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View Poll Results: Ultimate S55 Spun Crank Hub Poll -- Please vote
2014-2015 | 6MT | Stock | No SCH 42 6.50%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 23 3.56%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 11 1.70%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 3 0.46%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 5 0.77%
2014-2015 | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 3 0.46%
2014-2015 | DCT | Stock | No SCH 72 11.15%
2014-2015 | DCT | Stock | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2014-2015 | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 45 6.97%
2014-2015 | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 5 0.77%
2014-2015 | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 25 3.87%
2014-2015 | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 3 0.46%
2014-2015 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 13 2.01%
2014-2015 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 4 0.62%
2016 | 6MT | Stock | No SCH 26 4.02%
2016 | 6MT | Stock | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2016 | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 15 2.32%
2016 | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2016 | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 8 1.24%
2016 | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2016 | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 0 0%
2016 | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Stock | No SCH 4 0.62%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 0 0%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 0 0%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 0 0%
2016 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | DCT | Stock | No SCH 44 6.81%
2016 | DCT | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 16 2.48%
2016 | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2016 | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 14 2.17%
2016 | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 3 0.46%
2016 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Stock | No SCH 9 1.39%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 0 0%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 3 0.46%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2016 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2017 | 6MT | Stock | No SCH 4 0.62%
2017 | 6MT | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2017 | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2017 | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2017 | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 1 0.15%
2017 | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Stock | No SCH 12 1.86%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Stock | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 1 0.15%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 1 0.15%
2017 | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | DCT | Stock | No SCH 11 1.70%
2017 | DCT | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2017 | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2017 | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 3 0.46%
2017 | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2017 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 3 0.46%
2017 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Stock | No SCH 15 2.32%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 8 1.24%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 9 1.39%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 5 0.77%
2017 | DCT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2018+ | 6MT | Stock | No SCH 19 2.94%
2018+ | 6MT | Stock | SCH Failure 0 0%
2018+ | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 2 0.31%
2018+ | 6MT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2018+ | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 1 0.15%
2018+ | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 4 0.62%
2018+ | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 0 0%
2018+ | 6MT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Stock | No SCH 28 4.33%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Stock | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 7 1.08%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 5 0.77%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 3 0.46%
2018+ | 6MT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 0 0%
2018+ | DCT | Stock | No SCH 19 2.94%
2018+ | DCT | Stock | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2018+ | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 6 0.93%
2018+ | DCT | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure) 0 0%
2018+ | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 1 0.15%
2018+ | DCT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2018+ | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 1 0.15%
2018+ | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 1 0.15%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Stock | No SCH 33 5.11%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Stock | SCH Failure 3 0.46%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | No SCH 6 0.93%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Modified 450-500 whp | SCH Failure) 1 0.15%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | No SCH 8 1.24%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure 2 0.31%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | No SCH 4 0.62%
2018+ | DCT Comp Package | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure 6 0.93%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 646. You may not vote on this poll

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      01-10-2019, 01:05 PM   #67
IK6SPEED
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smeargle View Post
If you get a hub changed(just the hub) which is more often than not the case for warranty claims, the hub is prone to going again shortly after because retiming the motor is a very hard job and most dealers can't do it. So yes.
Hmmmm

So out of 238 (technically) votes, count is actually 28.

9 2014-2015
3 2016
3 2017
13 2018

Years label corrected.
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      01-10-2019, 01:27 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Hmmmm

So out of 238 (technically) votes, count is actually 28.

9 2014-2015
3 2015
3 2016
13 2018
*owns a 2018 DCT and uses kickdown in S3 often*
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      01-10-2019, 03:03 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Hmmmm

So out of 238 (technically) votes, count is actually 28.

