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      04-05-2018, 10:37 AM   #595
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Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
I do like watching the majors on tv, but I hate playing golf because I truly suck at it. It is one of the only sports/games I couldn't get fairly decent at. It frustrates me way too much and I say "fuck" enough doing other things.

Lups, stop your bitching especially since I'm training for the triathlon at 44. Imagine how I feel.
That's running, swimming and biking! That's easy! Dancing is muscle control, stupid twists, then just when you've gotten out of your own way your stupid partner spins you and you assume you still have the balance of a figure skater. Of course you cover it up by keeping the spin going on your knees and jump up instead of playing dead.

Oh god, why didn't I play dead? I could've done that!

And Minnie you're cool! I'm not! Being cool is like half the victory! I bet your kiddo wouldn't sit next to you eating lasagna and offer you a plate just out of reach!

See! You even have a support network! All I have are these awful people some humanoid sent to my life!

this is a new level of pathetic, and that's saying a lot in my case. I should've stayed at home.
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How would you know this? Did mommy catch you jerking off to some Big Foot porn ?
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      04-05-2018, 10:47 AM   #596
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Originally Posted by Real Dodger 2.0 View Post
Lups danced? Then whined? I must have missed that.....

I like Tiger, but am rooting for Spieth. He seems so classy, and creative.
yeah, there is a pretty solid new generation of golfers with spieth and DJ etc at the fore (and I have no problems with any of them winning) but....I always wanted tiger to beat jack's record and still do. The way a guy from a very not-typical-golf-background came and just demolished the sport AND simultaneously made it much larger and more popular....that's a narrative i like. Plus, Big Cat was about my age (just a year older) which made him more relevant to me to watch than some of the older guys.
I'm still rooting for Happy Gilmore...

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      04-05-2018, 11:38 AM   #597
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I'm still rooting for Happy Gilmore...
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      04-05-2018, 12:00 PM   #598
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Holyshit, people still play golf?

didn't golf, like, die years ago due it being the ultimate douchy way to ruin natural resources, land, time and money? You know, like hunting polar bears from helicopters used to be ...

Maybe it's just here in the valley ... golf died forever ago, now the big thing is bike riding. You gotta have a $15,000 carbon fiber situation and prance around in a little skin tight suit ...

Which brings up another question, why are fad-hobbies so douchey??

just get a fucking performance car and drive it people. Geezus.
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Originally Posted by Real Dodger 2.0 View Post
I'm also training for a triathalon! This weekend! Beer (Octoberfest or Guiness?), wine (Hess chard) and Whisky (Irish preferred).

As I, apparently like LUPS, have become an organic pain collector, I have given up running. Sticking to the bike (15 year old Specialized hard rock, in severe need of a tune-up).
Yeah, the $20k road-biking thing is very big with all the 40-50 year olds here as well. Try to go for a drive in the country and have to constantly avoid (or run over) them as they all pretend they are in the tour. That it is pathetic and douchey as hell is one thing we certainly agree on GG

Like RD, my bike is a 20 year old Gary Fisher that hasn't seen a tune up in....20 years.

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Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
I do like watching the majors on tv, but I hate playing golf because I truly suck at it. It is one of the only sports/games I couldn't get fairly decent at. It frustrates me way too much and I say "fuck" enough doing other things.

Lups, stop your bitching especially since I'm training for the triathlon at 44. Imagine how I feel.
That is actually one of the reasons I like golf.

So as a kid, my dad and grandpa played so I played a bit - was never very good, didn't practice, etc, and inevitably found it really really frustrating. So much so that I stopped playing much at all around age 15. Even worked at a golf course one summer (in the resto) and could have golfed a shit ton for free, didn't.

