A discussion about reliability (DCT in particular)

[JoeFromPA]

These aren't even first year issues. They are first-made issues. And so far we have a couple of build quality questions, a one off DCT issue, and a hose clamp. Wow guys - you are right this cars a lemon. Cancel your orders

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by JoeFromPA

These aren't even first year issues. They are first-made issues. And so far we have a couple of build quality questions, a one off DCT issue, and a hose clamp. Wow guys - you are right this cars a lemon. Cancel your orders

I appreciate and agree with the distinction. Well said.

[Dinh335]

Originally Posted by jc05e46m3

I don't think it's sad. That' simply part of engineering design. When you;re dealing with something that is incredibly strong, is marketed as something you can drive from the dealership to a track and be competitive, but still does other things right, there's inherently going to be issues. I would love for them to "get it right" the first time as well, but this i simply part of the engineering process. Nothing is going to be perfect the first time and that is something that people need to understand. I would be super pissed if I had a DCT and it failed and would probably be knocking down doors to get it back immediately, but having an engineering background, it makes it very hard for me to get riled up. They fix problems that arise and make changes as the model progresses in its life cycle. That's why I don't blame those who are waiting for the LCI.

i don't expect it to be perfect, ...but major parts like a transmission failing shouldn't be expected..that's all I'm saying.

[Dinh335]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

You have misread and your quotes aren't stated correctly nor are they in context. Nearly everybody was empathetic from the very beginning. It wasn't until later in the thread that it shifted for other reasons.

jc05 said in his post issues are to be expected..i was commenting on that. it's been stated numerous times in this thread that it's a common DCT issue I didn't want to quote it x times that's all.

I'm not saying I want to be best friends with the OP or care about watches, nor think the next mayoral race should be decided on this issue.

[Dinh335]

Originally Posted by W///

And it's not just even BMW. At the end of the day, cars are so complex now that it is bound to happen. You just hope it's not you. Look at how many cars GM and Toyota (of all people) are recalling these days. Ford lost a whole bunch of profits this year because they had to spend so much on warranty costs.

The days when you see a 525i E34 go 200k miles with nothing but common maintenance is over now unfortunately.

Having said that, I hope to get an F80 in about 3 years.

I agree with you man, but the point that's being missed is that wouldn't it annoying if on those very same GM, FORD totyota forums people were saying things like "it's expected man, first year Cobalt with ignition problems".

[mkoesel]

To be clear there are no common DCT issues. There are transmission failures that occur in a tiny percentage of cars, probably a tenth of a percent (a SWAG, but good enough IMHO for the purposes of discussion). So let's just say for the sake of argument that DCT failures are 3X as common as MT failures. That means DCTs fail 7.5 hundredths of a percent of the time while MTs fail 2.5 hundredths of a percent of the time.

TL;DR: Transmission failures are rare.

[jc05e46m3]

Originally Posted by Dinh335

i don't expect it to be perfect, ...but major parts like a transmission failing shouldn't be expected..that's all I'm saying.

I get it. I totally agree. But these failures are extremely rare. It will happen, though. Just part of the game.

Originally Posted by mkoesel

To be clear there are no common DCT issues. There are transmission failures that occur in a tiny percentage of cars, probably a tenth of a percent (a SWAG, but good enough IMHO for the purposes of discussion). So let's just say for the sake of argument that DCT failures are 3X as common as MT failures. That means DCTs fail 7.5 hundredths of a percent of the time while MTs fail 2.5 hundredths of a percent of the time.

TL;DR: Transmission failures are rare.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

To be clear there are no common DCT issues. There are transmission failures that occur in a tiny percentage of cars, probably a tenth of a percent (a SWAG, but good enough IMHO for the purposes of discussion). So let's just say for the sake of argument that DCT failures are 3X as common as MT failures. That means DCTs fail 7.5 hundredths of a percent of the time while MTs fail 2.5 hundredths of a percent of the time.

TL;DR: Transmission failures are rare.

Well to be fair the e9x DCT had a decent set of problems...

That said I've never understood the this-car-is-spendy-so-it-shouldn't-have-problems thinking... It's quite the opposite: we're paying for production edge-engineering and light weight parts. Things are going to go wrong at a higher rate. And what's the extension of that thinking? That every Huayra is 100% failure free?

