[bobblehead]

It does sound like dealer is offering you at around 67-70% of the car's listed price (if your car back then was listed at $65,000 (closed to loaded)). Is this fair offering from dealer? It's certainly in the wholesale pricing neighborhood but really can't say unless you go and try out a few other bimmer dealers quote. In most likelihood, you may get another $1K more (thus $46K) at most.

Right now, you are hitting the upper end on the depreciation scale on brand new car, that is in the first 12-18 months time slot. Therefore, if you do go ahead, you will be penalizing your own wallet but then you already factored in this situation.

The ultimate decision can only be made by you. Some people do the swap because of wanting, rather than for financial implication. Like you said already ... "Gotta pay to play". For sure, you should press on for discount on the M car, if the dealer does not budge on price, then press for the factory winter wheels & tires package at the min. as inclusion on the deal. (the typical markup on this factory package would be around 35% by the dealer)

I change car every 1.75 to 2 yrs time span and I am in that "Gotta pay to play" group of drivers. I know exactly how much it costs me every time I do the swap.