Buy out my 2016 M3 ZCP or lease a new 2018 M3 CS?

[Ibiza]

@frankiebones Buying out a lease is the worse financial decision, but depends on how much disposable cash you have to part with. When we mod our leases there is the upfront cost and then the costs to remove at lease turn in.

When you initially leased your M3, what was your exit strategy back then with all the mods you installed? Appears that you modded for a CS experience, but the DCT is hindering your move into a CS. Your going to have to heavily mod the G80 pure edition if your insisting on a 6MT, as you'll have to accept reality that DCT/AT is the future for the M3/M4. If money is no issue, then buy out your current lease and wait it out for G80 in 2021 once prices drop, but the G80 won't be pricing like the CS currently is.

[visi107]

Originally Posted by Ibiza

@frankiebones Buying out a lease is the worse financial decision, but depends on how much disposable cash you have to part with. When we mod our leases there is the upfront cost and then the costs to remove at lease turn in.

When you initially leased your M3, what was your exit strategy back then with all the mods you installed? Appears that you modded for a CS experience, but the DCT is hindering your move into a CS. Your going to have to heavily mod the G80 pure edition if your insisting on a 6MT, as you'll have to accept reality that DCT/AT is the future for the M3/M4. If money is no issue, then buy out your current lease and wait it out for G80 in 2021 once prices drop, but the G80 won't be pricing like the CS currently is.

Can you elaborate why you think buying the lease is ''the worst" financial decision. I don't think I would agree with that.

IF you compare just buying the car(finance) VS leasing + buying it . . . No questions about it, leasing + buying will cost more financially, agree 100%. . . But in this case the car has already been leased so I wouldn't look at this as lease + buy because the first decision is done and cant change it. You can only control that when originally lease the car. Now, this becomes just buying a used car. If you turn in and lease another car or turn in and finance a new car then that will cost more. (yes you are getting a newer car but it's still costing more)
If you say well you can buy a used car similar stats for less than the residual . . .Ok maybe, not a sure thing . . but the uncertainty there is that you don't know how that car was treated or mis-treated where as in this case you were using the car yourself. And BMWFS now directly discounts the residual value based on certain factors so who knows maybe the discount is a good one.

[Ibiza]

Originally Posted by visi107

Can you elaborate why you think buying the lease is ''the worst" financial decision. I don't think I would agree with that.

IF you compare just buying the car(finance) VS leasing + buying it . . . No questions about it, leasing + buying will cost more financially, agree 100%. . . But in this case the car has already been leased so I wouldn't look at this as lease + buy because the first decision is done and cant change it. You can only control that when originally lease the car. Now, this becomes just buying a used car. If you turn in and lease another car or turn in and finance a new car then that will cost more. (yes you are getting a newer car but it's still costing more)
If you say well you can buy a used car similar stats for less than the residual . . .Ok maybe, not a sure thing . . but the uncertainty there is that you don't know how that car was treated or mis-treated where as in this case you were using the car yourself. And BMWFS now directly discounts the residual value based on certain factors so who knows maybe the discount is a good one.

OP is considering buying out his lease, but there is a $12,000 difference between the FMV (KBB) and the contracted lease buy out price. The BMW FS lease buyout incentive was $800 for MY 2016 and MY 2017 M3 models back July 2018. If OP were to buy out the lease in 3 months, the F80 is only going to further depreciate and the negative equity of $11,200 will have to be eventually be absorbed by the OP when the F80 is sold to acquire a G80. Either lease a M3 6MT or the CS, but all of the installed mods will have to be removed. As we all know, BMW FS artificially inflates the RV to lower the monthly lease payment, but a majority of the time in 36 months the buyout doesn't reflect the FMV. I

[visi107]

Originally Posted by Ibiza

OP is considering buying out his lease, but there is a $12,000 difference between the FMV (KBB) and the contracted lease buy out price. The BMW FS lease buyout incentive was $800 for MY 2016 and MY 2017 M3 models back July 2018. If OP were to buy out the lease in 3 months, the F80 is only going to further depreciate and the negative equity of $11,200 will have to be eventually be absorbed by the OP when the F80 is sold to acquire a G80. Either lease a M3 6MT or the CS, but all of the installed mods will have to be removed. As we all know, BMW FS artificially inflates the RV to lower the monthly lease payment, but a majority of the time in 36 months the buyout doesn't reflect the FMV. I

I agree with what you are saying in concept but you have to break this down and once you do that the difference is a lot less than 12K. From what the OP posted, the 49K is the buyout TODAY with sales tax. His lease is up in three months so the residual will be much less bc those three months worth of lease payment will be accounted for and I wouldn't include the sales tax in the comparison so that way it's apples to apples. Assuming 8% sales tax and guessing an 800 monthly lease payment then the actual residual value of the car is close to 43-44K (i'm guessing here, obviously op would know this for sure)

The KBB of 37K doesn't include sales tax and it's an underestimation or perhaps it's a trade in value. If you look at the classified section here most 2016 M3s are listed in the mid to high 40s at least the ones with a clear title.
Then you have to add the cost (monetary or time) of removing all the modes and the cost of transferring them to the new car. There is also the cost of the extra miles that he would owe if he turned the car in (yes the cost of the extra miles will decrease the car value when he trades it in in 3-4 years lets say but that will be less than the actual cost of the miles today he will owe to BMWFS)

This is just discussing the financial point of view . . Personally I would release and that's what i did . . had a 2016 M3 and just leased another CS. It will be more expensive in the long run but i like getting a new car and don't have to deal with extra mileage issues or mods . .(well except for camber plates lol).