Speculation on M3/M4 mix and past M3 Production Stats

[myzmak]

There have been a few threads from time to time wondering what the production stats of past M models has been like.

Noticed today that the wikipedia page now has a collection of 'past M models' which gives some production numbers, and thought it might be of interest to put those numbers together here in one thread:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_M#Current_Full_M_Cars

So, for instance, the E9X M3 is thus:

9,606 + 68 M3 CRT (Sedan);
39,954 + 118 M3 GTS (Coupé);
16,219 (Convertible);
(total: 65,965)

The E46 was 85,744, meaning (as has been noted elsewhere) production was down on the previous model.

Even the E36 outsold the E9X by around 6,000 cars (which I did not know).

Also interesting is how many more Coupes there were than Sedans on the last one (I knew there were more, but not that much) and, for that matter, how there were more cabs than sedans last go around.

I expect that historic division is why BMW expected to sell so many more M4s than M3s this time around. Have a hunch that ratio will not hold on the F8X as I think the M3 will do better, relatively, than the last Sedan did....but I guess we'll see.

[Carl L]

Interesting stats, thanks for posting. In my opinion, the E90 was a very weedy looking car, the E92 looked so much better. The F8x fixes that and is a return to the good looks of the E46 sedan. Therefore I agree that BMW have probably underestimated F80 sales compared to F82 due to the last gen sedan vs coupe sales #s. I hope I'm wrong though, only seen one F80 other than my own out on the roads compared to 7 F82s and I kinda like that even though it won't last.

[FogCityM3]

Think the M3 sedan looks significantly better proportioned than the M4 which you could not say in the prior gen, which I think was hampered by the taillights. Would not be surprised to the new M3 sedan to improve upon the ratio of sedan to coupe vs prior gen.

[mkoesel]

I agree that the F80 M3 sedan is likely to take a larger percentage of over all M3/M4 sales this generation than in the past E36 and E9x generations. However, I think that aesthetics will have very little to do with it. Instead the reasons I would cite are:

1. Economics. The car sits in a price bracket where owners will have a higher average age. As such, the typical buyer will seek more practicality whether it be to accommodate family or just fit the buyer's intentions to exhibit a more mature image. Think M5 vs. M6 appeal - similar effect begins to come into play with the M3 vs. M4 now too.

2. Familiarity. This is the first M3 sedan that follows directly on a prior generation M3 sedan. So, it has the benefit of the awareness from those who first learned that an M3 sedan exists by seeing one on the road (or just hearing about it online and so forth) over the past few years, but already had a long term car commitment purchase that would prohibit them from buying one at the time.

3. Name. The M3 name is more well known than the brand new M4 name.

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

I agree that the F80 M3 sedan is likely to take a larger percentage of over all M3/M4 sales this generation than in the past E36 and E9x generations. However, I think that aesthetics will have very little to do with it. Instead the reasons I would cite are:

1. Economics. The car sits in a price bracket where owners will have a higher average age. As such, the typical buyer will seek more practicality whether it be to accommodate family or just fit the buyer's intentions to exhibit a more mature image. Think M5 vs. M6 appeal - similar effect begins to come into play with the M3 vs. M4 now too.

2. Familiarity. This is the first M3 sedan that follows directly on a prior generation M3 sedan. So, it has the benefit of the awareness from those who first learned that an M3 sedan exists by seeing one on the road (or just hearing about it online and so forth) over the past few years, but already had a long term car commitment purchase that would prohibit them from buying one at the time.

3. Name. The M3 name is more well known than the brand new M4 name.

I believe all of your points are valid but also believe aesthetics will play a role. Whereas in generations when the coupe was undeniably better looking, meaning families might push into the coupe body form, some family minded buyers (myself, as an example) will happily choose the sedan as we believe that we have the more attractive package in addition to the practical benefits.

[tdizzle]

Random dumb question: was he sedan offered every year that the coupe was?

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by tdizzle

Random dumb question: was he sedan offered every year that the coupe was?

Not with E90. I believe started later and it ended earlier.

[IB M]

The M3 looks so good I would not be surprised if M3 sales = M4 sales when it is all said and done.

[SOM3]

Originally Posted by myzmak

Not with E90. I believe started later and it ended earlier.

I don't belive E46 or E30 M3 had a sedan counterpart.

[JoeFromPA]

Correct, this is the first M3 with a sedan version offered at launch IIRC and appears to make no real compromise in weight or performance, AND costs less, AND does not appear to make an aesthetic compromise.

My guess is the sales volume will be equal and they'll keep the sedan in the entire production run.

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by SOM3

I don't belive E46 or E30 M3 had a sedan counterpart.

That was my suspicion but didn't want to assume because you know what happens then....

[SickFinga]

Originally Posted by myzmak

So, for instance, the E9X M3 is thus:

9,606 + 68 M3 CRT (Sedan);
39,954 + 118 M3 GTS (Coupé);
16,219 (Convertible);
(total: 65,965)

You might want to check this thread

http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=863761

Originally Posted by myzmak

I expect that historic division is why BMW expected to sell so many more M4s than M3s this time around. Have a hunch that ratio will not hold on the F8X as I think the M3 will do better, relatively, than the last Sedan did....but I guess we'll see.

M4 Coupe is outselling M3 by quite a margin.

By the end of September, BMW built 2400 US/Canadian spec M4s and only 1250 M3s

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by SickFinga

You might want to check this thread

http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=863761

Yeah, I had linked to that thread in some of the earlier discussions that I referenced. The 8k delta between the wiki stats and the ones you had compiled is interesting. Unfortunately, the wiki stats don't give a source....