Moved out here for work and would inevitably play a couple of rounds each summer in some corporate/client tourney/etc. The odd good shot was punctuated with a lot of shitty ones - usual duffer issues (slice, push, duff, etc)

Then, maybe....6 years ago I said 'fuck this - I am either going to spend time at this and make myself decent or stop'. Opted for the former and haven't looked back. Last year I got out and played 75 times (bearing in mind I live in a climate where I can't even get to an outdoor range until at LEAST mid-April (and this year, who knows? given that it is April 5 and there is still 2' of fucking snow on the ground with a neverending winter) - so that is a lot of fucking golf). 100% addicted to golfing. The only other sport I love this much is skiing and if I had to choose between skiing every day or golfing every day.....I don't know which one I would choose. Less chance of breaking limbs golfing I guess....but anyway, completely hooked. (and even the scoring is better - 6 years ago there was no way I was breaking 100; now i have a reasonable handicap (12-13 ish) and play relatively consistently)

As for why, it kind of gets to what Minnie said - it is SO fucking hard. It isn't just about the hand-eye-athleticism (though that is part of it) but it is SUCH a mental game. Just had a great shot? who cares - you have to do it again. Had a shitty shot? Wipe your tears up princess and play the next one. Need this putt for a decent score? Lets see how much bottle you have big boy.

Plus, from a family point of view, it has been pretty good. My wife caught the bug a few years ago so we can go out together (ie; not all about bros hanging out and getting shitfaced and stupid). Our kids golf too so we can and do play together often - especially when we head out to our place in the mountains. And it teaches them a ton. My daughter is very athletic and super competitive, but gets very easily frustrated when things don't go exactly as she wants, which in golf can be every second shot (especially when she doesnt practice) - so getting over that and getting her head back together is a pretty key skill, I think.

Anyway, I count myself among the highly active types with a shit ton of activities on my regular to do list (from running, to hiking, to backpacking, to water skiing, to downhill skiing, to general workouts, to the odd BV yoga class, etc) but something about being out on a course - good weather or bad -....yeah. it just does it for me.
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      04-05-2018, 12:07 PM   #599
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      04-05-2018, 02:26 PM   #600
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (((myzmak))) View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Holyshit, people still play golf?

didn't golf, like, die years ago due it being the ultimate douchy way to ruin natural resources, land, time and money? You know, like hunting polar bears from helicopters used to be ...

Maybe it's just here in the valley ... golf died forever ago, now the big thing is bike riding. You gotta have a $15,000 carbon fiber situation and prance around in a little skin tight suit ...

Which brings up another question, why are fad-hobbies so douchey??

just get a fucking performance car and drive it people. Geezus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Dodger 2.0 View Post
I'm also training for a triathalon! This weekend! Beer (Octoberfest or Guiness?), wine (Hess chard) and Whisky (Irish preferred).

As I, apparently like LUPS, have become an organic pain collector, I have given up running. Sticking to the bike (15 year old Specialized hard rock, in severe need of a tune-up).
Yeah, the $20k road-biking thing is very big with all the 40-50 year olds here as well. Try to go for a drive in the country and have to constantly avoid (or run over) them as they all pretend they are in the tour. That it is pathetic and douchey as hell is one thing we certainly agree on GG

Like RD, my bike is a 20 year old Gary Fisher that hasn't seen a tune up in....20 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
I do like watching the majors on tv, but I hate playing golf because I truly suck at it. It is one of the only sports/games I couldn't get fairly decent at. It frustrates me way too much and I say "fuck" enough doing other things.

Lups, stop your bitching especially since I'm training for the triathlon at 44. Imagine how I feel.
That is actually one of the reasons I like golf.

So as a kid, my dad and grandpa played so I played a bit - was never very good, didn't practice, etc, and inevitably found it really really frustrating. So much so that I stopped playing much at all around age 15. Even worked at a golf course one summer (in the resto) and could have golfed a shit ton for free, didn't.

Moved out here for work and would inevitably play a couple of rounds each summer in some corporate/client tourney/etc. The odd good shot was punctuated with a lot of shitty ones - usual duffer issues (slice, push, duff, etc)

Then, maybe....6 years ago I said 'fuck this - I am either going to spend time at this and make myself decent or stop'. Opted for the former and haven't looked back. Last year I got out and played 75 times (bearing in mind I live in a climate where I can't even get to an outdoor range until at LEAST mid-April (and this year, who knows? given that it is April 5 and there is still 2' of fucking snow on the ground with a neverending winter) - so that is a lot of fucking golf). 100% addicted to golfing. The only other sport I love this much is skiing and if I had to choose between skiing every day or golfing every day.....I don't know which one I would choose. Less chance of breaking limbs golfing I guess....but anyway, completely hooked. (and even the scoring is better - 6 years ago there was no way I was breaking 100; now i have a reasonable handicap (12-13 ish) and play relatively consistently)

As for why, it kind of gets to what Minnie said - it is SO fucking hard. It isn't just about the hand-eye-athleticism (though that is part of it) but it is SUCH a mental game. Just had a great shot? who cares - you have to do it again. Had a shitty shot? Wipe your tears up princess and play the next one. Need this putt for a decent score? Lets see how much bottle you have big boy.

