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      09-04-2019, 01:43 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
Has anyone noticed that BMW leases as of this year are far worse than ever before?

The stated lease deals online are only for 7,500 miles per year and are at a much lower residual value than before. Is BMW now matching up with Audi and Benz? Did they get themselves in trouble on so many upside down cars? It at least seems that it's far less worth it to lease a BMW these days than ever before.
This is not just true for BMW, but for everyone.
The cars went up significantly in price, the cars are worth less on trade in, and financing is more expensive (the money factor). So across the board you are going to see higher lease prices.

In order to 'game' the advertising, they will post 'cheaper' leases like the $299 special but only on unrealistic mileage (and that's before any taxes or fees with bloated down payments). You can either pay for a higher mileage allotment, or take the risk in mileage overage fees. Whichever works best for you.

I think you'll notice that buying a CPO or a non CPO but under warranty will give you a lower 'monthly payment' than leasing with 0 down especially if you have good credit.

Of course it's cyclical and in a year or so it could change again.

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      09-04-2019, 02:19 PM   #46
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Why's that?
I usually don't want to own a BMW after a certain amount of miles.

That being said, I am seriously considering buying out my ZHP once the lease is up.

We'll see how it maintains over the next 2 1/2 years.
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      09-05-2019, 01:41 PM   #47
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I think it's more to do with the cyclical nature of the auto industry. New vehicles sales are declining while used vehicle sales increase. BMW probably needs to make more $'s/car to make up for the decrease in volume.
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      09-09-2019, 12:13 PM   #48
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Yeah, the leases aren't as good as they used to be, but it shouldn't be too shocking. The average cost of a new car has skyrocketed across all manufacturers thus lease prices inevitably have to increase as well.

Last I checked, the average new car price was something around $38,xxx. The average new BMW price was something around $56,xxx. Average cost is at an all time high and will most likely continue to increase for some time.

Used car market is going to continue to explode as it already has been. The average car age on the road is like 12 years old which only continues to get older. Quality and reliability has improved throughout all manufacturers so more cars are lasting longer and more people are driving these cars longer. Factor that with the new car average price hitting all time highs (many people/families cannot afford these cars, but that's another topic) so people look to CPO and pre-owned and you have an exploding used car market and a stagnate or decline in new car sale volume.
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      09-09-2019, 02:45 PM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CLABRO View Post
Yeah, the leases aren't as good as they used to be, but it shouldn't be too shocking. The average cost of a new car has skyrocketed across all manufacturers thus lease prices inevitably have to increase as well.

Last I checked, the average new car price was something around $38,xxx. The average new BMW price was something around $56,xxx. Average cost is at an all time high and will most likely continue to increase for some time.

Used car market is going to continue to explode as it already has been. The average car age on the road is like 12 years old which only continues to get older. Quality and reliability has improved throughout all manufacturers so more cars are lasting longer and more people are driving these cars longer. Factor that with the new car average price hitting all time highs (many people/families cannot afford these cars, but that's another topic) so people look to CPO and pre-owned and you have an exploding used car market and a stagnate or decline in new car sale volume.
As new car sales are imploding, that has an effect on the used car market (and prices).

Less new cars in the pipeline means fewer cars to enter the used market.

They go hand in hand, not in inverse.

You are also assuming USA has not hit peak car ownership which rest of World hit over past 24 months or so and it seems USA hit in 2018.

Thus not all current cars will be replaced as Uber and Lyft have taken hold, becoming more mainstream.
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      09-11-2019, 09:56 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
As new car sales are imploding, that has an effect on the used car market (and prices).

Less new cars in the pipeline means fewer cars to enter the used market.

They go hand in hand, not in inverse.

You are also assuming USA has not hit peak car ownership which rest of World hit over past 24 months or so and it seems USA hit in 2018.

Thus not all current cars will be replaced as Uber and Lyft have taken hold, becoming more mainstream.
I mostly agree. Though I see Lyft and Uber as increasing demand for autos and not really dampening it as much as you might expect. As they allow people to shift their cars into revenue vehicles quickly they will increase demand from some buyers.

The problem for German car manufacturers is both this end and the other end I talk about below (used market) prioritize reliability and operating costs over almost all else. So the overall market may not collapse, but the winners and losers may shift mightily.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CLABRO View Post
Yeah, the leases aren't as good as they used to be, but it shouldn't be too shocking. The average cost of a new car has skyrocketed across all manufacturers thus lease prices inevitably have to increase as well.

Last I checked, the average new car price was something around $38,xxx. The average new BMW price was something around $56,xxx. Average cost is at an all time high and will most likely continue to increase for some time.

