Anyone else get banned from the G8X section for making fun of its looks?

[jmg]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

they probably had to call everyone in just for your car!

Hell yeah. Crack the whip, see you on the weekend, monkeys! JP I was expecting a long wait with the state of things, I'm glad the wheels are still turning and people are able to work to support their livelihoods!

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

I lump all ICE vehicles together, so when we're discussing ICE vs EV (…and making speculation(s) about forthcoming/impending dominance), I look at overall sales. EV's account for somewhere between 3-5% of overall vehicle sales the last time I checked……and that number has remained fairly steady over the years. I don't consider that substantial.

if we're going to use % of total sales then we have to define "substantial" in terms of % of total sales and apply it to everything, since % of total sales is % of everything, right?


Don't you think 25% is kinda high in that context? I would call the pickup market pretty substantial, and it's "only" 20% of US sales ... so shouldn't we pick a number that's similar?

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

if we're going to use % of total sales then we have to define "substantial" in terms of % of total sales and apply it to everything, since % of total sales is % of everything, right?


Don't you think 25% is kinda high in that context? I would call the pickup market pretty substantial, and it's "only" 20% of US sales ... so shouldn't we pick a number that's similar?

I get where you're attempting to go, but you're choosing to separate vehicles within the ICE category. When we talk about phasing out ICE's, we don't separate cars from trucks during those discussions. When EV's, be it trucks, cars or SUV's, capture at least 25% of the market, I will consider that a real threat to ICE's. It sounds like you have a number in mind that you're willing to hedge your bets against. Let's hear it!

[FlyingLow78]

Originally Posted by jmg

IOrdered 2 weeks ago, and it's already on the way! Selling the M3 CS for more than I owe.

Very interesting. I spec'd a new Mini for delivery in Germany from a dealer I've purchased from three times and was told it would be a five-month wait. Crazy how quickly you can get a build slot.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by FlyingLow78

Very interesting. I spec'd a new Mini for delivery in Germany from a dealer I've purchased from three times and was told it would be a five-month wait. Crazy how quickly you can get a build slot.

Some people have been waiting for months to get a build date. I got lucky somehow. It could also be my spec. Standard AW paint, no Driver Assistance Plus either.

[No Boost]

https://bmwi.bimmerpost.com/forums/s....php?t=1880586

The new definition of fulgy....If I saw this in my rear view, I'd catch an "attempt to elude" charge in order to keep this monstrosity as far away as possible.

[RugbyBro]

Originally Posted by jmg

Crack the whip, see you on the weekend, monkeys!!

Seriously you gotta do this… dealers can get things done but you gotta put their feet to the fire, even burn them a little. I’ve got an anecdotal story that I’d love to share but can’t for the time being. But it goes like: dealer promises something (that the buyer knows is undeliverable), dealer ropes buyer along for months with new excuses as to why they can’t deliver, buyer throws dealer on the bbq where they are forced to make the undeliverable thing happen, now the undeliverable is being delivered quite soon. The buyer in this story has an abnormal amount of leverage on the dealer tho, which was used to its full effect.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by RugbyBro

Seriously you gotta do this… dealers can get things done but you gotta put their feet to the fire, even burn them a little. I’ve got an anecdotal story that I’d love to share but can’t for the time being. But it goes like: dealer promises something (that the buyer knows is undeliverable), dealer ropes buyer along for months with new excuses as to why they can’t deliver, buyer throws dealer on the bbq where they are forced to make the undeliverable thing happen, now the undeliverable is being delivered quite soon. The buyer in this story has an abnormal amount of leverage on the dealer tho, which was used to its full effect.

I am lucky I got grandfathered in for my dealership stuff. Porsche and BMW so I never had a lot of problems.

