Autocar: Dirk Hacker hints next generation M3/M4 may not get manual transmission

[tetsuo111]

The data for USA and Canada are identical, therefore seems suspect or coincidental. Perhaps the sum total for both countries is 52.1%, with each contributing roughly a quarter of MT sales?

The data for all markets in total shows that over 25% of cars are sold with MTs.

So how does this management team rationalize killing the MT and discarding fully 25% of its M-Division customer base?

Originally Posted by mkoesel

SickFinga recently posted the MT take rate for the M3/M4 (I'm not sure if this is for the whole world or just the US):

He has also posted pre-LCI MT take rate for the M2:

http://f87.bimmerpost.com/forums/sho...20&postcount=1

[desertfox73]

My takeaways from this thread, pulled from previous posts:

1. Only manual drivers are "enthusiasts"
2. The M2 is the only "true sports sedan" BMW makes, despite the M3 and M4
3. BMW has sold its soul and must perish.

Ok the last one is a stretch.

[tetsuo111]

1) I would speculate that there are some enthusiasts driving ATs, too

2) Depends on how one defines a "true sports sedan". How would you?

3) Dunno, but one takeaway is that BMW places marketing and finance above engineering. Maybe they think that new BMW customers won't know the difference or won't care, or are too stupid, sort of like GM in the 70s and 80s.

Originally Posted by desertfox73

My takeaways from this thread, pulled from previous posts:

1. Only manual drivers are "enthusiasts"
2. The M2 is the only "true sports sedan" BMW makes, despite the M3 and M4
3. BMW has sold its soul and must perish.

Ok the last one is a stretch.

[CanAutM3]

Originally Posted by tetsuo111

3) Dunno, but one takeaway is that BMW places marketing and finance above engineering. Maybe they think that new BMW customers won't know the difference or won't care, or are too stupid, sort of like GM in the 70s and 80s.

And how do you reach that conclusion?

Modern AT and DCT are more technologically advanced and are the better performance option relative to traditional MT, which makes them the better engineering choice.

It is in fact marketing and finance that are keeping the MT alive. If there is enough take rate for the MT, it means a greater MARKET share for BMW which translates to better FINANCIALS.

[CanAutM3]

Originally Posted by tetsuo111

The data for USA and Canada are identical, therefore seems suspect or coincidental. Perhaps the sum total for both countries is 52.1%, with each contributing roughly a quarter of MT sales?

The data for all markets in total shows that over 25% of cars are sold with MTs.

So how does this management team rationalize killing the MT and discarding fully 25% of its M-Division customer base?

(read your own thread)

The article says the opposite. The M2 will continue to offer a MT option because the take rate is high enough on this specific model.

They are killing the MT on models for which the take rate is to low for it to be financially viable.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by tetsuo111

Maybe not. The cream of the crop enthusiast cars sold by Porsche, Chevy, Cadillac, Ford, Mazda, Honda, are available with MTs. So CARB regulations don't seem to limit all marques, just some.

While this is true for the most part, and particularly true for sports cars and sport coupes, it is worth noting that the M3 is one of just four passenger cars with four doors and a six cylinder (or more) engine left in the US with a manual transmission option. The other three are the BMW 340i, the Cadillac ATS-V, and the BMW M6 Gran Coupe. Moreover, the latter will be gone by 2019 (with the replacement M8 Gran Coupe known to not be getting an MT); the ATS-V's successor, the CT5-V, due around the end of the decade, may very well not offer a manual transmission either; and even the 340i's successor, the M340i, is not known for certain to be getting an MT.

Here's the recent discussion where some BimmerPost members exposed this fact:

http://f30.bimmerpost.com/forums/sho....php?t=1419143

So, when it comes to sedans at least, it's not just BMW. It's quite clearly an industry trend. If the next generation M3 gets an MT - and it just might - it could literally be the last high performance sedan in the country with an MT. One could suggest that this is all the more reason for BMW to hold out. Indeed, it seems at least plausible that this could factor into their decision.

As a coupe, the M4 naturally has a lot more company. But, if SickFinga's numbers are anything to go by, the M3 leads by percentage. Even by absolute numbers, the M3 might not be far behind the M4 coupe - we'd need total sales of each to determine that.

[YellowJacket3]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

While this is true for the most part, and particularly true for sports cars and sport coupes, it is worth noting that the M3 is one of just four passenger cars with four doors and a six cylinder (or more) engine left in the US with a manual transmission option. The other three are the BMW 340i, the Cadillac ATS-V, and the BMW M6 Gran Coupe. Moreover, the latter will be gone by 2019 (with the replacement M8 Gran Coupe known to not be getting an MT); the ATS-V's successor, the CT5-V, due around the end of the decade, may very well not offer a manual transmission either; and even the 340i's successor, the M340i, is not known for certain to be getting an MT.

