Anyone else get banned from the G8X section for making fun of its looks?

[ABenLauda]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I have no numbers in mind, I'm just trying to be reasonable based on math.

That is, if 20% of sales (i.e., of TAM) is substantial, then it's substantial everywhere in all markets in all places; forget cars, Samsung has ~20% of smartphone market; not substantial? ... but then reasons are for the reasonable!

Thus if you're insisting on special math just for EVs then we can move on ....

Here's why I recommended including the CAGR: growth is sneaky!
Assuming a static market & rule of 72, suppose EV sales were 1% of sales in 2010 (we'll ignore segments for now).

If those sales are growing at a ~14% CAGR then it takes 5 years to double, i.e., get to 2%. Well, 5 years is llloooonnnggg time to get to 2%! Not even noticeable to anyone who's not looking. Doesn't exist.

In another 5 years, assuming no changes, EVs are 4%. Again, pretty hard for anyone not looking to notice. A full DECADE to get to only 4%?? EVs are bullshit MAN! Going nowhere right? It might even look like "sales have leveled off at 3.5% for years"

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2020 <-------

BUT. In the next 5 years, EVs are 8% of sales ... now a few people might be noticing ... you're seeing them around and it was just 5 years ago there were, like, none right? Must be a fluke. And for you, inconsequential. Nothing burger. Probably just the wind.

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2025 <-------

In the next 5 years, EVs are 16%! That seems like a "substantial" number to me in absolute terms, but more specifically in growth terms. The two together seem pretty indicative: the dam has broke. But for you, still a nothing burger. A tree has fallen in the forest and nobody heard it.

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2030 <-------

Now whether one considers 16% "substantial" or not I'm sure you'll debate, but FYI, at a 15% CAGR that 16% will be 32% in 5 years which passes pretty much everyone's bar.


So growth is very easy to ignore, especially in the first 10-15 years but the above 1%-32% of market growth happened in 25 years assuming a static growth rate ... but what if the growth rate accelerates? Obviously that 25 years is going to compress ... and what might accelerate the growth rate?

* Government regulations (like what's in place in China and EU de facto banning ICE by 2030 ish)
* Government incentives (like what's in place in China, the EU, USA)
* Availability of ICE vehicles, parts, fuel - like what's happening now globally


In any event, I'd say we've entered a perfect storm for accelerating EV sales growth:

(1.) Global government incentives, targets, penalties & investments

(2.) Upcoming product debuts: The pickup truck market (Rivian, Tesla, Ford); The premium market (Polestar, Tesla, Lucid, Porsche, Audi, BMW, Benz); the mid-market (Ford, Hyundai, Mazda, Toyota, Nissan)

(3.) Proliferation of charging stations & infrastructure

(4.) ICE supply chain destruction (certainly Tier 2 & 3, Tier 1 likely shrinks by 50%)

(5.) Oil prices

(6.) BONUS: The kids. There are probably kids out there now whose family has never owned an ICE in their memory


My point is, if you ignore the growth rate, you get surprised, especially when that growth rate starts accelerating.

And for the last 2 decades every industry has ignored the growth rate until bankruptcies result (retail sales, smart phones, video rentals, advertising, taxis, etc).

Will auto sales be the exception? I doubt it.

Not trying to be sarcastic, but I am impressed by the detail in almost every one of this person’s responses! How do you get so much time daily for all this?

[swagon]

Frequent poop breaks at work

[IMG]https://tenor.com/w0Ml.gif[/IMG]

[Thescout13]

Delivery week! Signing papers on Tuesday picking up at PECLA Friday. Super stoked

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Thescout13

Delivery week! Signing papers on Tuesday picking up at PECLA Friday. Super stoked

Awesome and congrats!

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

Gauges are trash, I still cannot believe that with all of this tech BMW won't offer some proper customization, my wife's GLE has better gauges. The tachometer is illegible in both the vertical gauges and backwards gauges. Please just give us a proper tach BMW.

Yep, 100% agreed and said it many times here. I absolutely hated the guages and felt like I was always guessing with the rpms (in either dash mode). Not good.

[RugbyBro]

NickyC you ever test drive that CS at ispringhausen?

[CT_M3]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

Gauges are trash, I still cannot believe that with all of this tech BMW won't offer some proper customization, my wife's GLE has better gauges. The tachometer is illegible in both the vertical gauges and backwards gauges. Please just give us a proper tach BMW.

