Will used MY2015 M3 prices drop soon?

[M3NDOZA]

Im in the market for a used M3. I'm in SoCal. Current prices I have seen are around $53000 for a used 2015 with ~30,000 miles.
So I'm wondering if you guys think their will be a significant price drop once the 2018s drop and people start trading in/ or leases expire on their 2015s.

I'm waiting until I can walk out a dealer for under $50k. Thanks.

[Thescout13]

Originally Posted by M3NDOZA

Im in the market for a used M3. I'm in SoCal. Current prices I have seen are around $53000 for a used 2015 with ~30,000 miles.
So I'm wondering if you guys think their will be a significant price drop once the 2018s drop and people start trading in/ or leases expire on their 2015s.

I'm waiting until I can walk out a dealer for under $50k. Thanks.

I believe there will be a price drop, but I do not know if I would call it "significant." Maybe a few thousand by next year but then you will be buying a car that is 4 years old at that point, so the price would be commensurate to the market value. I do not think it will drop by $10k before the end of the year. If so that would suck for BMW FS.

[Jaymax85]

I think they will stabilize as f80 production stops in 2018... but we will see a mild dip once they start coming off warranty

[espressoo]

If you're looking/waiting to buy a MY2015 lease trade-in vehicle just look at this old pricing thread.

http://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=934675

The market would dictate prices but what I suggest doing is try to figure out the vehicle's MSRP. For a 10K/3yr lease, residuals was ~58%-60%. So if the used vehicle you were interested was $75K MSRP multiple that by 60% = $45K residual.

If someone wanted to sell you their car instead of returning their lease, this will give you a ballpark negotiation starting point. Again, the market conditions would determine prices but since you have a ballpark of the residual value it would help you in your negotiations. If you were to offer said person $2K above their residual perhaps they would sell you their vehicle. Now if a person was asking $50K, you know they're looking to pocket $5K selling it vs returning the lease. It's up to you to determine what's a fair price.

[PhaedeDPGH]

I just picked up a 2015 Yas Marina M3 with 6800 miles on it from a friend. He leased the car and had 2 payments left, I ended up just paying him 52,250 for the car. I think his payoff was $44,000. Another friend is the finance manager at the BMW dealership that kind of facilitated the deal and said that if they took the car in they were going to put it on the lot for 62,000.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by PhaedeDPGH

I just picked up a 2015 Yas Marina M3 with 6800 miles on it from a friend. He leased the car and had 2 payments left, I ended up just paying him 52,250 for the car. I think his payoff was $44,000. Another friend is the finance manager at the BMW dealership that kind of facilitated the deal and said that if they took the car in they were going to put it on the lot for 62,000.

Doesn't sound like a very good friend if he profited $8,250 from you.

[Jaymax85]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Doesn't sound like a very good friend if he profited $8,250 from you.

52k is fair market value for that car, he sounds like a fine friend.

[FriedPiston]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Doesn't sound like a very good friend if he profited $8,250 from you.

It could also go the other way if the buyer underpaid the seller, but that's why they say there are no friends in business.

[JuanK20]

I'm not sure about dealerships, but there are plenty private party F80's popping up for 50k or less already

This one seems like a good deal if you can get it under 50k:

http://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sea...52539537&pp=30

[espressoo]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Doesn't sound like a very good friend if he profited $8,250 from you.

Exactly. Sounds like a distant friend at best. I think your "friends" colluded on this deal. The dealership might have listed it for $62K but no way it would have sold for that price. You still got a decent deal on a low mileage car though. $50K might have been better from a friend but what's $2K amongst friends

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by HELLOimJ

52k is fair market value for that car, he sounds like a fine friend.

Based on what was said, his "friend" was leasing the vehicle and was 2 payments away from presumably turning it in. If the buyout was only $44k as stated, how is it "friendly" to profit so much at the expense of your friend? The friend pockets a nice chunk of change and the poster simply bought a car at market price.

[Jaymax85]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Based on what was said, his "friend" was leasing the vehicle and was 2 payments away from presumably turning it in. If the buyout was only $44k as stated, how is it "friendly" to profit so much at the expense of your friend? The friend pockets a nice chunk of change and the poster simply bought a car at market price.

Many people lease these vehicles with the knowledge that they can sell at the end of the lease. He had a product worth 52k, it's not unreasonable to get 52k for it. He could very well sell it to others for that much. I think for a friend to expect an 8k discount might be a bit outrageous.

