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      04-16-2015, 06:09 PM   #23
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You can't plan on a 65% residual for a MY16. Residuals change month to month and I would bet they will be different for a new model year with important changes.
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      04-16-2015, 08:23 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
You can't plan on a 65% residual for a MY16. Residuals change month to month and I would bet they will be different for a new model year with important changes.
Right, and I would expect significantly less. When the M3/M4 came out in March 2014 for orders, the rates were:

MF. .0013
15k 55%
12k 57%
10k 58%

So I would assume 58% and be pleasantly surprised if it's higher. The current 65% (36/10kyr) rate is among the highest BMW has ever offered for a 36 month lease for any of their models. It isn't going to last, and I expect that (partly) the reason is that this LCI refresh for the M3 will be more than just some LED taillights. The 2016 M3's model code is 8M93, while the current one is 3C93. That means it will be a significant change. At 65%/71% (36/24 month), BMW doesn't want many 2015's left on the lot when the 2016's come out.
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      04-16-2015, 10:07 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Right, and I would expect significantly less. When the M3/M4 came out in March 2014 for orders, the rates were:

MF. .0013
15k 55%
12k 57%
10k 58%

So I would assume 58% and be pleasantly surprised if it's higher. The current 65% (36/10kyr) rate is among the highest BMW has ever offered for a 36 month lease for any of their models. It isn't going to last, and I expect that (partly) the reason is that this LCI refresh for the M3 will be more than just some LED taillights. The 2016 M3's model code is 8M93, while the current one is 3C93. That means it will be a significant change. At 65%/71% (36/24 month), BMW doesn't want many 2015's left on the lot when the 2016's come out.
Great. That would make my decision really easy not to lease
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      04-17-2015, 07:48 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by AlexDD View Post
Yes please, if you could. Can you calculate the ED invoice and US delivery invoice.

If you posted a screenshot, it is not showing up. I can't calculate till I see your build.
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      04-17-2015, 11:50 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Right, and I would expect significantly less. When the M3/M4 came out in March 2014 for orders, the rates were:

MF. .0013
15k 55%
12k 57%
10k 58%

So I would assume 58% and be pleasantly surprised if it's higher. The current 65% (36/10kyr) rate is among the highest BMW has ever offered for a 36 month lease for any of their models. It isn't going to last, and I expect that (partly) the reason is that this LCI refresh for the M3 will be more than just some LED taillights. The 2016 M3's model code is 8M93, while the current one is 3C93. That means it will be a significant change. At 65%/71% (36/24 month), BMW doesn't want many 2015's left on the lot when the 2016's come out.
Significant refresh not happening on a 1 year old car....just sayin.
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      04-17-2015, 12:37 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MKParris View Post
Significant refresh not happening on a 1 year old car....just sayin.
Significant is probably too strong a subjective word for an LCI, but don't be surprised to see something notable (in a good way). Probably similar to the 2013 vs. 2014 M5. That 2014 M5 LCI brought a comp package, new colors, updated tech, new lights, etc. after just one model year.
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      04-17-2015, 01:03 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsm918
Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Right, and I would expect significantly less. When the M3/M4 came out in March 2014 for orders, the rates were:

MF. .0013
15k 55%
12k 57%
10k 58%

So I would assume 58% and be pleasantly surprised if it's higher. The current 65% (36/10kyr) rate is among the highest BMW has ever offered for a 36 month lease for any of their models. It isn't going to last, and I expect that (partly) the reason is that this LCI refresh for the M3 will be more than just some LED taillights. The 2016 M3's model code is 8M93, while the current one is 3C93. That means it will be a significant change. At 65%/71% (36/24 month), BMW doesn't want many 2015's left on the lot when the 2016's come out.
Great. That would make my decision really easy not to lease
+1 I calculated my cost of leasing vs financing over 3 years and leasing came out 5-7k more expensive. I don't really have the space for two cars and I'd want to keep a paid off car if I leased anyways. I'll likely keep the car through the build cycle and drive for a year or so with no payment and then buy another.