Some photos, viewer discretion advised.

Attachment 2758755

In total agreement with the gauges, bad execution, especially compared to Porsche's simple understated electronic gauges in the 992. I'd take that all day, every day.

One other thing I noted with this new gen and also in the new 3 series is how large the center console/tunnel is. It takes up so much real estate and almost feels like they did it hide how much bigger the car is or is now.

I personally disliked the center console/tunnel area and how it is in the new cars. One more thing I found was the new lane assist was pretty unsubtle in its corrections.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by ABenChod

Not trying to be sarcastic, but I am impressed by the detail in almost every one of this person’s responses! How do you get so much time daily for all this?

But THIS is what I'm taking the poop breaks from

[kyrix1st]

I love Porsche because it continues to give a European middle finger to Green Nazis.

[swagon]

Originally Posted by kyrix1st

I love Porsche because it continues to give a European middle finger to Green Nazis.

They really don't, though. No one can give a 'middle finger' to the EU, some just are able to work around the strict rules better than others.

The NA 4.0 was given ITBs mostly because it allowed them to pass then-new emission regulations. It's got an OPF, too.

Low-volume manufacturers are exempt from some of the regs. Porsche isn't one of them.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Thescout13

Delivery week! Signing papers on Tuesday picking up at PECLA Friday. Super stoked

Sweet! I can't wait to see it. Did you experience any delay at the port?

[Thescout13]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Sweet! I can't wait to see it. Did you experience any delay at the port?

Nope. 2 days from arrival to being on the truck last month at Benecia

[Thescout13]

Originally Posted by kyrix1st

I love Porsche because it continues to give a European middle finger to Green Nazis.

.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Thescout13

Nope. 2 days from arrival to being on the truck last month at Benecia

Since I'm not doing PECLA, mine will come out of San Diego, right?!

[Thescout13]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Since I'm not doing PECLA, mine will come out of San Diego, right?!

Depends. Some folks in SoCal had cars go to Houston. So luck of the draw I think.

[Darth One]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

So this weekend was pretty interesting. Helped a friend pick up his "new" daily, an S65 Coupe with the glorious Twin-Turbocharged 6.0L AMG V12 engine. Thing sounds fantastic not to mention has 738lb-ft of torque at as low as 2,000 RPM with 621HP as well, all to the rear wheels (4Matic doesn't fit with the V12). Pretty fun to push this big boat.

Attachment 2758752

We ended up meeting with some mutual friends, one of which had purchased a G80 M3C AWD that he's putting on Turo. I ended up getting a quick spin in the driver's seat as well as some time in the passenger seat.

Didn't spend too much time driving but some impressions:

Car is incredibly fast, as well all know, too fast if anything, easily low 3's for 0-60 especially with xDrive. I only spent time in 4WD Sport but grip is plentiful and the engine has more than enough power for days.

The exhaust is very meh, sounds similar to the S55 with a little less raspy-ness to it, but overly manufactured inside with the stupid speakers emphasizing every brap, pop, and crackle.

Steering is still numb but the weighting has been fixed to be a bit more natural compared to other modern BMW's.

I found the handling to be very good, car feels buttoned down and controlled with an overall firm but not too busy suspension (although will need more time to test out). Certainly rides better than the pogo stick that is the X3M. The car's weight is noticeable with the extra weight on the front-end in the xDrive version. Haven't tested out a RWD variant but I imagine that will offer a better balance and feel.

Manual is the only way to go with this car in my opinion, and even that will need some modifying to make it great. The ZF just misses the mark. Its fine in a 330i, but here its too smooth and not very sharp, it could use more drama. There were many times where either I or my other friend when driving would shift higher up in the redline and the transmission just wasn't quick enough to upshift, too much of a noticeable delay, and the shift paddles are not very enjoyable either.

This car had the comfort seats which were good, still wanna try out the carbon buckets, and still has the annoyingly narrow armrests and intruding door panel of the regular G20. Steering wheel is usual BMW, they are definitely pushing the limits of thickness though. Other interior bits, pretty much a G20 with nicer leathers.

Gauges are trash, I still cannot believe that with all of this tech BMW won't offer some proper customization, my wife's GLE has better gauges. The tachometer is illegible in both the vertical gauges and backwards gauges. Please just give us a proper tach BMW.