[PhaedeDPGH]

Y’all are crazy auction reports on these cars are showing 10k miles for 52-55k... pretty hard to get a car anywhere cheaper than an auction unless it’s private party. I paid less than auction price for the car based on mileage, and it’s pretty much fully loaded with every single option. The car also came with burger intakes, jb4, extra wheels/snow tires, Springs and some wheel spacers.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by HELLOimJ

Many people lease these vehicles with the knowledge that they can sell at the end of the lease. He had a product worth 52k, it's not unreasonable to get 52k for it. He could very well sell it to others for that much. I think for a friend to expect an 8k discount might be a bit outrageous.

I was making my inference based on the limited info of the original post. The OP made it seem as if his buddies lease was ending and that was it, no mention of a sale. So if the friend was simply planning to turn in the lease like 99% of people do, I think its a jerk move to profit greatly off a friend, especially when you were expecting $0 anyway by turning it in.

Now if the friend was shopping the car and received an offer of $52k from a dealership and then offered it to his buddy at the same price thats a different story.

[PhaedeDPGH]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

I was making my inference based on the limited info of the original post. The OP made it seem as if his buddies lease was ending and that was it, no mention of a sale. So if the friend was simply planning to turn in the lease like 99% of people do, I think its a jerk move to profit greatly off a friend, especially when you were expecting $0 anyway by turning it in.

Now if the friend was shopping the car and received an offer of $52k from a dealership and then offered it to his buddy at the same price thats a different story.

That’s exactly what happened. He was debating keeping the car, he put a bunch down when he leased to have a cheaper monthly and planned to purchase the car. He was offered 52k from the dealer and instead I offered him 52k for the car. Why would he sell the car to me friend or not for a loss?

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by PhaedeDPGH

That’s exactly what happened. He was debating keeping the car, he put a bunch down when he leased to have a cheaper monthly and planned to purchase the car. He was offered 52k from the dealer and instead I offered him 52k for the car. Why would he sell the car to me friend or not for a loss?

1. That wasn't clear in your original post, which is what I was commenting on, and even caveated my post by stating such.

2. Unless he sold it to you at a price below the lease buyout then he would not suffer a loss, he just simply wouldn't have a gain

[HPIA4v2]

Originally Posted by PhaedeDPGH

That’s exactly what happened. He was debating keeping the car, he put a bunch down when he leased to have a cheaper monthly and planned to purchase the car. He was offered 52k from the dealer and instead I offered him 52k for the car. Why would he sell the car to me friend or not for a loss?

not an expert, but why dealer offer lessee more than RV on lease return?

Usually, if lessee ask how much the buy-out price, dealer either quotes RV or less than RV, not more

But the bottom line for you , that is a good price on a known car.

[Thescout13]

Originally Posted by HPIA4v2

not an expert, but why dealer offer lessee more than RV on lease return?

Usually, if lessee ask how much the buy-out price, dealer either quotes RV or less than RV, not more

But the bottom line for you , that is a good price on a known car.

Why not? I have never, I say again, never told a dealer that I leased or financed the car when I am asking them for a quote to take it off my hands. That comes later. They want to know your payoff to low ball you. When you go to Carmax or a dealer (more so with the dealer) ask them how much for the car. When they ask if it is leased or financed, you say that we can figure that out later I just want to know what my car is worth to you guys. If they come in at $52k and my RV was $44k then I drop the bomb on them and let them eat it while I walk away with cash or positive equity rolled into new lease.

You are assuming perfect information (that is that the dealer knows it is a lease). A dealer does not know until you tell them.

[HPIA4v2]

Originally Posted by Thescout13

Why not? I have never, I say again, never told a dealer that I leased or financed the car when I am asking them for a quote to take it off my hands. That comes later. They want to know your payoff to low ball you. When you go to Carmax or a dealer (more so with the dealer) ask them how much for the car. When they ask if it is leased or financed, you say that we can figure that out later I just want to know what my car is worth to you guys. If they come in at $52k and my RV was $44k then I drop the bomb on them and let them eat it while I walk away with cash or positive equity rolled into new lease.

You are assuming perfect information (that is that the dealer knows it is a lease). A dealer does not know until you tell them.

If that happens a whole lot of times, people shouldn't get mad on newer and lower RV from BMW for 2018 M3/M4 (actually all BMWs have lower RV now compare to the past).
Just recoup the gain at the end.