SSOTT

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well, if you buy now, you might be buying at the top of the market:

I thought most of the watches from Rolex nowadays will deappreciate in value?

I looked through some used Submariners and most of them are deappreicated.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Arcades

I thought most of the watches from Rolex nowadays will deappreciate in value?

I looked through some used Submariners and most of them are deappreicated.

huh???? Rolex steel sports are in a crazy bubble right now - if you found rolexes depreciating they're fake or in horrible shape. It's impossible to buy a new sub, as in you can't walk into a store and buy one, no matter where in the World you try, because they won't have any. The waiting lists have years next to them.

If you want an air king or yacht master, those you can find new, but nothing rolex steel sports.

Here's some listings from bobwatches.com just now with the year and prices:

[GrussGott]

Here's off of the rolex website MSRP, so if you compare this to the one in the upper right that's 10 years old ... and of course you literally can't buy this one, so basically a 10 year old watch is going for more than original MSRP (and most other brands are discounted off of MSRP 30% - 50% - you can find Breitling super oceans for 50% off)

[GrussGott]

I've been shopping for a luxe watch for years but never bought one because i could never get to the bottom of why I want one / what job will it do for me ...

* Impress chicks? i'm married
* Impress coworkers? how could I impress them more?
* Impress randos? seems WAY too needy (it's important to pretend I'm not)
* Art appreciation? The appreciation is in the looking vs cars, which is in the driving so ...

So it's reduced to basically i'm wearing super expensive art which probably isn't the smartest idea ...

And so after years of watch shopping and buying other watches, but never a luxury watch, it hit me: I'm not a luxury watch guy!

I like the idea of luxury watches, but I can't ever see my way through to the practical use of one (like I can with cars). For me, wearing a Rolex in public would be at best a little embarrassing and at worst purely stupid as it's asking to get robbed or have burglars stop by your house later.

So at some point this year I'll buy some nice watches, but the cost will be wrapped up in materials engineering and dedicated-use technology versus precious metals and/or brand premium.

#firstworldproblems

[Lups]

You guys, today a guy showed up to evaluate who's going to pay for stripping electrical lines from our property, and while I was talking, my t-shirt disintegrated. A sleeve fell off.

I kept on talking, he kept on staring.


"Hey, this ain't striptease , this is not shopping. Go on"

"Sorry, just did not know that's possible. I do realize that we are talking about 700 euros, and we'll do it for free, but I seriously need to see how a t shirt can do that. Obviously you've been working, but seriously, how did that happen?"

I think I should shop, like shop at all. Not even watches but clothes. Even a little .

This ends the entry of a life as a Lups for today. And honestly, I don't get how that happened either.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by Lups

You guys, today a guy showed up to evaluate who's going to pay for stripping electrical lines from our property, and while I was talking, my t-shirt disintegrated. A sleeve fell off.

I kept on talking, he kept on staring.


"Hey, this ain't striptease , this is not shopping. Go on"

"Sorry, just did not know that's possible. I do realize that we are talking about 700 euros, and we'll do it for free, but I seriously need to see how a t shirt can do that. Obviously you've been working, but seriously, how did that happen?"

I think I should shop, like shop at all. Not even watches but clothes. Even a little .

This ends the entry of a life as a Lups for today. And honestly, I don't get how that happened either.

You had me at stripping?

For context, it's happy hour here.

[Lups]

Originally Posted by Schwarzschild Radius

You had me at stripping?

For context, it's happy hour here.

I had me at that too, to be honest.

It's wine o'clock here. I'm going all in.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Here's off of the rolex website MSRP, so if you compare this to the one in the upper right that's 10 years old ... and of course you literally can't buy this one, so basically a 10 year old watch is going for more than original MSRP (and most other brands are discounted off of MSRP 30% - 50% - you can find Breitling super oceans for 50% off)

I would love to have that tbh.

I was hoping to like, find one with a white face since I already have a black one but I can always look around my area. Not sure how much I trust Asian stores though...

On a completely unrelated note. Getting random electronic gremlins again in the Macan S. This time an engine check light came on with Engine Control Fault error, then my father in the morning (who drove the car today) said he got an AWD error and the Macan S defaulted to RWD only.

Fun! He isn't too impressed with Porsches lol. Made the appointment with Porsche DTLA already and found out my SA is no longer working there... another little fun surprise for the day.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Lups

You guys, today a guy showed up to evaluate who's going to pay for stripping electrical lines from our property, and while I was talking, my t-shirt disintegrated.

I saw a movie once that started like this ... it had a happy ending

No? Hello? anyone?

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I saw a movie once that started like this ... it had a happy ending

No? Hello? anyone?

This is spinal tap?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Schwarzschild Radius

This is spinal tap?

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Do his headphones go to 11?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Schwarzschild Radius

Do his headphones go to 11?

He's elon musk bitch - his headphones go to wherever the fuck he says they do.

Hey, in other news, we've started the exit countdown of The Big Plan.

Which, amongst other things, includes an insanely nerdy analysis of home renting vs buying. 10 years ago when we launched The Big Plan we decided to never own a home again - while property can be a great investment, it's just not for us ... and there are a lot of reasons for this: risk, flexibility, hassle, disintegrating clothing, there's a long list ...

Anyway, it's no secret that silicon valley is one of the best housing markets in the World - since we moved here, homes we would've purchased (and looked at!) are 2x or more ... so all of this begs the question, were we stupid not to buy?