Used car market is going to continue to explode as it already has been. The average car age on the road is like 12 years old which only continues to get older. Quality and reliability has improved throughout all manufacturers so more cars are lasting longer and more people are driving these cars longer. Factor that with the new car average price hitting all time highs (many people/families cannot afford these cars, but that's another topic) so people look to CPO and pre-owned and you have an exploding used car market and a stagnate or decline in new car sale volume.
This is going to put serious pressure on manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes to shed their poor reliability image. They've already started down this road by expanding their CPO cars to have various amounts of unlimited mileage coverage for 1 year (3 years with extensions).

These warranties will expand over time and put their feet to the fire to ensure their cars are actually able to last a while otherwise they'll lose sales in the secondary market and primary market (as the resale values staying low are a direct drag on leasing rates).

You couple that with the uprise of advanced luxury and technology in mainstream car brands and the sideways swipe coming from Tesla who is doing a great job of appealing to the tech hungry nature of the younger market. The used market being the primary market for car sales profitability is a serious headwind for German car makers.
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      09-12-2019, 07:12 AM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
As new car sales are imploding, that has an effect on the used car market (and prices).

Less new cars in the pipeline means fewer cars to enter the used market.

They go hand in hand, not in inverse.

You are also assuming USA has not hit peak car ownership which rest of World hit over past 24 months or so and it seems USA hit in 2018.

Thus not all current cars will be replaced as Uber and Lyft have taken hold, becoming more mainstream.
Pretty sure they are inverted. Less new car sales = lower supply of used cars = higher prices for used car for a given demand.
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      09-12-2019, 01:59 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
As new car sales are imploding, that has an effect on the used car market (and prices).

Less new cars in the pipeline means fewer cars to enter the used market.

They go hand in hand, not in inverse.

You are also assuming USA has not hit peak car ownership which rest of World hit over past 24 months or so and it seems USA hit in 2018.

Thus not all current cars will be replaced as Uber and Lyft have taken hold, becoming more mainstream.
Pretty sure they are inverted. Less new car sales = lower supply of used cars = higher prices for used car for a given demand.
You are assuming used car demand will continue at current pace with Peak Car in the past.

Logic says they both will fall.
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      09-12-2019, 02:45 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
You are assuming used car demand will continue at current pace with Peak Car in the past.

Logic says they both will fall.
If people are buying less cars because there's less world demand for cars, perhaps. If people are buying less new cars because they no longer have money for new cars, I'd disagree.

All I know is that all my older cars are appreciating
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      09-12-2019, 02:47 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
You are assuming used car demand will continue at current pace with Peak Car in the past.

Logic says they both will fall.
If people are buying less cars because there's less world demand for cars, perhaps. If people are buying less new cars because they no longer have money for new cars, I'd disagree.

All I know is that all my older cars are appreciating
Uber / Lyft is reducing need for car ownership, especially with younger generations.

Cars from the past 20 years are not appreciating.
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      09-12-2019, 03:12 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Cars from the past 20 years are not appreciating.
I mean, you're free to think whatever you want, but...

Haggery says they are: https://grassrootsmotorsports.com/pr...is-bmw-m3-now/

Classic and sports car says they are: https://www.classicandsportscar.com/...ics-to-buy-now

Doug says they are:


They are selling for increasingly more on sites like bring a trailer:
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2004-bmw-m3-36/

Or gooding and company:
https://www.goodingco.com/vehicle/2002-bmw-m5/
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      09-12-2019, 03:23 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Cars from the past 20 years are not appreciating.
I mean, you're free to think whatever you want, but...

Haggery says they are: https://grassrootsmotorsports.com/pr...is-bmw-m3-now/

Classic and sports car says they are: https://www.classicandsportscar.com/...ics-to-buy-now

Doug says they are:


They are selling for increasingly more on sites like bring a trailer:
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2004-bmw-m3-36/

Or gooding and company:
https://www.goodingco.com/vehicle/2002-bmw-m5/
WILL is future, not current.

And I serious doubt you have less than 500 miles on your cars and they are "of museum quality" as some of those links refer to.
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      09-12-2019, 03:29 PM   #57
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They already have started going up-- at all mileages. Next time Haggerty opens up their price trends (currently behind a payway, but they open them up from time to time, give them a peak).

Those two cars I linked are certainly the top of the market, but top top of the market has been rising (as has all of it).

A year ago, anyone paying $90,000 for an e46 M3 (with 16,000 miles on it, btw) or $176,000 for an e39 M5 was unheard of
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      09-12-2019, 03:37 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
They already have started going up-- at all mileages. Next time Haggerty opens up their price trends (currently behind a payway, but they open them up from time to time, give them a peak).

Those two cars I linked are certainly the top of the market, but top top of the market has been rising (as has all of it).

A year ago, anyone paying $90,000 for an e46 M3 (with 16,000 miles on it, btw) or $176,000 for an e39 M5 was unheard of
To bad your cars are not as early as those models
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      09-12-2019, 05:48 PM   #59
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Quote:
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To bad your cars are not as early as those models
... what? My cars are exactly those models, and later years of a given chassis are worth more.

