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      01-27-2015, 08:58 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myzmak View Post
Actually, I take that data point the other way. The high stock of M4s tells me dealers cannot sell them as easily as the M3, which are comparatively 'flying' off the shelves.

While the M4 will outsell the M3, my guess is that if the production capacity is there the M3 will do better relative to the coupe this time around....because it is OBVIOUSLY so much better looking.
Good point, definitely another way to look at it.
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      01-27-2015, 08:59 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IB M View Post
The M3 looks so good I would not be surprised if M3 sales = M4 sales when it is all said and done.
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      01-27-2015, 09:01 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myzmak View Post
Hey man, as I recall you seemed to have good stats on production numbers.

Any chance you have the 2014 data on F80 / F82 / F83?

Would be curious....
They've been in production for only 6 month. Not much useful data there yet.
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      01-27-2015, 09:12 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I agree that the F80 M3 sedan is likely to take a larger percentage of over all M3/M4 sales this generation than in the past E36 and E9x generations. However, I think that aesthetics will have very little to do with it. Instead the reasons I would cite are:

1. Economics. The car sits in a price bracket where owners will have a higher average age. As such, the typical buyer will seek more practicality whether it be to accommodate family or just fit the buyer's intentions to exhibit a more mature image. Think M5 vs. M6 appeal - similar effect begins to come into play with the M3 vs. M4 now too.

2. Familiarity. This is the first M3 sedan that follows directly on a prior generation M3 sedan. So, it has the benefit of the awareness from those who first learned that an M3 sedan exists by seeing one on the road (or just hearing about I online and so forth) over the past few years, but already had a long term car commitment purchase that would prohibit them from buying one at the time.

3. Name. The M3 name is more well known than the brand new M4 name.

Not disagreeing, just highly skeptical we will see the M3 numbers overtake (or even approach) the M4. A coupe buyer is looking for a coupe. A sedan, well a sedan. Coupe owners will most likely show repeat coupe purchases.

Also, it is still a sports car. Most sports car buyers prefer a coupe as it is perceived as being more ... Sporty.

Dealerships seem to be disproportionally stocking M4's. To the point where I found it very difficult to even locate an M3 on the lot. And I know its not because they sold them all.
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      01-27-2015, 09:33 PM   #27
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myzmak, I'm in agreement with all of what you have to say in this thread. one thing I think you're forgetting though is that the production ratio of M4's : M3's is more or less set by BMW rather than demand. I wouldn't be surprised if they begin shifting more production toward the sedan as they see them spending less time on dealer lots.

no question in my mind that the demand for the sedan vs. the coupe is significantly stronger than it was in the previous generation, even if it won't ever reach parity with the coupe. the hips on the sedan just give it a presence and aggressiveness that isn't quite there with the coupe.
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      01-27-2015, 09:55 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SickFinga View Post
They've been in production for only 6 month. Not much useful data there yet.
Yeah, too early for any major trends....mostly, as I said, just curious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brosef View Post
myzmak, I'm in agreement with all of what you have to say in this thread. one thing I think you're forgetting though is that the production ratio of M4's : M3's is more or less set by BMW rather than demand. I wouldn't be surprised if they begin shifting more production toward the sedan as they see them spending less time on dealer lots.
Sorry, didn't mean to imply otherwise. Clearly BMW estimates their expected demand and set initial production based on that but, as time goes on, they can/will adjust their production runs based on demand. If I recall, they originally estimated a 4:1 M4:M3 ratio. I don't know if it will ever be equal but.....I guess we'll see.....
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      01-27-2015, 10:26 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myzmak View Post
Yeah, too early for any major trends....mostly, as I said, just curious.
Well, the only trend I see right now is that between September and now, F82 has increased the lead. Not by much, but still it it pulling ahead of F80.


Quote:
Originally Posted by myzmak View Post
If I recall, they originally estimated a 4:1 M4:M3 ratio. I don't know if it will ever be equal but.....I guess we'll see.....
What's the source on that ratio?
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      01-27-2015, 10:31 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SickFinga View Post
Well, the only trend I see right now is that between September and now, F82 has increased the lead. Not by much, but still it it pulling ahead of F80.




What's the source on that ratio?
Pure memory

And I was wrong

BMW projected a 7:1 ratio.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/bmw...-daily-driver/

....which I seriously doubt they are going to end up with.....