Plus, from a family point of view, it has been pretty good. My wife caught the bug a few years ago so we can go out together (ie; not all about bros hanging out and getting shitfaced and stupid). Our kids golf too so we can and do play together often - especially when we head out to our place in the mountains. And it teaches them a ton. My daughter is very athletic and super competitive, but gets very easily frustrated when things don't go exactly as she wants, which in golf can be every second shot (especially when she doesnt practice) - so getting over that and getting her head back together is a pretty key skill, I think.

Anyway, I count myself among the highly active types with a shit ton of activities on my regular to do list (from running, to hiking, to backpacking, to water skiing, to downhill skiing, to general workouts, to the odd BV yoga class, etc) but something about being out on a course - good weather or bad -....yeah. it just does it for me.
I have a special place in my heart for those fucking bicyclists...the fuckers who think they own the road and bike path and hit your dog and sue you for $1.67m...they can kiss my ass...

Did I just say that out loud?
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      04-05-2018, 03:27 PM   #601
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Originally Posted by (((myzmak))) View Post
As for why, it kind of gets to what Minnie said - it is SO fucking hard. It isn't just about the hand-eye-athleticism (though that is part of it) but it is SUCH a mental game.
Hey, so uhhh, you know we've all seen people golf right? Cause ...

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      04-05-2018, 03:58 PM   #602
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I'm pretty sure Trump is on to something, here's what he said yesterday:
"Yesterday, it came out where this journey coming up, women are raped at levels that nobody has ever seen before ... They don't want to mention that, so we have to change our laws."
Turns out nobody is mentioning that because it's a lie.

Of course these are the caravans of illegals! I don't know about you, but I'm pretty frightened and an expensive medieval structure similar to the highly effective French Maginot Line is sounding pretty great right now ...

Anyway, before I make any decisions I decided to check a few facts as I've heard that decisions are usually best when made on them.

Border crossings are a tidal wave!
Well, it turns out border crossings are at a 46 year low.

But what about The Caravan?
Well, turns out it's "The Caravan" is a group of Central American families heading to the state of Puebla in Mexico about two hours south of Mexico City where they plan to legally immigrate.

But that's only because Trump is ballin' it out right???
Well, it turns out apprehensions and crossings have been steadily dropping for 2 decades.



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      04-05-2018, 07:43 PM   #603
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Omg now the fucking idiot added 100 billion more to tariffs.

The markets cant absorb this. This is so out of hand and the fucking idiot really does not understand who pays for these tariffs.
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You're still a little new here, so I'll let you in on a little secret. Whenever Lups types gibberish, this is an opportunity for you to imagine it to be whatever you'd like it to be.
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How would you know this? Did mommy catch you jerking off to some Big Foot porn ?
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      04-05-2018, 08:15 PM   #604
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Omg now the fucking idiot added 100 billion more to tariffs.

The markets cant absorb this. This is so out of hand and the fucking idiot really does not understand who pays for these tariffs.
It's the art of the deal...
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      04-05-2018, 08:18 PM   #605
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It's the art of the deal...
Have you read it? It's bs from cover to cover and it has zero to do with international trade. I read it and honestly between Donald and I it means one of took the time to go through that.

