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      01-17-2020, 09:58 AM   #2971
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Originally Posted by iceweasel View Post
1. The 1950’s were not a good time. Objectively - the best time in the history of America was yesterday. (ie: there is no other time in American history whereby people/governments/systems were more tolerable, accepting, equitable and equal than yesterday). And we still have more work to do to move the needle to 50%.

2. Tesla is light years ahead of any car manufacturer. To build a car of the future requires starting from the ground up vs repurposing existing structures. Tesla did that hard work - that expensive hard work - they will reap the rewards.

3. Bold prediction: ICE will eventually go the way of coal. It’s inevitable. It will take a century or so - but humans as a race of people will move beyond it.
Tesla light years ahead of everyone else in the industry? Care to elaborate on that one?

May I remind you that Musk stole Tesla from the original founders and the first 2008 Tesla Model was based on a modified Lotus Elise. Hardly any innovation there.

This is a so called car manufacturer that can't get the basics right from manufacturing, quality control for and finish all the way to after sales service and support.

You sound much alike another Musketeer acolyte. Fine if you like the man and his quirky personality but he is no messiah.
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      01-17-2020, 11:32 AM   #2972
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it's the "red gas can" for ev folk. this guy definitely has some range anxiety:

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      01-17-2020, 11:54 AM   #2973
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iceweasel View Post

2. Tesla is light years ahead of any car manufacturer. To build a car of the future requires starting from the ground up vs repurposing existing structures. Tesla did that hard work - that expensive hard work - they will reap the rewards.
Though I challenge that they are "light years ahead", they are certainly rolling out tech that is not ready for market, so chew on that.
Really though, on many parameters, tesla is light years behind most manufacturers. BMWAG has over 50 years experience in design and testing for structure, materials, crashworthiness, and overall engineering. Can't discount that.
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      01-17-2020, 12:02 PM   #2974
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Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by iceweasel View Post
1. The 1950's were not a good time. Objectively - the best time in the history of America was yesterday. (ie: there is no other time in American history whereby people/governments/systems were more tolerable, accepting, equitable and equal than yesterday). And we still have more work to do to move the needle to 50%.

2. Tesla is light years ahead of any car manufacturer. To build a car of the future requires starting from the ground up vs repurposing existing structures. Tesla did that hard work - that expensive hard work - they will reap the rewards.

3. Bold prediction: ICE will eventually go the way of coal. It's inevitable. It will take a century or so - but humans as a race of people will move beyond it.
Tesla light years ahead of everyone else in the industry? Care to elaborate on that one?

May I remind you that Musk stole Tesla from the original founders and the first 2008 Tesla Model was based on a modified Lotus Elise. Hardly any innovation there.

This is a so called car manufacturer that can't get the basics right from manufacturing, quality control for and finish all the way to after sales service and support.

You sound much alike another Musketeer acolyte. Fine if you like the man and his quirky personality but he is no messiah.
Truth!
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      01-17-2020, 12:19 PM   #2975
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Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
Though I challenge that they are "light years ahead", they are certainly rolling out tech that is not ready for market, so chew on that.
Really though, on many parameters, tesla is light years behind most manufacturers. BMWAG has over 50 years experience in design and testing for structure, materials, crashworthiness, and overall engineering. Can't discount that.
I'd make the case with GM too. GM introduced the EV1 24 years ago. Look back in EV history and you'll find GM did a lot of development work on the EV "skateboard" chassis, where the flat battery pack served as the main structure of the floor/chassis.

The Bolt was soon after rolling down the low-rate initial production line when Musk was on stage taking orders for the Model 3. The Bolt came out of the box selling for $35K, where as the Model 3 started out at +$55K.

I've stated many times before, Tesla must be commended for what it has accomplished, but saying the company is light years ahead of everyone else is a false narrative. Chrysler-Fiat president Marchionne said in an interview just a few years ago, that at any time, any of the major manufacturers could out design and out produce Tesla in EVs if they saw a true market it EV.

And, there is no other major manufacturer that would risk the beta testing of tech on the public that Tesla gets away with.
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      01-17-2020, 12:45 PM   #2976
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Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
If they do it correctly, an all electric HUMMER would be a formidable competitor to the Cybertruck.
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      01-17-2020, 01:00 PM   #2977
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Tesla cars are accelerating without warning, prompting government scrutiny

https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/17/2...nhtsa-petition
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      01-17-2020, 01:06 PM   #2978
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Originally Posted by flybigjet View Post
Tesla cars are accelerating without warning, prompting government scrutiny

https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/17/2...nhtsa-petition
Garbage cars no other way to put it
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      01-17-2020, 04:10 PM   #2979
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felon musk can't get tesla on track but will solve puerto rico's power issues, flint's water problem, california's traffic problem, the space program and now twitter?