If I owned a business and lived in a state that didn't tax the entire car price on a lease then I'd definitely lease though.
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      04-17-2015, 03:14 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsm918 View Post
If you posted a screenshot, it is not showing up. I can't calculate till I see your build.
Sorry, this should work:
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      04-17-2015, 03:19 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV
Quote:
Originally Posted by MKParris View Post
Significant refresh not happening on a 1 year old car....just sayin.
Significant is probably too strong a subjective word for an LCI, but don't be surprised to see something notable (in a good way). Probably similar to the 2013 vs. 2014 M5. That 2014 M5 LCI brought a comp package, new colors, updated tech, new lights, etc. after just one model year.
I think that's a good comparison. We know the F30 LCI though is getting some significant changes so it will be interesting to see what changes with the F80.
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      04-17-2015, 03:47 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexDD View Post
Sorry, this should work:
still doesn't show. Just use the upload feature of the forum.
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      04-17-2015, 04:28 PM   #33
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      04-17-2015, 05:15 PM   #34
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Changing residuals

I'm somewhat new to the leasing game, so let me ask - is it possible the high residuals are just because we are near the end of the model year? I.e., maybe the 2016s will start with lower residuals, but next April will come back up in a similar way? Or is there something else going on?

I'm planning on leasing-to-buy a 2016 M3 next year, hopefully ordering march-april, Euro deliver in May, and having the vehicle arrive at my dealership around when my current lease ends on June 30, 2016. Hopefully, everyone will be talking about the 2017s then and residuals on the 2016s will be nice and high. For those of you who are knowledgable let me know if there is some sort of a problem with that plan! (i.e. It will be too late to order a 2016).

In California, with excellent credit it makes a lot of sense to lease to buy because you defer taxes. I'm expecting to buy this car at the end but having the option is nice...who knows maybe in 3 years I'll be ready to go electric

If I hadn't put money down and MSDs on my current lease I'd try to get out of it but perhaps this is a sign I should spend the next year getting finances in order and making sure I can actually afford this

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Manual
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Hoping for some more paint color choices.
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      04-17-2015, 07:32 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexDD View Post
screenshot attached.

US Invoice = $66,745

ED Invoice = $62,800
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      04-17-2015, 07:38 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whttiger25 View Post
I'm somewhat new to the leasing game, so let me ask - is it possible the high residuals are just because we are near the end of the model year? I.e., maybe the 2016s will start with lower residuals, but next April will come back up in a similar way? Or is there something else going on?

I'm planning on leasing-to-buy a 2016 M3 next year, hopefully ordering march-april, Euro deliver in May, and having the vehicle arrive at my dealership around when my current lease ends on June 30, 2016. Hopefully, everyone will be talking about the 2017s then and residuals on the 2016s will be nice and high. For those of you who are knowledgable let me know if there is some sort of a problem with that plan! (i.e. It will be too late to order a 2016).

In California, with excellent credit it makes a lot of sense to lease to buy because you defer taxes. I'm expecting to buy this car at the end but having the option is nice...who knows maybe in 3 years I'll be ready to go electric

If I hadn't put money down and MSDs on my current lease I'd try to get out of it but perhaps this is a sign I should spend the next year getting finances in order and making sure I can actually afford this

[Future] Build:
SS or MG Metallic
Stock 18s
Manual
Carbon fiber all over
Exec w/ black extended
Adaptive Suspension
HK

Hoping for some more paint color choices.
Won't you be paying taxes anyways when you buy the car after 3 years? Not sure how much deferring it for 3 years helps?
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      04-17-2015, 08:12 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsm918 View Post
US Invoice = $66,745