[BlueCoyote]

Originally Posted by Dinh335

i don't expect it to be perfect, ...but major parts like a transmission failing shouldn't be expected..that's all I'm saying.

Look at it this way. If only 1 out of every 10,000 transmissions has a major problem, that would mean that 99.99% of the transmissions are problem free--that would be a remarkable success rate. That means that if 30,000 transmissions are produced, we should "expect" 3 transmissions to fail. With productions on this large of a scale, there are bound to be some manufacturing issues due to chance variation. Any one person should not "expect" their transmission to crap out--but we certainly can expect it to happen to someone or two or even ten over the course of a few years. And it is more likely to happen sooner rather than later. Dondula happens to be that unlucky someone.

[Dinh335]

Originally Posted by BlueCoyote

Look at it this way. If only 1 out of every 10,000 transmissions has a major problem, that would mean that 99.99% of the transmissions are problem free--that would be a remarkable success rate. That means that if 30,000 transmissions are produced, we should "expect" 3 transmissions to fail. With productions on this large of a scale, there are bound to be some manufacturing issues due to chance variation. Any one person should not "expect" their transmission to crap out--but we certainly can expect it to happen to someone or two or even ten over the course of a few years. And it is more likely to happen sooner rather than later. Dondula happens to be that unlucky someone.

totally buy that, and agree...using those numbers though. ...however, we haven't hit those numbers with this car yet, thus, the only point I ever have tried to make is that there's no indication either way if this is a one off issue or not, or a larger issue, or just bad luck, we just don't have enough of a sample pool yet.

there seem to be a few who appear confident it's not a big deal, then there's some who are just pissed and hate the brand and think it's unacceptable in a car that costs x dollars. I'm somewhere in between. I understand it can happen, just curious as to why and want to make sure it doesn't point to a bigger issue.

None of this may not deter me from buying one. But I sure as hell want to see the thread finished and approach it a bit more openly in hopes we can gain something from it that's all.

[jc05e46m3]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well to be fair the e9x DCT had a decent set of problems...

That said I've never understood the this-car-is-spendy-so-it-shouldn't-have-problems thinking... It's quite the opposite: we're paying for production edge-engineering and light weight parts. Things are going to go wrong at a higher rate. And what's the extension of that thinking? That every Huayra is 100% failure free?

Well said.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well to be fair the e9x DCT had a decent set of problems...

Sure, but we are talking about complete failures requiring a replacement transmission. It's exceedingly rare no matter which type of transmission we are talking about, and that goes for any BMW or indeed any modern car.

Originally Posted by Dinh335

totally buy that, and agree...using those numbers though. ...however, we haven't hit those numbers with this car yet, thus, the only point I ever have tried to make is that there's no indication either way if this is a one off issue or not, or a larger issue, or just bad luck, we just don't have enough of a sample pool yet.

True enough. Indeed, if legitimate, it is alarming that another poster claimed in post #5 that an M3 at his local dealership (that he says he was supposed to be given the keys to for the weekend) has a DCT issue. Let's hope there's no widespread manufacturing defect or design flaw at play. Of course, even if his story is true, maybe the dealership decided it wasn't a good idea to loan out their launch car and just needed a good excuse.

[czarmar]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Sure, but we are talking about complete failures requiring a replacement transmission. It's exceedingly rare no matter which type of transmission we are talking about, and that goes for any BMW or indeed any modern car.

When it comes to servicing the DCT, either it works or it doesn't. It sounds like service's only resolution to the issues at this point is throw an entirely new transmission in it, regardless of how easy it would be to fix. Obviously BMW had determined that DCT failures were statistically expected to be low enough that it would be easier/cheaper(at least during the warrantee period) to just replace the DCTs rather than train the techs or try to get a DCT parts base here in NA.

My thought is that the problem could be traced to a small component failure, and this DCT probably will be back on the road as a remanufactured unit soon. BMW's transmission manufacturer will learn the failure root cause, and reengineer some shim to be .1 mil thicker for subsequent production, leaving the rest of the future DCT crowd with a more solid unit thanks to the early adopters' pain.

I'll stick with my 3 pedals, and enjoy the $2900 somewhere else, but not because the DCT is somehow a bad or unreliable transmission.