M4 Coupe is outselling M3 by quite a margin.

By the end of September, BMW built 2400 US/Canadian spec M4s and only 1250 M3s

yes, but that is less of a margin than BMW predicted and less than for the past models (which was one of the points I was trying to make). Relative to previous sedan AND BMW's own predictions for the F8x, the M3 is selling a lot better than expected. (essentially 1:2 thus far vs. 1:4 on E90)

[SickFinga]

Originally Posted by myzmak

Yeah, I had linked to that thread in some of the earlier discussions that I referenced. The 8k delta between the wiki stats and the ones you had compiled is interesting. Unfortunately, the wiki stats don't give a source....

I added production data to the Wikipedia. The reason for the 8k difference is because when the pdf for the bimmerpost was compiled E93 M3 LCI was still in production. Somewhere near the end of that thread I posted E93 data

Originally Posted by myzmak

yes, but that is less of a margin than BMW predicted and less than for the past models (which was one of the points I was trying to make). Relative to previous sedan AND BMW's own predictions for the F8x, the M3 is selling a lot better than expected. (essentially 1:2 thus far vs. 1:4 on E90)

E90 M3 ended production in 2011, E92 continued production all the way to 2013. So it it is not really fair to compare the overall production data. If you check the production by model year, the ratio isn't that different

2008 E90 - 2280
2008 E92 - 4145

2009 E90 - 964
2009 E92 - 2238

2010 E90 - 453
2010 E92 - 1117

2011 E90 - 2170
2011 E92 - 3905

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by SickFinga

I added production data to the Wikipedia. The reason for the 8k difference is because when the pdf for the bimmerpost was compiled E93 M3 LCI was still in production. Somewhere near the end of that thread I posted E93 data

E90 M3 ended production in 2011, E92 continued production all the way to 2013. So it it is not really fair to compare the overall production data. If you check the production by model year, the ratio isn't that different

2008 E90 - 2280
2008 E92 - 4145

2009 E90 - 964
2009 E92 - 2238

2010 E90 - 453
2010 E92 - 1117

2011 E90 - 2170
2011 E92 - 3905

Cheers.

You are clearly the man when it comes to M3 production data.

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by SickFinga

M4 Coupe is outselling M3 by quite a margin.

By the end of September, BMW built 2400 US/Canadian spec M4s and only 1250 M3s

Hey man, as I recall you seemed to have good stats on production numbers.

Any chance you have the 2014 data on F80 / F82 / F83?

Would be curious....

[Accel Junky]

Fascinating. I had no idea the E46 was the most common. I thought for sure the E36.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by Accel Junky

Fascinating. I had no idea the E46 was the most common. I thought for sure the E36.

I believe it. I see e46s all over the place. I still dont see many e9x or f8x in the wild.

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by dmk08

I believe it. I see e46s all over the place. I still dont see many e9x or f8x in the wild.

I see quite a few E9x. Have only once caught a glimpse of another F8x.

E46 are fairly common.....more than E36, but many of those are likely starting to be 'retired'.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

I agree that the F80 M3 sedan is likely to take a larger percentage of over all M3/M4 sales this generation than in the past E36 and E9x generations. However, I think that aesthetics will have very little to do with it. Instead the reasons I would cite are:

1. Economics. The car sits in a price bracket where owners will have a higher average age. As such, the typical buyer will seek more practicality whether it be to accommodate family or just fit the buyer's intentions to exhibit a more mature image. Think M5 vs. M6 appeal - similar effect begins to come into play with the M3 vs. M4 now too.

2. Familiarity. This is the first M3 sedan that follows directly on a prior generation M3 sedan. So, it has the benefit of the awareness from those who first learned that an M3 sedan exists by seeing one on the road (or just hearing about it online and so forth) over the past few years, but already had a long term car commitment purchase that would prohibit them from buying one at the time.

3. Name. The M3 name is more well known than the brand new M4 name.

You bring up good points, but I have to disagree. Historically by the data and some unfair advantages (coupe on sale longer than sedan) show the M4 will continue to far outsell the M3.

As posted by another member, it looks like the very early hard data is showing this as well. If you look at random dealer stock it looks like there are five M4s to every one M3 on the lot. This could be for numerous reasons, but dealers obviously tend to stock what sells the fastest.

Anecdotal evidence seems to be on the side of the M4 winning the sales battle as well. I could be wrong, but it seems like many more forum members have M4s over M3s.

It is such a bummer too, since it is a well known fact the F80 M3 is the best looking car of three F8X cars.

[OneRib]

E9xx was hampered by high gas prices and the economic crash (at least in the US).

F8xx is really the right car at the right moment and I would expect sales to surpass all previous gen 3 series based M cars.

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by minn19

You bring up good points, but I have to disagree. Historically by the data and some unfair advantages (coupe on sale longer than sedan) show the M4 will continue to far outsell the M3.

As posted by another member, it looks like the very early hard data is showing this as well. If you look at random dealer stock it looks like there are five M4s to every one M3 on the lot. This could be for numerous reasons, but dealers obviously tend to stock what sells the fastest.

Actually, I take that data point the other way. The high stock of M4s tells me dealers cannot sell them as easily as the M3, which are comparatively 'flying' off the shelves.

While the M4 will outsell the M3, my guess is that if the production capacity is there the M3 will do better relative to the coupe this time around....because it is OBVIOUSLY so much better looking.