Here's the recent discussion where some BimmerPost members exposed this fact:

http://f30.bimmerpost.com/forums/sho....php?t=1419143

So, when it comes to sedans at least, it's not just BMW. It's quite clearly an industry trend. If the next generation M3 gets an MT - and it just might - it could literally be the last high performance sedan in the country with an MT. One could suggest that this is all the more reason for BMW to hold out. Indeed, it seems at least plausible that this could factor into their decision.

As a coupe, the M4 naturally has a lot more company. But, if SickFinga's numbers are anything to go by, the M3 leads by percentage. Even by absolute numbers, the M3 might not be far behind the M4 coupe - we'd need total sales of each to determine that.

The 2018 Audi A4 still comes in a turbo V-6 with a manual transmission as well (but the sportier S4 does not).

I only bought an M3 because it was still one of the few sport sedans offered in a manual. I previously had an Infiniti G35S which, for the price, was a fantastic car. Their new 400hp model does not come with a manual, so I had to look elsewhere for a new car. After driving the Audi A4 and BMW 340i, I had basically resigned myself to just go ahead and get the automatic Infiniti. Then I made the mistake of driving an M3. Totally different price point, but mind was blown. And the rest is history.

[frankiebones]

Those of you who are concerned about the incremental costs associated with developing a manual transmission ("why would they develop what people aren't buying anymore!, etc.) are missing the point completely.

I have been in high level manufacturing my entire adult life, and there is certainly a cost associated with developing a 6MT for the G80.

However, all that development cost needs to cover for the tranmission to be profitable is the incremental sales driven by having a 6MT.

There are many among us who would never drive an auto. Our business will go elsewhere and sales will suffer. Sure they may increase as more people are attracted to the M Brand but the 6MT people, who remain some of the most passionate enthusiasts in the world, will go elsewhere.

Some of you are assuming some zero sum fantasy business model where we all just suck it up and buy our next M car in an automatic, as if the decisions BMW makes don't impact our purchase decisions.

In reality, the unintended benefactor of BMW's discontinuation of the 6MT will be Porsche and other cars like it. We will buy their cars in the future, for as long as we can.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by YellowJacket3

The 2018 Audi A4 still comes in a turbo V-6 with a manual transmission as well (but the sportier S4 does not).

Did you verify that before you posted? There is no A4 V6 anymore. Not in the US and not in Europe or elsewhere.

[JibSTir13]

Originally Posted by frankiebones

There are many among us who would never drive an auto. Our business will go elsewhere and sales will suffer. Sure they may increase as more people are attracted to the M Brand but the 6MT people, who remain some of the most passionate enthusiasts in the world, will go elsewhere.

Some of you are assuming some zero sum fantasy business model where we all just suck it up and buy our next M car in an automatic, as if the decisions BMW makes don't impact our purchase decisions.

In reality, the unintended benefactor of BMW's discontinuation of the 6MT will be Porsche and other cars like it. We will buy their cars in the future, for as long as we can.

Totally agree. I will have at least one manual transmission vehicle in the stable regardless. When the time comes to replace the F80, it will not be a BMW if manual transmissions are not offered.

Seems like the M2 will still be available for my next go around, but the coupe segment offers more options for an MT than the sedan, so BMW is on shaky ground (at least for me).

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by frankiebones

Those of you who are concerned about the incremental costs associated with developing a manual transmission ("why would they develop what people aren't buying anymore!, etc.) are missing the point completely.

You're counterpoint applies only when there are compelling M3 and M4 alternatives from competitors who offer a manual transmission.

But are there?

I've covered the M3 above, and there is only one: the ATS-V. In principle its a great car, but in practice they can barely move them off the lot. Were it the only one with a manual transmission, they might very well move more - I can definitely believe that. But it is this type of marketplace mechanics that BMW has case data for and will factor into their decision. They also will have inside information from suppliers and industry plants about how long the ATS-V will remain on the market and whether its successor is likely to have a manual transmission.

For the M4, there are more potential options, but none specifically in the M4's segment - luxury sports coupe/convertible. You bring up Porsche as an example. Yes, most of us here would be quite happy in a Porsche if it were a perfect world. But the reality is that a back seat provides utility that sports coupe buyers value and use at least on occasion (and if they don't then they should really have bought that Porsche to begin with). The 911 is a 2+2 with a tiny back seat that isn't really a substitute for a four seater, and the 718 has no back seat at all.

So yes, in theory BMW could lose some sales to competitors. But in practice, there aren't many direct competitors to lose sales to. The reason is that its not just BMW eliminating the manual transmission from their lineup. BMW is in fact one of the last to offer it in their performance cars. Instead, the manual transmission is simply disappearing from the market altogether.

[CanAutM3]

Originally Posted by frankiebones

Those of you who are concerned about the incremental costs associated with developing a manual transmission ("why would they develop what people aren't buying anymore!, etc.) are missing the point completely.

I have been in high level manufacturing my entire adult life, and there is certainly a cost associated with developing a 6MT for the G80.

However, all that development cost needs to cover for the tranmission to be profitable is the incremental sales driven by having a 6MT.

