Quote:
Originally Posted by (((myzmak)))
A great example: Trump is likely to try to fuck up the Iran deal because he thinks he can tweak something better out. Can he? Who knows. Is it a shitty deal? Who knows - it was probably about as good as is it was going to get, but maybe something better could have happened (despite 30 years of evidence to the contrary). But the point is: it is now a done deal. If Trump fucks it up, his tiny developer mind thinks 'great, look what I did - we got increased pressure on Iran'. Super - short term win.
BUT....oh right. It fucks everything else up. Trump wants to deal with North Korea (itself a monumentally stupid decision) so lets play that out.
Trump: sign a deal with me. Give up your Nukes and I will give you X (X being something NK wants long term)
So what does North Korea think? They say "hmmm....what happened to the other people that dealt with America? Well, the Iranians signed a deal....which the Americans tore up within a few years. So....why would we trust the Americans to hold to this?'*
See, Trump doesn't understand that this isn't just about him - he actually represents something much larger than his bloated orange self - an entire country's word and honour and credibility. Since none of those concepts mean anything to his syphilitic puny developer brain, he doesn't get how much he fucks up everything by going for his stupid short term win.
* aside: this is my major foreign policy beef with Obama. Ukraine gave up its Nukes in the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity (ie: Russia wouldnt take over parts of it). Yeah, that played out well. America fucked that up big time and don't think for a second that doesn't factor into current NK thinking.
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Agreed, about Trump being the supposed great dealmaker.......
But, it's the how all US Presidents deal with arrangements made by other administrations etc or got so and so to fight with us against whoever that bothers me. You are 100% right and this isn't just Trump's fault, it is a schizophrenic foreign policy that is unfortunately a by product of getting in different groups in power every 4-8 years.
Bush 2 had a really hard time getting anybody to trust us against Saddam because his own Dad fucked a bunch of them over when he told them to rise up against him. Then sat back while Saddam crushed the uprising. Then Obama abruptly pulled out based on a campaign promise and not what would've been the right thing to do for the US/Iraq and the region in general. Although I do blame Bush 2 more for this because he gave up on getting a status of forces agreement with Iraq. He left it up to OBama and knew full well Obama wasn't going to pursue one and pull out.
We are about to do it again to our "allies" in the region, especially the Kurds (I know there are different groups) for the piece of shit leader in Turkey and Putin. But, the Kurds are going to really take it in the shorts again if we abruptly pull out of Syria like Trump wants to. This really pisses me off because they have by far been our best allies in the region against a whole host of enemies to the US (real and perceived).
Anyway, I wouldn't trust the US on any about any front anymore based on the past and what is going on/about to go on with a variety of foreign policy topics. And I 100% see why Iran, NK and others won't to get nukes because it guarantees the US won't fuck with them.
Great post
(((myzmak))).