ED Invoice = $62,800
Thank you! ED invoice is about 10k less than US MSRP... and difference between US invoices and ED is about 4k... Considering that with the US delivery I can get a lower money factor, and some incentives from work and UDE, it seems that I'd be able to get about the same monthly lease payment for US and ED, minus European trip expenses for US.
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      04-18-2015, 12:12 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexDD View Post
Thank you! ED invoice is about 10k less than US MSRP... and difference between US invoices and ED is about 4k... Considering that with the US delivery I can get a lower money factor, and some incentives from work and UDE, it seems that I'd be able to get about the same monthly lease payment for US and ED, minus European trip expenses for US.
Keep in mind bmw pays the second lease payment with ED, so that offsets a big chunk of the higher money factor. And if you make the European trip into a trip you'd actually want to take anyway, it isn't actually part of car expenses
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      04-18-2015, 12:13 AM   #39
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Won't you be paying taxes anyways when you buy the car after 3 years? Not sure how much deferring it for 3 years helps?
Won't finance the taxes...its marginal at best. But it gives me the option to return the car if I change my mind
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      04-18-2015, 04:11 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Right, and I would expect significantly less. When the M3/M4 came out in March 2014 for orders, the rates were:

MF. .0013
15k 55%
12k 57%
10k 58%

So I would assume 58% and be pleasantly surprised if it's higher. The current 65% (36/10kyr) rate is among the highest BMW has ever offered for a 36 month lease for any of their models. It isn't going to last, and I expect that (partly) the reason is that this LCI refresh for the M3 will be more than just some LED taillights. The 2016 M3's model code is 8M93, while the current one is 3C93. That means it will be a significant change. At 65%/71% (36/24 month), BMW doesn't want many 2015's left on the lot when the 2016's come out.
I have been told by my dealer that a 2016 m4 will cost me hundreds more per month than a 2015... And that they expect the residuals to be at 55-57% ...Now they are trying to convince me to talk a 2015 they have sitting on their floor ...but I guess we will see...they also said that they will not have pricing until July....is that right?
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      04-18-2015, 10:15 AM   #41
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I have been told by my dealer that a 2016 m4 will cost me hundreds more per month than a 2015... And that they expect the residuals to be at 55-57% ...Now they are trying to convince me to talk a 2015 they have sitting on their floor ...but I guess we will see...they also said that they will not have pricing until July....is that right?

This is where the Leasematic app comes in handy, because you can just change the residual % and see the results. The first part your dealer said (assuming you are leasing) is generally true. If the residual drops from 65% to 58%, for example, depending on options, MF, etc., that could result in a $200-$250 /mo higher payment, or $6000-8000 more over 36 months.

Waiting for a 2016 needs to be worth it to you. Assuming we see a 6% or more drop in residual value, you're going to pay thousands more leasing a 2016 vs. finding a 2015 on the lot now.

Pricing for 2016's will likely be out well before July. I would expect end of May, given that's been BMW's timeline in the past (2015 pricing for the 3 series was released May 27th of last year).

Last edited by TonySCV; 04-18-2015 at 10:44 AM..
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      04-19-2015, 01:02 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsm918 View Post
US Invoice = $66,745

ED Invoice = $62,800
dsm918, thanks again for your responses. Reading other threads about ED and deals, I've noticed that there is a chance of getting a deal with $500-$1500 over the ED invoice, which fits my budget. I think I will wait until next year, and put in my order around Feb-Mar, so I can enjoy my ED experience in late spring. Hope residuals won't drop significantly until then. BTW - out of curiosity, what is the best month in regards to getting a good deal on a lease?
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      04-19-2015, 01:13 PM   #43
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I don't know, my optimistic side thinks (hopes) BMW keeps the residuals high (>60%). They're selling a crap load of f8xs with a good amount of individual orders. Maybe they'll see this trend and continue.. Wishful thinking of course.
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      04-19-2015, 03:59 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexDD View Post
dsm918, thanks again for your responses. Reading other threads about ED and deals, I've noticed that there is a chance of getting a deal with $500-$1500 over the ED invoice, which fits my budget. I think I will wait until next year, and put in my order around Feb-Mar, so I can enjoy my ED experience in late spring. Hope residuals won't drop significantly until then. BTW - out of curiosity, what is the best month in regards to getting a good deal on a lease?
No problem. I have never leased a car so really can't comment on that. However, looking at the lease rates now, they are best they have ever been so I would say March/April next year? Also, there are some Holiday incentives to be had in December.
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