This is going to cost us all.
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You're still a little new here, so I'll let you in on a little secret. Whenever Lups types gibberish, this is an opportunity for you to imagine it to be whatever you'd like it to be.
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How would you know this? Did mommy catch you jerking off to some Big Foot porn ?
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      04-06-2018, 07:01 AM   #606
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Just to let you know, I'm still alive. There is a slight chance I'll attempt to train kissa to chew off my right shoulder but all in all I think only death will be a sufficient pain relief and I'm making my tiny dog to lay on my back to warm it up so I might be able to get up at one point unassisted.
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You're still a little new here, so I'll let you in on a little secret. Whenever Lups types gibberish, this is an opportunity for you to imagine it to be whatever you'd like it to be.
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How would you know this? Did mommy catch you jerking off to some Big Foot porn ?
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      04-06-2018, 09:22 AM   #607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kidscollege$ View Post
It's the art of the deal...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lups View Post
Have you read it? It's bs from cover to cover and it has zero to do with international trade. I read it and honestly between Donald and I it means one of took the time to go through that.

This is going to cost us all.
The problem with people who think that Trump is a 'deal master' is that people don't know what that really means or understand what Trump used to do and why it means he has no fucking idea how to get a good long term win.

Trump was a real estate developer.

In the universe of 'deal makers', developers rank among the lowest of the low. They are not very smart (being essentially graduated realtors) and they don't understand much about deals, contracts, etc. They focus almost exclusively on short term goals and wins - it is all about betting the farm all the time on everything. They have a tremendous appetite for risk and it sometimes pays off, and then the rest of the time they go bankrupt (which most developers have more than once).

They make money because the people they negotiate against are other developers just like them who also suffer from the same cognitive difficulties. To the typical developer, the signed and final and binding contract is just the start of the negotiation. They never have any intent on seeing the agreed upon deal through, they always believe they can renegotiate. Again, they think short term and never long term.

While that might work when dealing with something like real estate and other idiot deal makers, it does not work in international trade or international diplomacy, which depend upon stable and predictable rules and agreements. You need to think more than one move ahead, beyond the immediate and into the long term. Trump, like most developers, has zero capacity to do that.

A great example: Trump is likely to try to fuck up the Iran deal because he thinks he can tweak something better out. Can he? Who knows. Is it a shitty deal? Who knows - it was probably about as good as is it was going to get, but maybe something better could have happened (despite 30 years of evidence to the contrary). But the point is: it is now a done deal. If Trump fucks it up, his tiny developer mind thinks 'great, look what I did - we got increased pressure on Iran'. Super - short term win.

BUT....oh right. It fucks everything else up. Trump wants to deal with North Korea (itself a monumentally stupid decision) so lets play that out.

Trump: sign a deal with me. Give up your Nukes and I will give you X (X being something NK wants long term)

So what does North Korea think? They say "hmmm....what happened to the other people that dealt with America? Well, the Iranians signed a deal....which the Americans tore up within a few years. So....why would we trust the Americans to hold to this?'*

See, Trump doesn't understand that this isn't just about him - he actually represents something much larger than his bloated orange self - an entire country's word and honour and credibility. Since none of those concepts mean anything to his syphilitic puny developer brain, he doesn't get how much he fucks up everything by going for his stupid short term win.

Likewise the trade war. In sparking this tit for tat, maybe trump gets a short term gain (unlikely as tariffs hurt yourself as much as the opponent, but let's play along). Super. Great.

Now what about trade in 6 months? Well, trade has for the last 50 years depended upon a clear set of rules (now enshrined in the WTO). This whole exchange has largely ignored those rules. It is, quite literally, vigilante trade justice. How long would your system of law and order work if everyone took justice into their own hands every time they thought they were wronged? (answer: it wouldn't. It would collapse.)

As the largest trader in the world, America stands to lose more than anyone from a collapse of trading rules and regimes. Why should anyone respect ANY American IP, say, when the IP rules are set out by the WTO and the Americans just ignore those rules (And encourage others, like the Chinese, to just 'step outside' and do likewise?)

But Trump doesn't understand that rules and agreements really matter - because that isn't the way real estate developers work. They just bounce from one short term 'deal' win to another.

Further, the tolerance for risk is fine for real estate but bad for a country. You can go bankrupt on your casino development; losing the 'farm' in international negotiations is catastrophic for your country.


.....and I say this from the perspective of someone who has litigated more than a few real estate deals. There is the odd good/long term developer, but they are the rare breed.

Anyway, this is why for 3 years I have laughed as many have said 'oh, Trump is a deal maker - he will be so good at negotiating with everyone else'. He isn't and he won't.