In fact, I don't know how often it is that Porsche dealerships just let you test drive a GT car straight off. I was lucky enough to do so.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

I get where you're attempting to go, but you're choosing to separate vehicles within the ICE category. When we talk about phasing out ICE's, we don't separate cars from trucks during those discussions. When EV's, be it trucks, cars or SUV's, capture at least 25% of the market, I will consider that a real threat to ICE's. It sounds like you have a number in mind that you're willing to hedge your bets against. Let's hear it!

I have no numbers in mind, I'm just trying to be reasonable based on math.

That is, if 20% of sales (i.e., of TAM) is substantial, then it's substantial everywhere in all markets in all places; forget cars, Samsung has ~20% of smartphone market; not substantial? ... but then reasons are for the reasonable!

Thus if you're insisting on special math just for EVs then we can move on ....

Here's why I recommended including the CAGR: growth is sneaky!
Assuming a static market & rule of 72, suppose EV sales were 1% of sales in 2010 (we'll ignore segments for now).

If those sales are growing at a ~14% CAGR then it takes 5 years to double, i.e., get to 2%. Well, 5 years is llloooonnnggg time to get to 2%! Not even noticeable to anyone who's not looking. Doesn't exist.

In another 5 years, assuming no changes, EVs are 4%. Again, pretty hard for anyone not looking to notice. A full DECADE to get to only 4%?? EVs are bullshit MAN! Going nowhere right? It might even look like "sales have leveled off at 3.5% for years"

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2020 <-------

BUT. In the next 5 years, EVs are 8% of sales ... now a few people might be noticing ... you're seeing them around and it was just 5 years ago there were, like, none right? Must be a fluke. And for you, inconsequential. Nothing burger. Probably just the wind.

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2025 <-------

In the next 5 years, EVs are 16%! That seems like a "substantial" number to me in absolute terms, but more specifically in growth terms. The two together seem pretty indicative: the dam has broke. But for you, still a nothing burger. A tree has fallen in the forest and nobody heard it.

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2030 <-------

Now whether one considers 16% "substantial" or not I'm sure you'll debate, but FYI, at a 15% CAGR that 16% will be 32% in 5 years which passes pretty much everyone's bar.


So growth is very easy to ignore, especially in the first 10-15 years but the above 1%-32% of market growth happened in 25 years assuming a static growth rate ... but what if the growth rate accelerates? Obviously that 25 years is going to compress ... and what might accelerate the growth rate?

* Government regulations (like what's in place in China and EU de facto banning ICE by 2030 ish)
* Government incentives (like what's in place in China, the EU, USA)
* Availability of ICE vehicles, parts, fuel - like what's happening now globally


In any event, I'd say we've entered a perfect storm for accelerating EV sales growth:

(1.) Global government incentives, targets, penalties & investments

(2.) Upcoming product debuts: The pickup truck market (Rivian, Tesla, Ford); The premium market (Polestar, Tesla, Lucid, Porsche, Audi, BMW, Benz); the mid-market (Ford, Hyundai, Mazda, Toyota, Nissan)

(3.) Proliferation of charging stations & infrastructure

(4.) ICE supply chain destruction (certainly Tier 2 & 3, Tier 1 likely shrinks by 50%)

(5.) Oil prices

(6.) BONUS: The kids. There are probably kids out there now whose family has never owned an ICE in their memory


My point is, if you ignore the growth rate, you get surprised, especially when that growth rate starts accelerating.

And for the last 2 decades every industry has ignored the growth rate until bankruptcies result (retail sales, smart phones, video rentals, advertising, taxis, etc).

Will auto sales be the exception? I doubt it.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

My point is, if you ignore the growth rate, you get surprised, especially when that growth rate starts accelerating ...

Will auto sales be the exception?

So just did a 30 second search and came up with this:



So EV sales are definitely increasing ... and my CAGR number would be 15% - as above, anything in that range indicates a game over to me, i.e., it's just a time game now unless that number drops ...

Well, based on the above, at least globally, the CAGR would be ~80% over the last decade (but we had covid sooo... still. that seems large. like really fucking large.)