9 2014-2015
3 2015
3 2016
13 2018
You may have missed one from an MY2017

2017 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure = 1

Seeing the reports for MY2018 is a bit scary. It makes you wonder if BMW rushed the 2018s out to push sales.
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      01-10-2019, 04:34 PM   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Tom Cruise View Post
*owns a 2018 DCT and uses kickdown in S3 often*
hahahahaha.....Damnit man...56k stage 2 tune no issues....calm down
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      01-10-2019, 05:13 PM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bmwlmr99 View Post
hahahahaha.....Damnit man...56k stage 2 tune no issues....calm down
Lol. Is yours a 2018? And how many miles out of the 56K have you been stage 2? Seems like the running theory is that for 2018 models they may have incorrectly torqued X amount from the factory.

I'm planning on going BM3 within the next few weeks.
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      01-11-2019, 03:15 AM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Tom Cruise View Post
Lol. Is yours a 2018? And how many miles out of the 56K have you been stage 2? Seems like the running theory is that for 2018 models they may have incorrectly torqued X amount from the factory.

I'm planning on going BM3 within the next few weeks.
originally had a piggyback at 20k, upgraded to stage one at 27k , stage 2 at 46k....however I've never ran E85 or methanol injection....just 93 octane, no drifting or hard launches at the drag strip every weekend
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      01-11-2019, 12:45 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nars3000 View Post
You may have missed one from an MY2017

2017 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure = 1

Seeing the reports for MY2018 is a bit scary. It makes you wonder if BMW rushed the 2018s out to push sales.
I labeled 2015/2016 incorrectly.

My mistake.

Will correct.

Also...grasping at straws...drivetrain change in Nov 2017 (MY 2018).

Would be interesting to know which drivetrains the 2018 failures have been.

michaelf80 msmching projectme numairk moonshine89 MDriver2000 aspahn Ziggy66 2SNAILS ey2001 F806speed Smeargle
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      01-11-2019, 01:36 PM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Also...grasping at straws...drivetrain change in Nov 2017 (MY 2018).

Would be interesting to know which drivetrains the 2018 failures have been.
Interesting for sure. What was the drivetrain change for MY2018 in Nov 2017?
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      01-11-2019, 02:03 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nars3000 View Post
Interesting for sure. What was the drivetrain change for MY2018 in Nov 2017?
https://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1411862

Given the GRADUALLY REPLACED line, I am not sure November 2017 is a clear date that can be be universally used.
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      01-11-2019, 02:10 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
https://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1411862

Given the GRADUALLY line, I am not sure November is a clear date that can be be universally used.
Ahh, IIRC, this change didn't take effect until after March 2018.
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      01-11-2019, 02:26 PM   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nars3000 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
https://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1411862

Given the GRADUALLY line, I am not sure November is a clear date that can be be universally used.
Ahh, IIRC, this change didn't take effect until after March 2018.
Just read through thread. That appears correct.

As I said, grasping for straws.
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      01-12-2019, 12:40 AM   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by nars3000 View Post
You may have missed one from an MY2017

2017 | DCT | Modified 550+ whp | SCH Failure = 1

Seeing the reports for MY2018 is a bit scary. It makes you wonder if BMW rushed the 2018s out to push sales.
I labeled 2015/2016 incorrectly.

My mistake.

Will correct.

Also...grasping at straws...drivetrain change in Nov 2017 (MY 2018).

Would be interesting to know which drivetrains the 2018 failures have been.

michaelf80 msmching projectme numairk moonshine89 MDriver2000 aspahn Ziggy66 2SNAILS ey2001 F806speed Smeargle
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      01-12-2019, 08:37 AM   #79
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Mine was a mis click, never had the issue
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      01-14-2019, 02:51 PM   #80
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I made an account to answer the survey. Currently own a 2015 M4 DCT with no SCH problems.

But it's worth mentioning that a survey such as this has really low power to determine the actual percentage of failures in a given model year run.

As an example, if there were 2000 M4 DCTs in the 2014 - 2015 run (actual production may be a bit higher) and we managed to survey 100 people about their SCH problems, at a 95% confidence interval that gives a margin of error of 10%....