Edit: also quoted here https://www.carthrottle.com/post/why...e-ever-driven/
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      01-28-2015, 05:02 AM   #31
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BMW M3 Vs M4: Which Would You Have As Your Deadly Daily Driver

Based on predicted figures, BMW estimates that a massive''

61 per cent of sales will go to the M4 coupe during the car’s life cycle, which is followed by 28 per cent for the forthcoming M4 convertible
and 11 per cent for the M3 saloon.
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      01-28-2015, 06:26 AM   #32
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I also believe the sedan will do much better Vs the coupe this time around. The fact that it's more practical for me and doesn't sacrifice much if any performance is a big deal. Also I have a vert DD and owned a coupe before and now I am a little older. Maybe the higher demand for the 4dr is because the average age of M drivers is getting up there and we just want the practicality.
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      01-28-2015, 06:30 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myzmak View Post
Pure memory

And I was wrong

BMW projected a 7:1 ratio.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/bmw...-daily-driver/

....which I seriously doubt they are going to end up with.....

Edit: also quoted here https://www.carthrottle.com/post/why...e-ever-driven/
Not surprised.

If you look at some of the M4 stock at some of these dealers Absolutely insane.



And I'd rather have the M3, even if the car was free.
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      01-28-2015, 07:01 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myzmak View Post
I see quite a few E9x. Have only once caught a glimpse of another F8x.

E46 are fairly common.....more than E36, but many of those are likely starting to be 'retired'.

I wanted to buy an e36 m as a "beater/airport" car. Guys have lost their damn minds with current e36 prices.
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      01-28-2015, 07:18 AM   #35
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It doesn't help that the E90/E92 was the heaviest M3 available either. A lot of people also forget about the amount of hate the V8 got when it was first introduced. People claimed it wasn't a real "M" because it wasn't an inline 6 and it weighed as much as the previous 5 series.
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      01-28-2015, 07:26 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiago@VRSF View Post
It doesn't help that the E90/E92 was the heaviest M3 available either. A lot of people also forget about the amount of hate the V8 got when it was first introduced. People claimed it wasn't a real "M" because it wasn't an inline 6 and it weighed as much as the previous 5 series.
And now a "real M" is a v8. Crazy how times change eh?
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      01-28-2015, 09:22 AM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmk08 View Post
And now a "real M" is a v8. Crazy how times change eh?
LOL

When we were looking for a shop car (M3) it was hard to find any on dealer lots. Crazy amounts of M4s but M3s definitely harder to find to even look at.

Mike
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      01-28-2015, 10:21 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Falafel Combo View Post
Not disagreeing, just highly skeptical we will see the M3 numbers overtake (or even approach) the M4.
Possibly not, but then you may notice I didn't necessarily say that would happen either. I only said that I thought the sedan would represent a higher percentage of sales than in past generations.

Quote:
A coupe buyer is looking for a coupe. A sedan, well a sedan. Coupe owners will most likely show repeat coupe purchases.
... and sedan owners will most likely show repeat sedan purchases. But I don't see how any of that is important.

The market for sedans is obviously larger than that for coupes, so raw numbers favor the sedan form factor. Now we can observe and reasonably conclude that, as a buyer's priorities tend toward performance, the coupe form factor's popularity also increases. But there is plenty of room for performance sedans as you can see with popular models such as the C63, M5, or S4 for example.

Quote:
Also, it is still a sports car. Most sports car buyers prefer a coupe as it is perceived as being more ... Sporty.
A sedan is quite clearly not a sports car.

However, since you brought it up, it begs the question - when you take two doors off a sedan, re-contour the roofline, and change little else (which is what a 4 Series is to a 3 Series, and what a M4 is to an M3) do you genuinely now have a sports car? We won't debate that here, but I would encourage you to ponder that and discuss it in the appropriate thread which you can locate via search if you have an opinion.

Quote:
Dealerships seem to be disproportionally stocking M4's. To the point where I found it very difficult to even locate an M3 on the lot. And I know its not because they sold them all.
Dealerships are stocking what BMW is building. BMW is building what BMW predicts they'll need based on a number of factors including past sales figures. If, however, customer interests change and they see a trend, they can adjust numbers as production of the product goes on.
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      01-28-2015, 10:24 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
Possibly not, but then you may notice I didn't necessarily say that would happen either. I only said that I thought the sedan would represent a higher percentage of sales than in past generations.



... and sedan owners will most likely show repeat sedan purchases. But I don't see how any of that is important.

The market for sedans is obviously larger than that for coupes, so raw numbers favor the sedan form factor. Now we can observe and reasonably conclude that, as a buyer's priorities tend toward performance, the coupe form factor's popularity also increases. But there is plenty of room for performance sedans as you can see with popular models such as the C63, M5, or S4 for example.



A sedan is quite clearly not a sports car.