[ash4390]

What's everyone's thoughts on the 30 Jahre M3?

My dealer has one with about 45000km on it, single owner, local car, no decs, full service records. I'll likely be able to do a straight trade for my M2C that's only a few weeks old (to me lol).

I've always been an F80 guy, just love the wide hips. Asking price is 75k CDN. Thoughts?

[GERMAN M3]

Originally Posted by ash4390

What's everyone's thoughts on the 30 Jahre M3?

My dealer has one with about 45000km on it, single owner, local car, no decs, full service records. I'll likely be able to do a straight trade for my M2C that's only a few weeks old (to me lol).

I've always been an F80 guy, just love the wide hips. Asking price is 75k CDN. Thoughts?

If it’s really what you want, then go for it. Have always loved the 30 Jahre. If I’m not mistaken 75k CDN translates to about 58k US which is actually a pretty descent price in today’s market. I’ve seen a few hear in the US sell for more with more miles on the odometer.

[ash4390]

Originally Posted by GERMAN M3

If it’s really what you want, then go for it. Have always loved the 30 Jahre. If I’m not mistaken 75k CDN translates to about 58k US which is actually a pretty descent price in today’s market. I’ve seen a few hear in the US sell for more with more miles on the odometer.

Thanks for the info! I'm gonna go take a peek and see how it looks, if it's not too beat up then I may make a move on it.

Interestingly enough, the dealer has a 2019 M4cs as well, but Alpine White, with weird all season tires on it, and red brake calipers (4 pot regular brakes, but look like they're hand painted).





Going to take a look at that too, but the AW isn't really doing it for me. Only $20k more though...

[Darth One]

Boy this is the wrong thread to open when you're drunk

[ash4390]

Originally Posted by Darth One

Boy this is the wrong thread to open when you're drunk

Not enough P-car content

[minn19]

Originally Posted by ash4390

What's everyone's thoughts on the 30 Jahre M3?

My dealer has one with about 45000km on it, single owner, local car, no decs, full service records. I'll likely be able to do a straight trade for my M2C that's only a few weeks old (to me lol).

I've always been an F80 guy, just love the wide hips. Asking price is 75k CDN. Thoughts?

I never really got the hype, it’s just an appearance package. An M3 CS is a much better car IMO. That M4 CS with A/S tires is weird but could just be a clueless dealer trying to save a buck by not putting Cup 2s back on.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I have no numbers in mind, I'm just trying to be reasonable based on math.

That is, if 20% of sales (i.e., of TAM) is substantial, then it's substantial everywhere in all markets in all places; forget cars, Samsung has ~20% of smartphone market; not substantial? ... but then reasons are for the reasonable!

Thus if you're insisting on special math just for EVs then we can move on ....

Here's why I recommended including the CAGR: growth is sneaky!
Assuming a static market & rule of 72, suppose EV sales were 1% of sales in 2010 (we'll ignore segments for now).

If those sales are growing at a ~14% CAGR then it takes 5 years to double, i.e., get to 2%. Well, 5 years is llloooonnnggg time to get to 2%! Not even noticeable to anyone who's not looking. Doesn't exist.

In another 5 years, assuming no changes, EVs are 4%. Again, pretty hard for anyone not looking to notice. A full DECADE to get to only 4%?? EVs are bullshit MAN! Going nowhere right? It might even look like "sales have leveled off at 3.5% for years"

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2020 <-------

BUT. In the next 5 years, EVs are 8% of sales ... now a few people might be noticing ... you're seeing them around and it was just 5 years ago there were, like, none right? Must be a fluke. And for you, inconsequential. Nothing burger. Probably just the wind.

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2025 <-------

In the next 5 years, EVs are 16%! That seems like a "substantial" number to me in absolute terms, but more specifically in growth terms. The two together seem pretty indicative: the dam has broke. But for you, still a nothing burger. A tree has fallen in the forest and nobody heard it.