* aside: this is my major foreign policy beef with Obama. Ukraine gave up its Nukes in the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity (ie: Russia wouldnt take over parts of it). Yeah, that played out well. America fucked that up big time and don't think for a second that doesn't factor into current NK thinking.
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      04-06-2018, 09:43 AM   #608
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (((myzmak))) View Post
The problem with people who think that Trump is a 'deal master' is that people don't know what that really means or understand what Trump used to do and why it means he has no fucking idea how to get a good long term win.

Trump was a real estate developer.

In the universe of 'deal makers', developers rank among the lowest of the low. They are not very smart (being essentially graduated realtors) and they don't understand much about deals, contracts, etc. They focus almost exclusively on short term goals and wins - it is all about betting the farm all the time on everything. They have a tremendous appetite for risk and it sometimes pays off, and then the rest of the time they go bankrupt (which most developers have more than once).

They make money because the people they negotiate against are other developers just like them who also suffer from the same cognitive difficulties. To the typical developer, the signed and final and binding contract is just the start of the negotiation. They never have any intent on seeing the agreed upon deal through, they always believe they can renegotiate. Again, they think short term and never long term.

While that might work when dealing with something like real estate and other idiot deal makers, it does not work in international trade or international diplomacy, which depend upon stable and predictable rules and agreements. You need to think more than one move ahead, beyond the immediate and into the long term. Trump, like most developers, has zero capacity to do that.

A great example: Trump is likely to try to fuck up the Iran deal because he thinks he can tweak something better out. Can he? Who knows. Is it a shitty deal? Who knows - it was probably about as good as is it was going to get, but maybe something better could have happened (despite 30 years of evidence to the contrary). But the point is: it is now a done deal. If Trump fucks it up, his tiny developer mind thinks 'great, look what I did - we got increased pressure on Iran'. Super - short term win.

BUT....oh right. It fucks everything else up. Trump wants to deal with North Korea (itself a monumentally stupid decision) so lets play that out.

Trump: sign a deal with me. Give up your Nukes and I will give you X (X being something NK wants long term)

So what does North Korea think? They say "hmmm....what happened to the other people that dealt with America? Well, the Iranians signed a deal....which the Americans tore up within a few years. So....why would we trust the Americans to hold to this?'*

See, Trump doesn't understand that this isn't just about him - he actually represents something much larger than his bloated orange self - an entire country's word and honour and credibility. Since none of those concepts mean anything to his syphilitic puny developer brain, he doesn't get how much he fucks up everything by going for his stupid short term win.

Likewise the trade war. In sparking this tit for tat, maybe trump gets a short term gain (unlikely as tariffs hurt yourself as much as the opponent, but let's play along). Super. Great.

Now what about trade in 6 months? Well, trade has for the last 50 years depended upon a clear set of rules (now enshrined in the WTO). This whole exchange has largely ignored those rules. It is, quite literally, vigilante trade justice. How long would your system of law and order work if everyone took justice into their own hands every time they thought they were wronged? (answer: it wouldn't. It would collapse.)

As the largest trader in the world, America stands to lose more than anyone from a collapse of trading rules and regimes. Why should anyone respect ANY American IP, say, when the IP rules are set out by the WTO and the Americans just ignore those rules (And encourage others, like the Chinese, to just 'step outside' and do likewise?)

But Trump doesn't understand that rules and agreements really matter - because that isn't the way real estate developers work. They just bounce from one short term 'deal' win to another.

Further, the tolerance for risk is fine for real estate but bad for a country. You can go bankrupt on your casino development; losing the 'farm' in international negotiations is catastrophic for your country.


.....and I say this from the perspective of someone who has litigated more than a few real estate deals. There is the odd good/long term developer, but they are the rare breed.

Anyway, this is why for 3 years I have laughed as many have said 'oh, Trump is a deal maker - he will be so good at negotiating with everyone else'. He isn't and he won't.