There are many among us who would never drive an auto. Our business will go elsewhere and sales will suffer. Sure they may increase as more people are attracted to the M Brand but the 6MT people, who remain some of the most passionate enthusiasts in the world, will go elsewhere.

Some of you are assuming some zero sum fantasy business model where we all just suck it up and buy our next M car in an automatic, as if the decisions BMW makes don't impact our purchase decisions.

In reality, the unintended benefactor of BMW's discontinuation of the 6MT will be Porsche and other cars like it. We will buy their cars in the future, for as long as we can.

I don’t think anyone has argued against what you just posted. The point of the total business case remains as the key decision: is the total cost of the development and certification of a MT option offset by the lost market share? If yes offer a MT, if not ditch the MT option.

[Draper]

Originally Posted by frankiebones

In reality, the unintended benefactor of BMW's discontinuation of the 6MT will be Porsche and other cars like it. We will buy their cars in the future, for as long as we can.

Most people who throw out the "I'm going with Porsche" quip have never actually priced out a comparable 911.

Is an MT worth a $30k+ premium?

[mkoesel]

^^^ To be fair, he didn't say 911. You can get a 718 for M4 money.

[tetsuo111]

Originally Posted by CanAutM3

Modern AT and DCT are more technologically advanced and are the better performance option relative to traditional MT, which makes them the better engineering choice.

Perhaps 'engineering' isn't the best term to describe what I'm referring to. Perhaps 'driver-centric' is better.

From a performance perspective, the transmission is irrelevant and makes no difference whatsoever for the 'average' driver (mass market) .

IME only ~ 5% of drivers of performance cars, regardless of AT/DCT/MT are capable of driving an 'ordinary' car like a 328i wagon (let alone a M4) proficiently and consistently over 7/10 (in a safe, closed environment).

The few tenths of a second advantage of any performance technology is simply irrelevant, aside from bragging privileges, unless a driver has the ability to operate the vehicle and assess the experience.

On the other hand, the MT is often mentioned as a contributor to the driving experience by many owners.

Gotta run - busy day

[minn19]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

^^^ To be fair, he didn't say 911. You can get a 718 for M4 money.

Or a baseish 911 S for a loaded M4 or CS money.

[YellowJacket3]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Did you verify that before you posted? There is no A4 V6 anymore. Not in the US and not in Europe or elsewhere.

I did actually try to verify, but looking again now, I guess I was wrong. Maybe I saw the new S4 specs for engine size before verifying that a manual is still available in the A4. Disappointing in either event : ( The days of the manual sport sedan are nearly dead. Looks like I will be keeping my M3 for quite a while!

[Draper]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

^^^ To be fair, he didn't say 911. You can get a 718 for M4 money.

A 718 with 4 seats?

Apples and oranges.

Originally Posted by minn19

Or a baseish 911 S for a loaded M4 or CS money.

I think you mean a LOADED!!! M4.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by YellowJacket3

I did actually try to verify, but looking again now, I guess I was wrong. Maybe I saw the new S4 specs for engine size before verifying that a manual is still available in the A4. Disappointing in either event : ( The days of the manual sport sedan are nearly dead. Looks like I will be keeping my M3 for quite a while!

All the European car manufacturers have been downsizing. What makes Audi unique, least to me, is the RS3 having the 5 cylinder. Benz and BMW don't do that, as far as I know even Porsche doesn't.

There are numerous reasons why MT is dying but the fact is, the take rate on them are just too low. Yeah you can shove it in a car but ???

Everyone here can complain but it isn't going to solve anything. Changes are on the horizon. People don't like change but that is how the world works. G80/G82/G-Chassis M2 could be the last real M BMW makes before the electric change.

As mkosel pointed out, ATS-V was reviewed well with well known car reviewers but that didn't equal it in sales. It is, at the bottom line, still a Cadillac and the brand comes with a distinction of being for old people. Cadillac hasn't bothered to try and change that perception. So Cadillac making a good car with a balanced chassis doesn't mean anything when they don't sell.

[PackPride85]

The upcoming BMW M2 CSL is going to catch one hell of a premium if it ends up being the last M car ever produced with a manual.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Draper

A 718 with 4 seats?

Apples and oranges.

Did you read my initial reply to him? I specifically addressed that point.

Nevertheless, the fact of the matter is that you *can* get a performance luxury car with a manual transmission that isn't an M3 or M4 if you are willing to give up some utility. As I say though, most people either do not want to or outright cannot give up that utility.

[Draper]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Did you read my initial reply to him? I specifically addressed that point.

Nevertheless, the fact of the matter is that you *can* get a performance luxury car with a manual transmission that isn't an M3 or M4 if you are willing to give up some utility. As I say though, most people either do not want to or outright cannot give up that utility.

But why even bring it up? This whole thread (and forum section) is devoted to the M3/M4, and in this regard the 911 (and maybe the Panamera) are the only offerings from Porsche that are close.

The M2 (which appears to be keeping it's MT option, at least for a bit longer) is more on par with the utility/purpose of a 718.