Speculation on M3/M4 mix and past M3 Production Stats

[minn19]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

See my reply above to Falafel.

Having said that, I do recall once suggesting that there could be a period of time over which the F80 M3 would outsell the F82 M4.

I don't think it will happen necessarily, but to me the disparity in the numbers when you compare 3 Series and 4 Series sales (where the sedan absolutely obliterates the coupe) to M3 and M4 sales represents lost opportunity on BMW's part. If more 335i buyers were aware of the M3, and more specifically, were aware that it gives up nearly nothing to the 335i (I am talking about the sDrive model here) in terms of practicality and functionality, I suspect they could convert an appreciable number (let's say 15% as a SWAG) of those 335i sales to M3 sales. I don't know how much that would be in absolute terms, but it would be in the thousands of vehicles I'd have to guess. Granted what you really want are conquest sales but failing to upsell obviously represents lost revenue as well.

For some reason, I think a lot of people think an M3 is out of reach compared to a 335 when in reality it really isn't/doesn't have to be. Or people are already financially reaching for a 335 and can't afford anymore car. I know you mentioned this, but I think people are afraid of RWD and are opting for xDrive 335s for a number of reasons. I was nervous about this and I have a ton of RWD experience in adverse conditions. A lot of people don't anymore and I think this deters a lot of them. Last, it seems like a lot of people are just about 0-60 numbers and not the overall experience. When people see you can get a 50K 335 xDrive with MPPK and it will go 0-60 in 4.4 seconds that this steals sales from the M3 as well.

Any way, I agree with your main point and it is odd how the numbers are flip flopped between the models. Could be any number of factors as to why this is.

[JoeFromPA]

Not knocking prior generations, but I think this is the first gen where the sedan body style is simply a better looking (to most, not all) body than the coupe. Between the fender flares but also the rear 3/4 view where the coupe is simply too long of a body, there's a real case to be made that the coupe is no longer the "looker" of the two.

Combine that with:

- Both are now available with unpainted CF roofs
- The weight difference is very modest between the two
- There's no documented meaningful/notable perf diff between the two
- The sedan is a few grand less expensive for the same content
- Sedan functionality

And I agree with mkoesel that this generation is going to see much better m3 sales.

Now I think the biggest hold on m3 sales is going to be this: Dealers and BMWs are going to build for a historical spread, so inventory availability is going to be quite low on m3s. Which will push people who could choose either car to choose an m4.

We shall see...

[X2Board]

Originally Posted by SickFinga

2010 E90 - 453

I had no idea that my '10 was a "limited edition" build.

[CanAutM3]

Originally Posted by JoeFromPA

- The weight difference is very modest between the two

The weight difference between the F8X M3 and M4 is nearly the same as the difference between the E90 and E92 M3: ~50lb

Originally Posted by JoeFromPA

- The sedan is a few grand less expensive for the same content

While the M4 is more expensive than the M3 everywhere in the world, the price difference is not always as large as it is in the US. For instance, in Canada, there is only a $1000CAD ($800USD) difference. In Germany, it is 700EUR (also $800 USD).

Originally Posted by JoeFromPA

the sedan body style is simply a better looking (to most, not all) body than the coupe. Between the fender flares but also the rear 3/4 view where the coupe is simply too long of a body, there's a real case to be made that the coupe is no longer the "looker" of the two.

I would like to see actual stats on that...

To me, the coupe is the better looking of the two. My wife and I spent a couple of hours around the two at the Montreal car show trying to decide which was the nicest. We both agreed on the coupe despite having two young kids and the lower rear headroom in the M4. I must say though that this is the best looking 4 door M3 ever, that front 3/4 view with those hips is stunning. But I still prefer the sleeker overall look of the M4.

In the end, beauty is the eye of the beholder.

[Damasconian]

Originally Posted by JoeFromPA

Not knocking prior generations, but I think this is the first gen where the sedan body style is simply a better looking (to most, not all) body than the coupe. Between the fender flares but also the rear 3/4 view where the coupe is simply too long of a body, there's a real case to be made that the coupe is no longer the "looker" of the two.

Combine that with:

- Both are now available with unpainted CF roofs
- The weight difference is very modest between the two
- There's no documented meaningful/notable perf diff between the two
- The sedan is a few grand less expensive for the same content
- Sedan functionality

And I agree with mkoesel that this generation is going to see much better m3 sales.

Now I think the biggest hold on m3 sales is going to be this: Dealers and BMWs are going to build for a historical spread, so inventory availability is going to be quite low on m3s. Which will push people who could choose either car to choose an m4.

We shall see...

Looks are 100% subjective so lets stick to the numbers, which you are very good at. Is 50 lbs not worth a few thousand dollars? Based on your post a few days ago about the CF roof and the weight savings it has, I'm surprised you'd be so quick to discount the weight difference when that same 50lLbs meant everything in regards to the roof.

Where we agree is the F80 Sedan looks 10X better than the previous generation.

[SickFinga]

Originally Posted by myzmak

Pure memory

And I was wrong

BMW projected a 7:1 ratio.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/bmw...-daily-driver/

....which I seriously doubt they are going to end up with.....

Edit: also quoted here https://www.carthrottle.com/post/why...e-ever-driven/

Ohh this, includes convertibles too. Well, then I wouldn't be surprised. Considering M3 will be competing with two body styles and it will end production a year and a half earlier.

Just for a comparison, E90 M3 represented 15% of all the E9x M3s sold and E36 M3 sedan represented 18%

[myzmak]

Originally Posted by SickFinga

Ohh this, includes convertibles too. Well, then I wouldn't be surprised. Considering M3 will be competing with two body styles and it will end production a year and a half earlier.