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon...twitter-2020-1
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      01-17-2020, 04:26 PM   #2980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King_Leonard View Post
Why does TSLA's market cap... remind me so much of WeWork?
Because some people don't know how to read a 10k so they think similar things must be the same?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Tesla light years ahead of everyone else in the industry? Care to elaborate on that one?
I will: Sales. Tesla has no EV sales competitors within an order of magnitude to them - and zero with their market segment growth. Plus, Tesla has almost zero marketing costs because their buyers ARE their marketing department. In business, nothing else matters but sales, and sales growth, and Tesla is king there with a clear sales growth ramp into Europe, China, Semi-trucks, pick-ups, and further existing market segments like the Model Y and new Roadster.

I get it, there are Tesla doubters; just like Google doubters, just like Apple doubters (i nailed it in '99), just like Amazon doubters (nailed this one in '98), just like Facebook doubters (oops - i'm in this bucket, fuck!). Unicorn startups always have doubters because there are always people who think the rear-view mirror is the windshield.

Dudes, if you want to attack Tesla stop using 2017 talking points* you read on So-you-want-to-be-a-Tesla-asshole, and use something from this decade:

E.g., Tesla CA deliveries halved y/y for 2019Q4; this is the direct existential threat to Tesla: Can Tesla cross the chasm from EV sales leader to auto sales player. If they can't get sales back, they didn't cross the chasm to Early Majority, and they're fucked.

(*because as I've posted Tesla's TOTAL lifetime losses are ridiculously small compared to their sales growth - they're on target to earn more profit in a single quarter than they've lost in their entire lifetime - because that's how exponential growth works .... IF they continue to accelerate sales, and the CA drop-off could be the canary that they can't - so use that! sales.)

All the other shit you guys are going after is easily disproved, wrong, or irrelevant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
but... but... but... "it's a tech company not an automobile manufacturer!" this is the bs they want you to believe so you can ignore the fundamentals, pe ratio and lack of earnings.
Who's "they"?

The same "they" that want you to believe that Apple is tech company and not a device manufacturer? That Amazon is tech company and not a retailer? If so, those "they" are smart people and you should be reviewing the reasoning if you disagree on Tesla.

Because, yes, Tesla is absolutely a tech company. and since you're having a hard time seeing that, let's take a look at auto tech today:



That's a pretty complex ecosystem being one-off piecemealed and duplicated by every auto manufacturer. Do you believe they each independently have the ability to maintain and grow that software complexity without security risks? or really maintain just to keep up?

If, like me, you believe they don't (Target didn't, Walmart didn't, Samsung didn't, Blackberry didn't, Nokia didn't, Microsoft didn't! etc) - then who will step in to fix that?

In the case of other industries, a startup did. But in the case of the auto, there's already a startup player doing it: Tesla.

The car is simply becoming a tech end-point just like your phone.
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 01-17-2020 at 04:51 PM..
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      01-17-2020, 04:28 PM   #2981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by King_Leonard View Post
Why does TSLA's market cap... remind me so much of WeWork?
Because some people don't know how to read a 10k so they think similar things must be the same?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Tesla light years ahead of everyone else in the industry? Care to elaborate on that one?
I will: [SIZE="5"]Sales. [/SIZE]Tesla has no sales competitors within an order of magnitude to them - and zero with their market segment growth. Plus, Tesla has almost zero marketing costs because their buyers ARE their marketing department.

I get it, there are doubters; just like Google doubters, just like Apple doubters (i nailed it in '99), just like Amazon doubters (nailed this one in '98), just like Facebook doubters (oops - i'm in this bucket, btw).

Unicorn startups always have doubters because there are always people who think the rear-view mirror is the windshield.

Dudes, if you want to attack Tesla stop using 2017 talking points you read on So-you-want-to-be-a-Tesla-asshole, and use something from this decade:

E.g., Tesla CA deliveries halved y/y for 2019Q4; this is the direct Tesla existential threat: Can Tesla cross the chasm from EV sales leader to auto sales player. If they can't get sales back, they didn't cross the chasm to Early Majority, and they're fucked.

All the other shit you guys are going after is easily disproved, wrong, or irrelevant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
but... but... but... "it's a tech company not an automobile manufacturer!" this is the bs they want you to believe so you can ignore the fundamentals, pe ratio and lack of earnings.
Who's "they"?

The same "they" that want you to believe that Apple is tech company and not a device manufacturer? That Amazon is tech company and not a retailer? If so those are "they" are smart people and you should be reviewing the reasoning if you disagree on Tesla.