-------> let's say we're roughly here in 2030 <-------

Now whether one considers 16% "substantial" or not I'm sure you'll debate, but FYI, at a 15% CAGR that 16% will be 32% in 5 years which passes pretty much everyone's bar.


So growth is very easy to ignore, especially in the first 10-15 years but the above 1%-32% of market growth happened in 25 years assuming a static growth rate ... but what if the growth rate accelerates? Obviously that 25 years is going to compress ... and what might accelerate the growth rate?

* Government regulations (like what's in place in China and EU de facto banning ICE by 2030 ish)
* Government incentives (like what's in place in China, the EU, USA)
* Availability of ICE vehicles, parts, fuel - like what's happening now globally


In any event, I'd say we've entered a perfect storm for accelerating EV sales growth:

(1.) Global government incentives, targets, penalties & investments

(2.) Upcoming product debuts: The pickup truck market (Rivian, Tesla, Ford); The premium market (Polestar, Tesla, Lucid, Porsche, Audi, BMW, Benz); the mid-market (Ford, Hyundai, Mazda, Toyota, Nissan)

(3.) Proliferation of charging stations & infrastructure

(4.) ICE supply chain destruction (certainly Tier 2 & 3, Tier 1 likely shrinks by 50%)

(5.) Oil prices

(6.) BONUS: The kids. There are probably kids out there now whose family has never owned an ICE in their memory


My point is, if you ignore the growth rate, you get surprised, especially when that growth rate starts accelerating.

And for the last 2 decades every industry has ignored the growth rate until bankruptcies result (retail sales, smart phones, video rentals, advertising, taxis, etc).

Will auto sales be the exception? I doubt it.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by minn19

youtube

Well, did it work???

but I get it: read the room

[minn19]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well, did it work???

but I get it: read the room

I wasn’t saying the last part, it is interesting I just suck at business stuff like that. I always laugh/think about that part of the movie when these discussions come up because that’s basically all I hear.

That’s one of my favorite movies because it was the first one my daughter and went to see in the theater together. Plus it’s pretty funny with some good stuff for adults. The micromanagers attack part/line is pretty funny for anyone that has put up with corporate BS.

[stein_325i]

So this weekend was pretty interesting. Helped a friend pick up his "new" daily, an S65 Coupe with the glorious Twin-Turbocharged 6.0L AMG V12 engine. Thing sounds fantastic not to mention has 738lb-ft of torque at as low as 2,000 RPM with 621HP as well, all to the rear wheels (4Matic doesn't fit with the V12). Pretty fun to push this big boat.



We ended up meeting with some mutual friends, one of which had purchased a G80 M3C AWD that he's putting on Turo. I ended up getting a quick spin in the driver's seat as well as some time in the passenger seat.

Didn't spend too much time driving but some impressions:

Car is incredibly fast, as well all know, too fast if anything, easily low 3's for 0-60 especially with xDrive. I only spent time in 4WD Sport but grip is plentiful and the engine has more than enough power for days.

The exhaust is very meh, sounds similar to the S55 with a little less raspy-ness to it, but overly manufactured inside with the stupid speakers emphasizing every brap, pop, and crackle.

Steering is still numb but the weighting has been fixed to be a bit more natural compared to other modern BMW's.

I found the handling to be very good, car feels buttoned down and controlled with an overall firm but not too busy suspension (although will need more time to test out). Certainly rides better than the pogo stick that is the X3M. The car's weight is noticeable with the extra weight on the front-end in the xDrive version. Haven't tested out a RWD variant but I imagine that will offer a better balance and feel.

Manual is the only way to go with this car in my opinion, and even that will need some modifying to make it great. The ZF just misses the mark. Its fine in a 330i, but here its too smooth and not very sharp, it could use more drama. There were many times where either I or my other friend when driving would shift higher up in the redline and the transmission just wasn't quick enough to upshift, too much of a noticeable delay, and the shift paddles are not very enjoyable either.