* aside: this is my major foreign policy beef with Obama. Ukraine gave up its Nukes in the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity (ie: Russia wouldnt take over parts of it). Yeah, that played out well. America fucked that up big time and don't think for a second that doesn't factor into current NK thinking.
I am not saying this guy is the sharpest tool in the drawer...but. He earned an economics degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. And I know that does not necessarily mean much, but to get into that school is a bit tough. I am sure he learned something just by osmosis of him sleeping with his head on his books.
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      04-06-2018, 09:44 AM   #609
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Originally Posted by (((myzmak))) View Post
A great example: Trump is likely to try to fuck up the Iran deal because he thinks he can tweak something better out. Can he? Who knows. Is it a shitty deal? Who knows - it was probably about as good as is it was going to get, but maybe something better could have happened (despite 30 years of evidence to the contrary). But the point is: it is now a done deal. If Trump fucks it up, his tiny developer mind thinks 'great, look what I did - we got increased pressure on Iran'. Super - short term win.

BUT....oh right. It fucks everything else up. Trump wants to deal with North Korea (itself a monumentally stupid decision) so lets play that out.

Trump: sign a deal with me. Give up your Nukes and I will give you X (X being something NK wants long term)

So what does North Korea think? They say "hmmm....what happened to the other people that dealt with America? Well, the Iranians signed a deal....which the Americans tore up within a few years. So....why would we trust the Americans to hold to this?'*

See, Trump doesn't understand that this isn't just about him - he actually represents something much larger than his bloated orange self - an entire country's word and honour and credibility. Since none of those concepts mean anything to his syphilitic puny developer brain, he doesn't get how much he fucks up everything by going for his stupid short term win.

* aside: this is my major foreign policy beef with Obama. Ukraine gave up its Nukes in the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity (ie: Russia wouldnt take over parts of it). Yeah, that played out well. America fucked that up big time and don't think for a second that doesn't factor into current NK thinking.
Agreed, about Trump being the supposed great dealmaker.......

But, it's the how all US Presidents deal with arrangements made by other administrations etc or got so and so to fight with us against whoever that bothers me. You are 100% right and this isn't just Trump's fault, it is a schizophrenic foreign policy that is unfortunately a by product of getting in different groups in power every 4-8 years.

Bush 2 had a really hard time getting anybody to trust us against Saddam because his own Dad fucked a bunch of them over when he told them to rise up against him. Then sat back while Saddam crushed the uprising. Then Obama abruptly pulled out based on a campaign promise and not what would've been the right thing to do for the US/Iraq and the region in general. Although I do blame Bush 2 more for this because he gave up on getting a status of forces agreement with Iraq. He left it up to OBama and knew full well Obama wasn't going to pursue one and pull out.

We are about to do it again to our "allies" in the region, especially the Kurds (I know there are different groups) for the piece of shit leader in Turkey and Putin. But, the Kurds are going to really take it in the shorts again if we abruptly pull out of Syria like Trump wants to. This really pisses me off because they have by far been our best allies in the region against a whole host of enemies to the US (real and perceived).

Anyway, I wouldn't trust the US on any about any front anymore based on the past and what is going on/about to go on with a variety of foreign policy topics. And I 100% see why Iran, NK and others won't to get nukes because it guarantees the US won't fuck with them.

Great post (((myzmak))).
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      04-06-2018, 09:45 AM   #610
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I am not saying this guy is the sharpest tool in the drawer...but. He earned an economics degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. And I know that does not necessarily mean much, but to get into that school is a bit tough. I am sure he learned something just by osmosis of him sleeping with his head on his books.
Not so tough when you have family connections etc, just like GW Bush and Yale. Happens all the time when your family donates a shit ton of money to the school. The school wouldn't want those donations to stop now would they?
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      04-06-2018, 09:59 AM   #611
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The problem with people who think that Trump is a 'deal master' is that people don't know what that really means or understand what Trump used to do and why it means he has no fucking idea how to get a good long term win.

Trump was a real estate developer.

In the universe of 'deal makers', developers rank among the lowest of the low. They are not very smart (being essentially graduated realtors) and they don't understand much about deals, contracts, etc. They focus almost exclusively on short term goals and wins - it is all about betting the farm all the time on everything. They have a tremendous appetite for risk and it sometimes pays off, and then the rest of the time they go bankrupt (which most developers have more than once).