However, since you brought it up, it begs the question - when you take two doors off a sedan, re-contour the roofline, and change little else (which is what a 4 Series is to a 3 Series, and what a M4 is to an M3) do you genuinely now have a sports car? We won't debate that here, but I would encourage you to ponder that and discuss it in the appropriate thread which you can locate via search if you have an opinion.



Dealerships are stocking what BMW is building. BMW is building what BMW predicts they'll need based on a number of factors including past sales figures. If, however, customer interests change and they see a trend, they can adjust numbers as production of the product goes on.

I went sedan -> coupe -> sedan. It happens. I have never felt my M sedans to be 'less sporty' than the coupe counters. Hell my next car may be an M2.
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      01-28-2015, 10:41 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmk08 View Post
I went sedan -> coupe -> sedan. It happens. I have never felt my M sedans to be 'less sporty' than the coupe counters. Hell my next car may be an M2.
For sure. My current car is the first sedan I've ever owned as my personal DD (others were the wife's DD that I also drove). Most of my past daily drivers were convertibles.

Nevertheless, I think it is fair to say that most people stick with what form factor suits them until they have a reason to change (start a family or, conversely, send kids off to college, for example).
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      01-28-2015, 10:57 AM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
Possibly not, but then you may notice I didn't necessarily say that would happen either. I only said that I thought the sedan would represent a higher percentage of sales than in past generations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I agree that the F80 M3 sedan is likely to take a larger percentage of over all M3/M4 sales this generation than in the past E36 and E9x generations.
M3 sedan is likely to take a larger percentage of overall M3/M4 sales this generation ... Hmmmm. I guess that was crystal clear. My bad.
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      01-28-2015, 11:21 AM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
You bring up good points, but I have to disagree. Historically by the data and some unfair advantages (coupe on sale longer than sedan) show the M4 will continue to far outsell the M3.
See my reply above to Falafel.

Having said that, I do recall once suggesting that there could be a period of time over which the F80 M3 would outsell the F82 M4.

I don't think it will happen necessarily, but to me the disparity in the numbers when you compare 3 Series and 4 Series sales (where the sedan absolutely obliterates the coupe) to M3 and M4 sales represents lost opportunity on BMW's part. If more 335i buyers were aware of the M3, and more specifically, were aware that it gives up nearly nothing to the 335i (I am talking about the sDrive model here) in terms of practicality and functionality, I suspect they could convert an appreciable number (let's say 15% as a SWAG) of those 335i sales to M3 sales. I don't know how much that would be in absolute terms, but it would be in the thousands of vehicles I'd have to guess. Granted what you really want are conquest sales but failing to upsell obviously represents lost revenue as well.
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      01-28-2015, 11:55 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
See my reply above to Falafel.

Having said that, I do recall once suggesting that there could be a period of time over which the F80 M3 would outsell the F82 M4.

I don't think it will happen necessarily, but to me the disparity in the numbers when you compare 3 Series and 4 Series sales (where the sedan absolutely obliterates the coupe) to M3 and M4 sales represents lost opportunity on BMW's part. If more 335i buyers were aware of the M3, and more specifically, were aware that it gives up nearly nothing to the 335i (I am talking about the sDrive model here) in terms of practicality and functionality, I suspect they could convert an appreciable number (let's say 15% as a SWAG) of those 335i sales to M3 sales. I don't know how much that would be in absolute terms, but it would be in the thousands of vehicles I'd have to guess. Granted what you really want are conquest sales but failing to upsell obviously represents lost revenue as well.
I agree with this. BMW completely missed it this time around. The F80 looks fantastic and is a lot closer to the F30 than the E90 M3 ever was to the E90 335i.
With the turbo engine, even the mileage is decent.
We will always wonder how many M3's could have been sold if they had started out with a higher production target. It may be an opportunity forever lost because the average consumer is not waiting months to get an M3. They will buy something else and it may not be BMW.
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      01-28-2015, 11:56 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I don't think it will happen necessarily, but to me the disparity in the numbers when you compare 3 Series and 4 Series sales (where the sedan absolutely obliterates the coupe) to M3 and M4 sales represents lost opportunity on BMW's part. If more 335i buyers were aware of the M3, and more specifically, were aware that it gives up nearly nothing to the 335i (I am talking about the sDrive model here) in terms of practicality and functionality, I suspect they could convert an appreciable number (let's say 15% as a SWAG) of those 335i sales to M3 sales.
Absolutely. Having just done that... building a loaded 335, it came in at where the M starts. Many of the options on the 335 with the M Sport option are already standard on the M. Add in a few more k, and for little more $, you have an M. You'll lose the xDrive like I will, but unless that is a "must have" to you, the M really is almost a "no-brainer"! Why get a 335 with "M" crap on it if you can have the real deal instead?
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