This car had the comfort seats which were good, still wanna try out the carbon buckets, and still has the annoyingly narrow armrests and intruding door panel of the regular G20. Steering wheel is usual BMW, they are definitely pushing the limits of thickness though. Other interior bits, pretty much a G20 with nicer leathers.

Gauges are trash, I still cannot believe that with all of this tech BMW won't offer some proper customization, my wife's GLE has better gauges. The tachometer is illegible in both the vertical gauges and backwards gauges. Please just give us a proper tach BMW.

Some photos, viewer discretion advised.

[RugbyBro]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

So this weekend was pretty interesting. Helped a friend pick up his "new" daily, an S65 Coupe with the glorious Twin-Turbocharged 6.0L AMG V12 engine. Thing sounds fantastic not to mention has 738lb-ft of torque at as low as 2,000 RPM with 621HP as well, all to the rear wheels (4Matic doesn't fit with the V12). Pretty fun to push this big boat.

Attachment 2758752

We ended up meeting with some mutual friends, one of which had purchased a G80 M3C AWD that he's putting on Turo. I ended up getting a quick spin in the driver's seat as well as some time in the passenger seat.

Didn't spend too much time driving but some impressions:

Car is incredibly fast, as well all know, too fast if anything, easily low 3's for 0-60 especially with xDrive. I only spent time in 4WD Sport but grip is plentiful and the engine has more than enough power for days.

The exhaust is very meh, sounds similar to the S55 with a little less raspy-ness to it, but overly manufactured inside with the stupid speakers emphasizing every brap, pop, and crackle.

Steering is still numb but the weighting has been fixed to be a bit more natural compared to other modern BMW's.

I found the handling to be very good, car feels buttoned down and controlled with an overall firm but not too busy suspension (although will need more time to test out). Certainly rides better than the pogo stick that is the X3M. The car's weight is noticeable with the extra weight on the front-end in the xDrive version. Haven't tested out a RWD variant but I imagine that will offer a better balance and feel.

Manual is the only way to go with this car in my opinion, and even that will need some modifying to make it great. The ZF just misses the mark. Its fine in a 330i, but here its too smooth and not very sharp, it could use more drama. There were many times where either I or my other friend when driving would shift higher up in the redline and the transmission just wasn't quick enough to upshift, too much of a noticeable delay, and the shift paddles are not very enjoyable either.

This car had the comfort seats which were good, still wanna try out the carbon buckets, and still has the annoyingly narrow armrests and intruding door panel of the regular G20. Steering wheel is usual BMW, they are definitely pushing the limits of thickness though. Other interior bits, pretty much a G20 with nicer leathers.

Gauges are trash, I still cannot believe that with all of this tech BMW won't offer some proper customization, my wife's GLE has better gauges. The tachometer is illegible in both the vertical gauges and backwards gauges. Please just give us a proper tach BMW.

Some photos, viewer discretion advised.

Attachment 2758753

Attachment 2758754

Attachment 2758755

I saw one for the first time that didn't trigger my gag reflex today... It was a G80 in BSM. I also didn't know what the heck it was until it got close enough (BSM works wonders), and then I thought: well in the upside-down where I own a G80, it would HAVE to be in BSM.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

Car is incredibly fast ... in 4WD Sport ... grip is plentiful and the engine has more than enough power for days.

I found the handling to be very good, car feels buttoned down and controlled with an overall firm but not too busy suspension ... Certainly rides better than the pogo stick that is the X3M. The car's weight is noticeable with the extra weight on the front-end in the xDrive version.

Manual is the only way to go with this car in my opinion, and even that will need some modifying to make it great. The ZF just misses the mark.

This car had the comfort seats which were good

Every one of these applies to my X5M to my butt, especially given the same transmission and seats.

In daily driver situations many people have said they're the same car and I can see why ... but I'll take my V8 over the I6

The comparo is either a compliment to the X5M or a criticism of the G8x, but it can't be both.