Let's say we get 100 responses (quite optimistic) for that run and get a failure rate of 5%. At a margin of error of 10%, all we can say is that the rate of SCH failure is less than or equal to 15%. Quite an absurd number - if 15% of those vehicles were failing, there likely would have been a recall or service bulletin in my opinion.

We may get enough responses to generate some statistical power by summing responses across all model years and WHP levels, but because the mods and years may themselves affect the rate of SCH failure, it's hard to say with any confidence what such data means in the real world.

In other words, only BMW will ever know the real rate of SCH failure.

That said, I'm all for this survey and hope as many people as possible fill it out!
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      01-14-2019, 03:39 PM   #81
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Quote:
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Mine was a mis click, never had the issue
+1
So was mine!
Car runs perfect
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      01-14-2019, 10:12 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alphakinase View Post
I made an account to answer the survey. Currently own a 2015 M4 DCT with no SCH problems.

But it's worth mentioning that a survey such as this has really low power to determine the actual percentage of failures in a given model year run.

As an example, if there were 2000 M4 DCTs in the 2014 - 2015 run (actual production may be a bit higher) and we managed to survey 100 people about their SCH problems, at a 95% confidence interval that gives a margin of error of 10%....

Let's say we get 100 responses (quite optimistic) for that run and get a failure rate of 5%. At a margin of error of 10%, all we can say is that the rate of SCH failure is less than or equal to 15%. Quite an absurd number - if 15% of those vehicles were failing, there likely would have been a recall or service bulletin in my opinion.

We may get enough responses to generate some statistical power by summing responses across all model years and WHP levels, but because the mods and years may themselves affect the rate of SCH failure, it's hard to say with any confidence what such data means in the real world.

In other words, only BMW will ever know the real rate of SCH failure.

That said, I'm all for this survey and hope as many people as possible fill it out!
It’s not a random survey of BMW S55 owners so no matter the n= count, it will not be scientific.

You cannot accurately predict margin of error [B]to the real world[B] in a non-random sample survey. You can only predict margin of error to the universe of owners that opted in on Bimmerpost.
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      01-15-2019, 12:54 PM   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
It’s not a random survey of BMW S55 owners so no matter the n= count, it will not be scientific.

You cannot accurately predict margin of error [B]to the real world[B] in a non-random sample survey. You can only predict margin of error to the universe of owners that opted in on Bimmerpost.
Might be right - I'm not a statistician, just an enthusiast.

Either way I think we can agree that the survey is of little value in determining the true rate of failure - which is exactly the information someone making the choice of keeping/selling or buying into the M3/4 world would want to know in order to make their decision.

So these results should be looked at with a high degree of skepticism. Still they're likely to be of interest to the community here, especially if there is an obvious trend towards a certain model year, setup, or WHP number. We'll need a good number of responses to get at that information though.

Last edited by alphakinase; 01-15-2019 at 12:57 PM.. Reason: added clarification
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      01-15-2019, 10:53 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2SNAILS View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by projectme View Post
Mine was a mis click, never had the issue
+1
So was mine!
Car runs perfect
Mine was also a mis click on mobile
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      01-15-2019, 11:04 PM   #85
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Mobile vote options.

I'm on mobile and can't seem to vote.
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      01-17-2019, 11:29 AM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by numairk View Post
Mine was also a mis click on mobile
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheONE24 View Post
I'm on mobile and can't seem to vote.
Android or Apple?
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      01-17-2019, 01:16 PM   #87
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Just voted, hopefully we can keep this thread going! Really interesting.. barley any people seem to be having the crank hub issue, it's really making me want to flash stage 1 lol.
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      01-18-2019, 10:03 AM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alphakinase View Post

In other words, only BMW will ever know the real rate of SCH failure.
You are assuming that every single person who has had a failure has brought the car to a BMW dealer, although the overall numbers are pretty low, I am sure that some of the cars out of warranty may have been brought straight to a specialty shop and not BMW direct.
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