They make money because the people they negotiate against are other developers just like them who also suffer from the same cognitive difficulties. To the typical developer, the signed and final and binding contract is just the start of the negotiation. They never have any intent on seeing the agreed upon deal through, they always believe they can renegotiate. Again, they think short term and never long term.


A great example: Trump is likely to try to fuck up the Iran deal because he thinks he can tweak something better out. Can he? Who knows. Is it a shitty deal? Who knows - it was probably about as good as is it was going to get, but maybe something better could have happened (despite 30 years of evidence to the contrary). But the point is: it is now a done deal. If Trump fucks it up, his tiny developer mind thinks 'great, look what I did - we got increased pressure on Iran'. Super - short term win.

ething NK wants long term)

Now what about trade in 6 months? Well, trade has for the last 50 years depended upon a clear set of rules (now enshrined in the WTO). This whole exchange has largely ignored those rules. It is, quite literally, vigilante trade justice. How long would your system of law and order work if everyone took justice into their own hands every time they thought they were wronged? (answer: it wouldn't. It would collapse.)

t 'step outside' and do likewise?)

But Trump doesn't understand that rules and agreements really matter - because that isn't the way real estate developers work. They just bounce from one short term 'deal' win to another.

Further, the tolerance for risk is fine for real estate but bad for a country. You can go bankrupt on your casino development; losing the 'farm' in international negotiations is catastrophic for your country.






* aside: this is my major foreign policy beef with Obama. Ukraine gave up its Nukes in the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity (ie: Russia wouldnt take over parts of it). Yeah, that played out well. America fucked that up big time and don't think for a second that doesn't factor into current NK thinking.


I read an article that seemed reliable a while back. In it, it states Trump told his team to go for short term goals. "Win today". Like he needs ratings. I think he has yet to emerge from that thinking. I agree completely that he has no long term (aka strategic) goals. He wings it daily. That will also be his downfall. As he acts more independently from his advisors (like Kelly), the more likely he will screw up in a way that goes to a whole new level.
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      04-06-2018, 10:02 AM   #612
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* aside: this is my major foreign policy beef with Obama. Ukraine gave up its Nukes in the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity (ie: Russia wouldnt take over parts of it). Yeah, that played out well. America fucked that up big time and don't think for a second that doesn't factor into current NK thinking.
I've been saying for a long time that Obama was the worst president of my lifetime (until recently). This is one instance of why I believe that. No backbone.
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      04-06-2018, 10:45 AM   #613
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I've been saying for a long time that Obama was the worst president of my lifetime (until recently). This is one instance of why I believe that. No backbone.
I wasn't a fan of his when it came to foreign policy and agree for the most part about the no backbone there.

But, I will give him a lot of credit for a lot of domestic things, not the least of getting the economy back on track (even if it was a slow recovery) etc.
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      04-06-2018, 10:52 AM   #614
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I've been saying for a long time that Obama was the worst president of my lifetime (until recently). This is one instance of why I believe that. No backbone.
I wouldn't put it on Obama. 15 or so years of war makes people cranky. Russia took advantage of every NATO country getting fed up with a constant war.

Yeah, that and the weird tent dude sure were fuckups but you're like really, really old! Really, really old! Your memory is forgetting bin laden and Clinton, binnie and palls and Bush one, binnie and palls and carter and then bush two came along and royally screwed us all over. Think of your foreign policy in the me as a shit slinging spinner that has just sped up over every administration and when ever someone gets something good done, the next guy knows better (Iran deal) and then the spinner goes faster again.

You guys either talk amongst yourselves a ten year plan both parties commit to, or we all can do this limbo shit until our kids are old enough to recruit. Fun!
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      04-06-2018, 11:01 AM   #615
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Originally Posted by Kidscollege$ View Post
I am not saying this guy is the sharpest tool in the drawer...but. He earned an economics degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. And I know that does not necessarily mean much, but to get into that school is a bit tough. I am sure he learned something just by osmosis of him sleeping with his head on his books.
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Not so tough when you have family connections etc, just like GW Bush and Yale. Happens all the time when your family donates a shit ton of money to the school. The school wouldn't want those donations to stop now would they?
Trump has been pretty quiet on how he got into Wharton (ducks the question when asked), but certainly the rumour mill is that it had zero to do with credentials and all to do with family.