Some photos, viewer discretion advised.

Attachment 2758753

Attachment 2758754

Attachment 2758755

This review actually makes it sound better than the F80, complaints about ZF and gauges notwithstanding

[stein_325i]

Originally Posted by Darth One

This review actually makes it sound better than the F80, complaints about ZF and gauges notwithstanding

I haven't really driven an F80 in years (and it was a pre-facelift DCT) so I can't really compare them, closest comparison I could make would be my old M2C with a 6MT and earlier this year I drove my friend's M2 with a DCT. Between the engines I think I like the S55 more due to the low down torque, although I need more time with the S58. Both S55 and S58 need an aftermarket exhaust which I think everyone in here would agree on.

Obviously with the M2C being lighter and smaller overall its the better handling car, but the M3 being newer has improvements in both the steering and suspension which were areas in which sore areas for my M2. I would say from what I remember, the F80 (and to that extension the F87) had its issues, pre-facelift steering was not very good in my opinion, and the suspension was busy, but they felt more raw, in both positive and negative ways (mainly suspension). The DCT is just a much better pairing to the engine than the ZF, and the Manual while enjoyable, like I said, needs a good amount of modifications to make it the best it could be. Overall its more composed in its handling and suspension but a bit less raw as the F80 and F87 require a bit more work and focus which can be enjoyable for some like myself, but others not so much. I'd really have to get them for a back to back drive to truly compare them, I just really think if the car had an acceptable front end and a DCT it'd be closer to a home run. The ZF and AWD pairing, along with the extra weight make it a bit too much like an M340i.

[Thescout13]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

I haven't really driven an F80 in years (and it was a pre-facelift DCT) so I can't really compare them, closest comparison I could make would be my old M2C with a 6MT and earlier this year I drove my friend's M2 with a DCT. Between the engines I think I like the S55 more due to the low down torque, although I need more time with the S58. Both S55 and S58 need an aftermarket exhaust which I think everyone in here would agree on.

Obviously with the M2C being lighter and smaller overall its the better handling car, but the M3 being newer has improvements in both the steering and suspension which were areas in which sore areas for my M2. I would say from what I remember, the F80 (and to that extension the F87) had its issues, pre-facelift steering was not very good in my opinion, and the suspension was busy, but they felt more raw, in both positive and negative ways (mainly suspension). The DCT is just a much better pairing to the engine than the ZF, and the Manual while enjoyable, like I said, needs a good amount of modifications to make it the best it could be. Overall its more composed in its handling and suspension but a bit less raw as the F80 and F87 require a bit more work and focus which can be enjoyable for some like myself, but others not so much. I'd really have to get them for a back to back drive to truly compare them, I just really think if the car had an acceptable front end and a DCT it'd be closer to a home run. The ZF and AWD pairing, along with the extra weight make it a bit too much like an M340i.

I had the opportunity to drive the RWD G80 through our local BMW CCA, and that car is definitely capable compared to my M3 CS. It is seriously quick and good (reminds me a lot of the M5 experience in a smaller package). So I happily can admit it's a better performer than the F80, especially turn in. But, that being said, the ZF leaves a lot to be desired in terms of the theatrics of the DCT and driving experience, the gauges make the car feel a bit too "digital" for my liking (agree with poster above re 992 being the right balance of analog and digital), and I personally cannot get over the front bumper.

If I wasn't ready for the Porsche jump (in terms of affordability and fuck it attitude), which the G8X had an instrumental part in pushing me over the edge, and I couldn't afford to make the move, then maybe eventually I would have broken down and gotten a G80 if I truly couldn't find anything else out there (and trust me I'd be looking hard for something else).

[ash4390]

Terrible day but I just picked this up. M2C last about 4 weeks lol. Need to clean the alcantara steering wheel, but everything else looks good.

[stein_325i]

Originally Posted by ash4390

Terrible day but I just picked this up. M2C last about 4 weeks lol. Need to clean the alcantara steering wheel, but everything else looks good.

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Congrats! She's a beauty

[swagon]

Originally Posted by ash4390

Terrible day but I just picked this up. M2C last about 4 weeks lol. Need to clean the alcantara steering wheel, but everything else looks good.

Hell yeah, what a beauty.

[clutchdj]

Nice