Because, yes, Tesla is absolutely a tech company. and since you're having a hard time seeing that, let's take a look at auto tech today:



That's a pretty complex ecosystem being one-off piecemealed by every auto manufacturer. Do you believe they have the ability to maintain that without security risks? or really maintain just to keep up?

If, like me, you believe they don't (Target didn't, Walmart didn't, Samsung didn't, Blackberry didn't, Nokia didn't, Microsoft didn't! etc) - then who will step in to fix that?

In the case of other industries, a startup did. But in the case of the auto, there's already a player doing it: Tesla.
Elon, didn't you daily a M4...
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      01-17-2020, 04:45 PM   #2982
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
I get it, there are Tesla doubters; just like Google doubters, just like Apple doubters (i nailed it in '99), just like Amazon doubters (nailed this one in '98), just like Facebook doubters (oops - i'm in this bucket, btw). Unicorn startups always have doubters because there are always people who think the rear-view mirror is the windshield.
it's been over twelve years. at what point will they be profitable and stand on their own?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Who's "they"?
[/i][/b]
tesla and the folks who put up the cash into tesla.
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      01-17-2020, 04:48 PM   #2983
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Some companies are doing without drawing attention to themselves...

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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post


With respect to auto tech infrastructure, the Germans (especially BMW) have been working in the background for quite some time:

[Nokia], BMW, Mercedes, and Audi are joining forces to take on Google

Bosch joins Intel, BMW, Audi, and Mercedes, buys stake in mapping company Here
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      01-17-2020, 05:35 PM   #2984
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"Apple and Tesla may be market darlings, but hedge funds are betting big they’ll collapse."
"Tesla doubters pushed the dollar amount of its equity borrowed to sell short to $14.5 billion on Wednesday, making it the most-shorted American equity"
Maybe this is why the hedge fund industry has been shrinking for the last 5 years? gambling?
This is why i'm no longer invested (directly) in Apple and never have been with Tesla.

One major reason Tesla's stock is going batshit is because of so many shorts!

As you may know, short-sellers borrow the equity and sell it keeping the cash, betting when they have to pay back the shares they cost less to buy back and so the difference is the profit .... bbbuuuutttt with a volatile stock like Tesla (well, sharp highs/lows: $400/share 52-week price jump!) a nasty whiplash can happen:

If the stock price rises above what the shorters sold for they're in the hole and can be forced to buy back TSLA to repay the loan. Buying at market price raises the price for TSLA! That, in turn, screws other shorters who get hit with the new higher price and THEY have to buy TSLA which triggers more short buy-backs and so on and so on. Pretty soon TSLA is trading at $550/share! (which is why Warren Buffett loves the SSs) Course then what happens is smart money takes profits selling, and the share price falls back which encourages more short-selling! Totally batshit.

Morgan Stanley is recommending selling, and new shorters are shorting now because new shorters are hoping to profit from the old shorter whiplash!

If nothing else, TSLA is the most fun company EVER!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      01-17-2020, 05:51 PM   #2985
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Originally Posted by bayarea328xit View Post
With respect to auto tech infrastructure,[b] the Germans [b](especially BMW) have been working in the background for quite some time:
Sure, but the question is always is tech and software their core competency? Or a distraction from manufacturing cars?

In retail, tech was distraction, thus Target and Walmart now quake when Amazon comes up in conversation.

In cell phones, tech was a distraction thus the fall of Nokia, Blackberry, and Microsoft (who were all working in the background )

So the question is, will autos be different? If I'm betting, I'd say no and a startup platform (or two) will take over the industry, but it's a bet.

Let's see what happens after the first major security breach.
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      01-17-2020, 07:36 PM   #2986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Sure, but the question is always is tech and software their core competency? Or a distraction from manufacturing cars?

In retail, tech was distraction, thus Target and Walmart now quake when Amazon comes up in conversation.

In cell phones, tech was a distraction thus the fall of Nokia, Blackberry, and Microsoft (who were all working in the background )

So the question is, will autos be different? If I'm betting, I'd say no and a startup platform (or two) will take over the industry, but it's a bet.

Let's see what happens after the first major security breach.
I totally agree with you.

Tesla is certainly more willing to take risks - that may give them an edge to build in advantage in tech and software.

I don't see the Germans (especially BMW and Mercedes) treating tech or software as a distraction - people forget that their driver assistance systems (really integration of systems from Bosch/Continental) are now decades old. They are just super cautious.