Also, he didn't start at Wharton - he transferred in after 2 years elsewhere.

But, all that aside: I know lots of people who have graduated from top law schools who are idiots at real life. A degree means you are able to get through school. It says nothing beyond that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
Agreed, about Trump being the supposed great dealmaker.......

But, it's the how all US Presidents deal with arrangements made by other administrations etc or got so and so to fight with us against whoever that bothers me. You are 100% right and this isn't just Trump's fault, it is a schizophrenic foreign policy that is unfortunately a by product of getting in different groups in power every 4-8 years.

Bush 2 had a really hard time getting anybody to trust us against Saddam because his own Dad fucked a bunch of them over when he told them to rise up against him. Then sat back while Saddam crushed the uprising. Then Obama abruptly pulled out based on a campaign promise and not what would've been the right thing to do for the US/Iraq and the region in general. Although I do blame Bush 2 more for this because he gave up on getting a status of forces agreement with Iraq. He left it up to OBama and knew full well Obama wasn't going to pursue one and pull out.

We are about to do it again to our "allies" in the region, especially the Kurds (I know there are different groups) for the piece of shit leader in Turkey and Putin. But, the Kurds are going to really take it in the shorts again if we abruptly pull out of Syria like Trump wants to. This really pisses me off because they have by far been our best allies in the region against a whole host of enemies to the US (real and perceived).

Anyway, I wouldn't trust the US on any about any front anymore based on the past and what is going on/about to go on with a variety of foreign policy topics. And I 100% see why Iran, NK and others won't to get nukes because it guarantees the US won't fuck with them.

Great post (((myzmak))).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Dodger 2.0 View Post
I read an article that seemed reliable a while back. In it, it states Trump told his team to go for short term goals. "Win today". Like he needs ratings. I think he has yet to emerge from that thinking. I agree completely that he has no long term (aka strategic) goals. He wings it daily. That will also be his downfall. As he acts more independently from his advisors (like Kelly), the more likely he will screw up in a way that goes to a whole new level.
Yup. Its why reality TV is a winning format for him but being president isn't.

And i disagree a bit with Minnie here. Yes, all politicians who come to office want to put their own stamp on the job (why else run if all you want to do is enact your predecessor's plans?) so inevitably they do shift things around. BUT, generally speaking, when treaties and agreements are signed countries have to abide by them.

So while the tone and approach may change from Clinton to Bush to Obama, any treaties signed by one would and were honoured by the others (or that was the expectation). That's why the GOP worked so hard to get Clinton to not ratify the Rome Statute on the ICC late in his presidency - because it would have bound the country.

Trump's "its all about me" approach is a pretty radical departure. Not only is he changing the tone and approach, he is changing the existing deals. THAT is a big fucking problem.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Dodger 2.0 View Post
I've been saying for a long time that Obama was the worst president of my lifetime (until recently). This is one instance of why I believe that. No backbone.
I'm much kinder to Obama's legacy. Where I appreciate him was that, unlike Bush II or Trump, Obama understood the big picture and that, in international relations, nothing is ever easy. We can't just invade X and expect that Y would result. X was likely to lead to Z, AA, BB, CC, DD and EE and each of those would yield a bunch of other results and on and on and on. So I get and appreciate that.

BUT I do think he overthought things and became too tentative to project force. The red line in Syria was a very poor moment for him. His failure to more aggressively defend Ukraine was also not great. Sure, I understand that the USA doesnt want to get into a shooting war over Crimea BUT there was a level of disengagement that was disappointing.

I think in many ways that's because Obama's major focus even late in his presidency was on domestic politics (health care, etc) and he tried to ignore the international arena unless he had to deal with it. And there are lots of domestic issues that need fixing up, sure, but the space America has carved for itself in the world pretty much requires it to be a very active international player - something that was never his thing.
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      04-06-2018, 11:28 AM   #616
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A degree means you are able to get through school. It says nothing beyond that.
Yup, and I know a lot of people with no degree that are smarter than most. And not just these famous people in the article below...

http://content.time.com/time/special...988082,00.html
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