E.g. That M3 was an 04. I have an 04 and an 05 M3. E46 M3 was made from 01-06.

I really have no idea what point you’re trying to make.
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      09-13-2019, 09:38 AM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
They already have started going up-- at all mileages. Next time Haggerty opens up their price trends (currently behind a payway, but they open them up from time to time, give them a peak).

Those two cars I linked are certainly the top of the market, but top top of the market has been rising (as has all of it).

A year ago, anyone paying $90,000 for an e46 M3 (with 16,000 miles on it, btw) or $176,000 for an e39 M5 was unheard of
Price gouging and manipulation plain and simple. Those artificially inflated bubbles will burst sooner or later.

Apologies but you have to be very stupid to pay $90K for an E46 M3, I do not care if it has 1 mile on the odometer and was preserved in a hermetically closed room.

Nothing special about them and thousands were made. Another less than reliable early 2000s E Chassis BMW.

Crackpipe as they say..
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      09-13-2019, 09:39 AM   #61
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When I was car shopping last summer, the best M4 lease deals I could find were $800+ per month. Hard pass
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      09-13-2019, 09:51 AM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Price gouging and manipulation plain and simple. Those artificially inflated bubbles will burst sooner or later.

Apologies but you have to be very stupid to pay $90K for an E46 M3, I do not care if it has 1 mile on the odometer and was preserved in a hermetically closed room.

Nothing special about them and thousands were made. Another less than reliable early 2000s E Chassis BMW.

Crackpipe as they say..
Since both cars I linked were auctions, hard to say it's "gouging". They were bid to those prices.
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      09-13-2019, 10:03 AM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Price gouging and manipulation plain and simple. Those artificially inflated bubbles will burst sooner or later.

Apologies but you have to be very stupid to pay $90K for an E46 M3, I do not care if it has 1 mile on the odometer and was preserved in a hermetically closed room.

Nothing special about them and thousands were made. Another less than reliable early 2000s E Chassis BMW.

Crackpipe as they say..
Since both cars I linked were auctions, hard to say it's "gouging". They were bid to those prices.
Still gouging. Fools and their loads money soon depart..
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      09-13-2019, 10:25 AM   #64
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Those were pretty extreme examples I linked. But, market value for all but the worst, most destroyed cars has been steadily going up for the last 2-3 years on both e46 M3s and e39 M5s.
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      09-13-2019, 11:11 AM   #65
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Those were pretty extreme examples I linked. But, market value for all but the worst, most destroyed cars has been steadily going up for the last 2-3 years on both e46 M3s and e39 M5s.
Look if you own or desire an E46 M3, do so for all the right reasons but not believing this is some sort of high yield mutual fund investment.

Prices in these cars are fueled by speculation and pipe dream premises based on the "Good old days" or when BMW "Cared about the act of driving". Some folks want to live forever locked in the year 2004, and that is fine, but the world, the automotive industry and BMW has moved on.

Truth is that if anyone feels so strongly about NA 6 cyl engines, manual transmissions and artificially heavy hydraulic power steering, they don't need to spend $90K to get into an old school pre-2010 BMW. Nothing special about those cars made in the thousands and not with the best reliability (E46 sub frames anyone?). But circling back to my point: if an older BMW is your thing enjoy it but always for the right reasons.
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      09-13-2019, 11:57 AM   #66
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Quote:
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Look if you own or desire an E46 M3, do so for all the right reasons but not believing this is some sort of high yield mutual fund investment.

Prices in these cars are fueled by speculation and pipe dream premises based on the "Good old days" or when BMW "Cared about the act of driving". Some folks want to live forever locked in the year 2004, and that is fine, but the world, the automotive industry and BMW has moved on.

Truth is that if anyone feels so strongly about NA 6 cyl engines, manual transmissions and artificially heavy hydraulic power steering, they don't need to spend $90K to get into an old school pre-2010 BMW. Nothing special about those cars made in the thousands and not with the best reliability (E46 sub frames anyone?). But circling back to my point: if an older BMW is your thing enjoy it but always for the right reasons.
FYI the steering on older BMWs is lighter than the new ones. The problem with modern BMW steering has nothing to do with weight, though that seems to forever be a point of confusion.

I've been driving an e46 M3 for 16 years now, including putting around 20,000 track miles on one of them. So, I like to think I'm in it "for the right reasons".

I don't expect my cars to be an appreciating asset. In fact, it's impossible for them to be, since I have zero intent of selling.

But, they are appreciating-- and they're appreciating in spite of the, as you point out, large supply. Implying that there's a large number of people that do, indeed, miss the good old days when BMW made cars that were good to drive.
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