[M6-Coupe]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Sure, but we are talking about complete failures requiring a replacement transmission. It's exceedingly rare no matter which type of transmission we are talking about, and that goes for any BMW or indeed any modern car.

As far as I was told, dealers are not allowed to re-build transmission and differential; so any failures causes replacement!

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by M6-Coupe

As far as I was told, dealers are not allowed to re-build transmission and differential; so any failures causes replacement!

That's my understanding as well.

[GregW / Oregon]

Originally Posted by M6-Coupe

As far as I was told, dealers are not allowed to re-build transmission and differential; so any failures causes replacement!

There's always AAMCO!

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by GregW / Oregon

There's always AAMCO!

Hehehehe! Double A, MCO!

[BimmerBoomer]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

To be clear there are no common DCT issues. There are transmission failures that occur in a tiny percentage of cars, probably a tenth of a percent (a SWAG, but good enough IMHO for the purposes of discussion). So let's just say for the sake of argument that DCT failures are 3X as common as MT failures. That means DCTs fail 7.5 hundredths of a percent of the time while MTs fail 2.5 hundredths of a percent of the time.

TL;DR: Transmission failures are rare.

Actually, your approach doesn't even make sense: a DCT fails what % of what time? The question to be asked here is what is the mean mileage before failure of a DCT? And what is the variance? I'm sure BMW knows.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by czarmar

When it comes to servicing the DCT, either it works or it doesn't. It sounds like service's only resolution to the issues at this point is throw an entirely new transmission in it, regardless of how easy it would be to fix.

Originally Posted by M6-Coupe

As far as I was told, dealers are not allowed to re-build transmission and differential; so any failures causes replacement!

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

That's my understanding as well.

Correct.

But I was addressing this statement:

"Well to be fair the e9x DCT had a decent set of problems..."

I should have been more explicit, so let me do so now. The vast majority of DCT issues (and I do acknowledge there were a number of them effecting a large group of owners) were corrected by software updates. This is fact.

So then, although the DCT in the E9x M3 faced some early problems that were widely publicized (rightly and deservedly so), they were nearly all fixed with a simple service appointment. Very few owners have required a new transmission over the years, and when they have it has been due to very isolated manufacturing incidents, dealerships performing improper fluid changes, or brought about by subjecting them to more torque than they are designed to withstand. There has been absolutely no systemic DCT issue in any BMW that required replacement of the transmission unit itself.

Hopefully we are clear now.

Originally Posted by BimmerBoomer

Actually, your approach doesn't even make sense: a DCT fails what % of what time? The question to be asked here is what is the mean mileage before failure of a DCT? And what is the variance? I'm sure BMW knows.

What doesn't make sense is over complicating it. BMW built ~60k E9x M3s. I suggested that probably 60 (on the order of 1 in 1000) will have transmission failures. When? Sometime during the typical 1xx,xxx mile service life people expect from an automobile. 45 DCTs, 15 MTs. That's it.

Am I right? Who the hell knows. But I bet I'm not way out in left field. If you think you've got a better guess then the floor is yours to share it.

[BimmerBoomer]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

What doesn't make sense is over complicating it. BMW built ~60k E9x M3s. I suggested that probably 60 (on the order of 1 in 1000) will have transmission failures. When? Sometime during the typical 1xx,xxx mile service life people expect from an automobile.

45 DCTs, 15 MTs

That's it.

Am I right? Who the hell knows. But I bet I'm not way out in left field. If you think you've got a better guess then the floor is yours to share it.

Just some facts. I know that mine was shot in 140,000 k. Not to the point of failure, but throwing codes, not showing up in the dash a couple of times and the occasional really rough shift. No mods, no track, no fluid issues. There are two clutch packs and a couple of solenoids in there with a limited lifespan. And there's nothing stopping BMW from replacing them: it just isn't worth their while.

[mkoesel]

Ok well, using your approach, now if we can just get the other ~60k owners to chime in, we'll be all set.

Tell you what, I'll go next. Mine is perfect at 95k miles. (more than I can say for the engine unfortunately)

So far, I'm not seeing any reason to change my estimates, but perhaps when we get more data, I'll reconsider.

Cheers.

[JL M3]

I just hope BMW covers these issues without much fuss.

Bringing back bad memories of my e46 m3. Anyone remember this?
http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24409

Many people had to pay $11k before this bulletin came out. I was almost one of them.