Just for a comparison, E90 M3 represented 15% of all the E9x M3s sold and E36 M3 sedan represented 18%

Yeah, the second link says 61% F82, 28% F83 and only 11% F80.

So M3 vs M4 was projected as about a 2:11 (or 1:5.5) ratio.

But, as posted above (by me and many others) I think that 11% will ultimately prove low and it will surpass the E9X and, possibly, the E36.

[SickFinga]

Originally Posted by myzmak

Yeah, the second link says 61% F82, 28% F83 and only 11% F80.

So M3 vs M4 was projected as about a 2:11 (or 1:5.5) ratio.

But, as posted above (by me and many others) I think that 11% will ultimately prove low and it will surpass the E9X and, possibly, the E36.

11% is low. I think it will be around 18%

[myzmak]

Just got a note that this thread was still getting lots of views.

Anyone have/come across any updated stats?

Curious to see how it has played out over the years.

[Ben Overlake]

The market has spoken. The coupe is much more popular. BMW is all about profits just like any other multi-national corporation. The sales mix would reflect demand.

My opinion - I personally think the M4 is one of the best coupe designs of all-time especially from the rear. It's head and shoulders the best looking M car ever and I used to own an E46 M3. Nissl nailed it.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by (((myzmak)))

Just got a note that this thread was still getting lots of views.

Anyone have/come across any updated stats?

Curious to see how it has played out over the years.

BMW recently revealed that they had sold 68,000 M3/M4 so far this generation (as of sometime earlier this year). No individual coupe, convertible, and sedan figures were given.

Still, based on that number, we can use 22k units/yr as a production total. That means that by the time the M3 goes out of production by the end of next October, the figure will be over 90k. And that, furthermore, means it will outsell the E46 given the ~85k figure you mention in your OP. So it will be the strongest selling M3/M4 of all time. While one could rightly point out that there was no E46 M3 sedan, even after the F80 sedan goes away next year, there will still be over a year and half left for the F82 coupe and a bit more than that even for the F83 convertible. It seems all but certain that 100k will easily be broken once all is said and done in 2020. Its going to be interesting to find out how many of them were M3s.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by Ben Overlake

The market has spoken. The coupe is much more popular. BMW is all about profits just like any other multi-national corporation. The sales mix would reflect demand.

My opinion - I personally think the M4 is one of the best coupe designs of all-time especially from the rear. It's head and shoulders the best looking M car ever and I used to own an E46 M3. Nissl nailed it.

It isn?t that M4 are that much more poplar, there are more M4s than M3s. BMW creates more F82 in comparison to F80.

This was the case in 2015, still the case now. I really don?t know why BMW makes more Coupes than Sedans but judging by my uncle and how he prefers my M4 than my up coming M3, I can see why for the mass market.

But if you know your cars, it is just personal preference. I?m personally a bit over the 2 door thing.

It’s way harder to find allocation for the F80s than the F82. It is much easier to find Coupes then Sedans.

[dinonz]

Originally Posted by Arcades

It isn?t that M4 are that much more poplar, there are more M4s than M3s. BMW creates more F82 in comparison to F80.

This was the case in 2015, still the case now. I really don?t know why BMW makes more Coupes than Sedans but judging by my uncle and how he prefers my M4 than my up coming M3, I can see why for the mass market.

But if you know your cars, it is just personal preference. I?m personally a bit over the 2 door thing.

It’s way harder to find allocation for the F80s than the F82. It is much easier to find Coupes then Sedans.

I love the "The coupe is much more popular" comments. Another way of saying the same thing is "The coupe is much more common"

[firedown31]

Originally Posted by Arcades

It isn?t that M4 are that much more poplar, there are more M4s than M3s. BMW creates more F82 in comparison to F80.

This was the case in 2015, still the case now. I really don?t know why BMW makes more Coupes than Sedans but judging by my uncle and how he prefers my M4 than my up coming M3, I can see why for the mass market.

But if you know your cars, it is just personal preference. I?m personally a bit over the 2 door thing.

It’s way harder to find allocation for the F80s than the F82. It is much easier to find Coupes then Sedans.

Right? Especially considering there has been a $2000 lease credit on M4s for a few months now and M3s have had nothing. You kind of backed yourself into that corner BMW by making so many more M4s.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by firedown31

Right? Especially considering there has been a $2000 lease credit on M4s for a few months now and M3s have had nothing. You kind of backed yourself into that corner BMW by making so many more M4s.

Although we cannot say for certain, evidence such as disparity in incentives sure seems to indicate that the M3 is more supply constrained than the M4.

It appears that BMW underestimated the popularity of the M3, particularly in the US. I suspect that they simply do not have the capacity to increase M3 production in Regensburg. And there is furthermore probably no cost effective solution to either expand production in Regensburg or move some M3 production to Munich in the middle of the run. Perhaps with the next generation, they will plan for greater M3 output from the start.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by dinonz

I love the "The coupe is much more popular" comments. Another way of saying the same thing is "The coupe is much more common"

Originally Posted by firedown31

Right? Especially considering there has been a $2000 lease credit on M4s for a few months now and M3s have had nothing. You kind of backed yourself into that corner BMW by making so many more M4s.

It depends on the person too. My uncle likes cars but he is far older and prefers the M4 coupe look. For most of us younger ppl we much prefer the M3. I still believe the M4 is more photogenic due to the body styling but M3 looks perfectly okay in person.

Maybe BMW didn't anticipate how much the M3 name and badge would continue despite the fact that M4 is supposed to be the spiritual successor to the E90/92. A non car person would know a M3, not necessarily a M4. Next gen G82 probably yes but ppl would always know a M3.

That and M3 holds better value. Not to stir a hornets nest but C63/s and Giulia QF both are sedan first. (I still VERY dislike Giulia drive by wire btw)