Well to start, we live in a luxury building with stunning views across 2/3 or our living space of 2 mountain ranges (Santa Cruz & Diablos) and all of south silicon valley down to Monterey (although we can't actually see it - too far away) for WAY WAY cheaper than any home would cost, and we're 10 min from the airport. So it's very nice and very convenient - to take a trip we just pack, walk out the door, grab a cab that's waiting. And we have no maintenance, no taxes, and for us, very little spending on furnishings, etc

But we rent, so what's the convenience costing us?

First, leasing limits our risk to both market changes and our own changes so if something HAD happened we will and would've come out ahead, but nevertheless it didn't and the market has gone nuts. So we built a model that includes EVERYTHING: taxes, inflation, interest rates, estimated costs and ignores some house costs like utilities and garbage just to keep the data noise down.

In short, housing returns have been about 10%/y with S&P returns at about 13%/y - so our money is better off in market until you account for our renting costs. Once you do that, bay area housing gains overtake and it's cost us about $1700/month in profit we would've had if we'd bought (or about the cost of a nice M4 or porsche).

More interesting is the financial risks: from the day you buy here, based on the last 10 years of housing prices, you need about 1 year just to break even if you were to sell, ignoring all other factors. When you factor in investment income, it's about a 3 year break-even ... and even now, if housing prices (of those that we'd actually buy, not medians) dropped just 10%, we'd be even between renting and buying, or worse off buying ... that's a lot of risk!

In short, buying a single family house, even in one of the hottest real estate markets, is an iffy-to-risky proposition at <10 years and a big maybe at <20 years.

So, as things have gone, it's cost us $130k in profits; but if things had gone slightly worse (or do before we exit!) then we'll be ahead. I'm still very comfy with the choice to rent FOR US.

As for any of this applying to anyone else ... very dependent on your circumstances of course.

[Arcades]

Anyone know a good OBD-II Port Reader for fault codes? Trying to find one.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Arcades

Anyone know a good OBD-II Port Reader for fault codes? Trying to find one.

not sure if this is current but i've used PLX and Torque Pro

looks like PLX has a v3 now

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

not sure if this is current but i've used PLX and Torque Pro

looks like PLX has a v3 now

Ahh alright I will check it out Thanks Gruss.

minn19 I just learned something. Apparently AMG and RS cars have worse residuals than Ms. Hence the reason why, least in LA, you don't see those around nearly as often. Audi RS cars do hold their value better. The only AMG cars that seemed to do so are AMG G wagons and Black series. A 63S with 3 year lease has a 49% residual lol

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Arcades

Ahh alright I will check it out Thanks Gruss.

minn19 I just learned something. Apparently AMG and RS cars have worse residuals than Ms. Hence the reason why, least in LA, you don't see those around nearly as often. Audi RS cars do hold their value better. The only AMG cars that seemed to do so are AMG G wagons and Black series. A 63S with 3 year lease has a 49% residual lol

Yup, pretty much all Audi and MB cars do. I think I told you, but I got into a small argument with an Audi salesman at the local auto show. When were looking for a car for my wife she really liked the S5 sport back and the S6.

But, they all lease like crap, which we talked to the Audi salesman about. He complained about BMW subsidizing their leases (true) and then asked if we’ve ever tried to get out of a BMW lease. I said yes we did last year and just paid the remaining payments and turned it in early. He said something like well if you ever try to trade out of one you’ll get crushed. To which, I responded I know just as you would on an Audi. And you’d have to pay more to get out because the payments are much higher. He oddly then said what if we have twins, which my wife laughed because I’m “fixed” and she has no current plans to cheat on me. After a little more back and forth he walked away frustrated to talk to someone else.

Any way, we were able to lease our M550 cheaper at about 81k MSRP compared to a 64k S5. The RS5s and S6 were stupid money to lease.

[minn19]

Lups Bottas won the Azerbaijan F1 race! I know you are so excited!

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by minn19

Yup, pretty much all Audi and MB cars do. I think I told you, but I got into a small argument with an Audi salesman at the local auto show. When were looking for a car for my wife she really liked the S5 sport back and the S6.

But, they all lease like crap, which we talked to the Audi salesman about. He complained about BMW subsidizing their leases (true) and then asked if we've ever tried to get out of a BMW lease. I said yes we did last year and just paid the remaining payments and turned it in early. He said something like well if you ever try to trade out of one you'll get crushed. To which, I responded I know just as you would on an Audi. And you'd have to pay more to get out because the payments are much higher. He oddly then said what if we have twins, which my wife laughed because I'm "fixed" and she has no current plans to cheat on me. After a little more back and forth he walked away frustrated to talk to someone else.

Any way, we were able to lease our M550 cheaper at about 81k MSRP compared to a 64k S5. The RS5s and S6 were stupid money to lease.

Actually I do remember haha. Fun times messing with sales ppl

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by minn19

Any way, we were able to lease our M550 cheaper at about 81k MSRP compared to a 64k S5. The RS5s and S6 were stupid money to lease.

it's almost irresponsible not to lease a bmw.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

it's almost irresponsible not to lease a bmw.

For me, I think it's irresponsible not getting Nardo Grey w/ any Audi RS cars. Always seeing those damn white Audi RS5 makes me sad.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

it's almost irresponsible not to lease a bmw.

Agreed, they are obviously nice and we'd really like to try one someday, but not at the price premium. Most Audi owners must buy or really like them to lease at those payments.

By the way we tried LC on the new M550 and holy shit we went straight to plaid. That thing would destroy my M3 (or any M3/4) off the line DCT/MT it wouldn't matter/wow. I'm not a huge fan of AWD, but it does have it's advantages.

For those who don't know the plaid reference......