Let's see how it goes...
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      01-17-2020, 08:01 PM   #2987
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Originally Posted by flybigjet View Post
Tesla cars are accelerating without warning, prompting government scrutiny

https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/17/2...nhtsa-petition
Hopefully for Tesla that turns out to be merely a floormat issue...
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      01-17-2020, 09:37 PM   #2988
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it's been over twelve years. at what point will they be profitable and stand on their own? tesla and the folks who put up the cash into tesla.
So first, "people who put their cash into Tesla" have either made a ton of money and/or are worth multiples of invested cash. (short sellers have gotten e-fucked for 5 years in a row) E.g., $500k in TSLA in june, sold this week, made you $875,000. Not a bad 6 month earning. So "they" don't care what we think.

Second, as previously posted, Tesla has been profitable 3 of the last 5 quarters, and that's WITH the costs of building new factories and starting international manufacturing and delivery operations from scratch. Those costs will be disappearing, as will $4 billion of convertible bond debt.

If Tesla sales continue to exponentially increase as expected in the US, Europe, and Asia - including in new market segments and in new services - Tesla will make more in a quarter than they've lost for their entire history. (exponential is pretty steep and not intuitive to humans which is why so many people get startups wrong)

So Tesla's been profitable for 3 of 5 quarters and have plenty of time and investors who've gotten quite wealthy with their Tesla cash. Tesla stands on their own quite well.

Exponential sales from people shifting from ICE alternatives is the only thing that matters now, everything else is a distraction, and if they can't show that with the Model Y, I'll move into the doubters camp with you
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      01-17-2020, 09:46 PM   #2989
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
So first, "people who put their cash into Tesla" have either made a ton of money and/or are worth multiples of invested cash. (short sellers have gotten e-fucked for 5 years in a row
you're looking at it from a buy and hold POV. short-sellers aren't trading like that. look at the charts in reverse and tell me who made more money. secondly majority of this run up is because of short covering and now back to short-selling. there are very few "investors" in this stock outside of the institutions that put up the seed money and fed money into it over the years. from 2008 through now is buckets of losses versus a couple of tear drops of profits. the only analogy i can think of is the degenerate gambler who has years of losses then hits big on a super bowl pool and yells "i told you so!" only counting the recent win not the decade or so of losses.
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      01-17-2020, 09:53 PM   #2990
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Originally Posted by bayarea328xit View Post
I don't see the Germans (especially BMW and Mercedes) treating tech or software as a distraction - people forget that their driver assistance systems (really integration of systems from Bosch/Continental) are now decades old. They are just super cautious
Oh agreed! It's classic clay-christiansen disruption stuff.

The Germans won't THINK of tech as a distraction, but it is! because the power structures of their companies are built around manufacturing - that's where all the sunshine comes from and tech will always be 2nd place ... because if cost center A get $100B in funding and cost center B gets $1B ... corporate law takes over:

High performing tech people don't like to be 2nd chair so they leave and go to tech companies ... like Tesla. (we both know BMW has an office over in mountain view i think, but nobody from there is going to be running BMWNA anytime soon) Anyway, once Tesla opens their gigafactory in Berlin, expect talent drain, is my 2 cents because promotion and $$.

Target.com at first white-labeled amazon, then got scared, then in-sourced and brought in wave after wave of big pedigree tech people who all left. Does anyone think Target.com is a big online retail presence today? they were able to just squeak by. (i haven't been in a target or used target.com in a decade and I was an almost daily customer)

Wal-mart bought Jet and gave them senior exec spots; prior to that, they were nervous. Costco is the interesting exception in this space ...

Anyway, you're right, the Germans are trying, but I think they'll lose the tech race, because it just culturally ain't their jam.

EDIT: OH!! Let's not forget that SpaceX is the largest spacecraft operator on the planet which a constellation of satellites dedicated to internet service. Kind of a big deal for Tesla, both for providing services, but more for instantly gathering GLOBAL data and running analytics.

one small example: A Tesla is a hit and run victim and other Teslas on the road track the perpetrator and forward location and evidence to the police. More importantly: the world's largest real-time auto-pilot data gathering network. also fart noises are real farts happening right now. possibilities are endless!
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 01-17-2020 at 10:50 PM..
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      01-17-2020, 10:42 PM   #2991
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...
I am investor in BMW because I agree with their thinking regarding the long term adoption of EV and autonomous driving -- having the Quandt family own such a large stake in the company, I find, gives it the ability to plan for the *realistic* long term scenarios without worrying too much about how the market (maybe irrationally) responds today.

This is simply my opinion (backed up by my current investment stake).

I've believe that BMW has done a great job anticipating the most desired UX for the driver (including iDrive), autonomy/driver assistance systems and has the right strategy for the impending change from the ICE to (PHEV)/EV.

That is why I own their cars and invest in their company. Ditto for my investment in Continental AG (after their most recent drop).
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      01-18-2020, 10:44 PM   #2992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Because some people don't know how to read a 10k so they think similar things must be the same?
Of course. How stupid of WeWorks' investors.
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