SSOTT

[Lups]

Originally Posted by F83

"Nobody knew global international trade was so complicated"

I'm calling it now. That's a future-quote you can take to the bank.

I'd say the tweet about winning trade wars being easy has to be an other winner too.

The world as we know it is coming to an abrupt end, and nukes ain't even in the air yet!

[Kidscollege$]

Tariffs...what we needed a long time ago. Can't wait to see how the Unions are going to oppose him on this even though it is a great benefit to them.

[Lups]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

Tariffs...what we needed a long time ago. Can't wait to see how the Unions are going to oppose him on this even though it is a great benefit to them.

You do realize you all will pay for them and the now published will protect like 200k jobs, benefitting only the companies?

[Kidscollege$]

Originally Posted by Lups

You do realize you all will pay for them and the now published will protect like 200k jobs, benefitting only the companies?

But now those companies will move over here and invest over here and make more jobs over here and keep our existing jobs. Just like he did in the wind and solar sector...

[Lups]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

But now those companies will move over here and invest over here and make more jobs over here and keep our existing jobs. Just like he did in the wind and solar sector...

Solar moved to the USA and nobody told me?! Damn!

You don't have the workforce, and even if you did you're imposing tariffs on your long time allies. Manufacturing industries such as car industry will be in deep shit and china is not going to suffer one bit.

[Kidscollege$]

Originally Posted by Lups

Solar moved to the USA and nobody told me?! Damn!

You don't have the workforce, and even if you did you're imposing tariffs on your long time allies. Manufacturing industries such as car industry will be in deep shit and china is not going to suffer one bit.

Yes, solar moved here, just ask Harry Reid...he set his son up nicely...

We have millions still out of work, once these people realize they gonna have to work to Keep their cell phone, they will work.

[F83]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

Tariffs...what we needed a long time ago. Can't wait to see how the Unions are going to oppose him on this even though it is a great benefit to them.

Sorry you feel that way because it won't help the economy. That's why the stock market is reacting the way it is. This could play out a number of different ways;

At best - it simply raises the price of anything that uses steel. So you end up with a benefit for a very narrow slice of the economy (steel & aluminum producers), at the expense of higher prices paid by everybody for anything that uses steel and aluminum (cars, washing machines, beer, construction materials, etc, etc). This puts more inflationary pressure into an economy that is already at risk for inflation - which will drive the Fed to put interest rates up even higher. This means that everyone ALSO now pays more for car loans, mortgages, etc. Because interest rates and mortgage rates go higher, that also puts DOWNWARD pressure on house prices - so folks can expect an asset price hit as well.

Finally - it makes American manufacturing fundamentally less competitive (which is why the unions will be against it). If you are making something with steel or aluminum in the US and you are hoping to sell it internationally - well guess what? You are now competing not only against lower cost manufacturing - but you're also now competing against lower cost steel and aluminum - because all other parts of the world will continue buying steel and aluminum at the global market price. So US Manufacturing ends up losing share of the global market because it UNIQUELY IN THE WORLD now has to pay more for steel and aluminum vs anybody else.

That's the best case scenario. And BTW - Steel and Aluminum processing is heavily automated these days so who benefits from this? Hundreds of thousands of workers? Nope. The owners of steel plants mostly.

The WORST case scenario means all of the above PLUS there is a trade war. So China decides they don't want US Soybeans anymore (for example). Or to take my company's example (we export US made electronics into China) - if they impose a tariff on those sorts of products, then we can't sell much to China anymore and US workers lose their job on that front as well.

This is 60s style "tried and failed" left leaning policies.

[F83]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

But now those companies will move over here and invest over here and make more jobs over here and keep our existing jobs. Just like he did in the wind and solar sector...

The reason that is a fantasy is because not 100% of the end consumer consumption of steel and aluminum is based on the US. Markets consume this stuff all over the world now.

So if you are a manufacturer of products that sells a global product containing large amounts of steel and aluminum - you are less likely now to base your operation in the US because doing so means you will pay higher prices for those raw materials than anywhere else in the world.

This isn't academic - I will give you a specific example;

The other day I met with a small US based manufacturer of electrical transformers. He sells mid sized transformers (up to about 50 mva) for Industrial and Utility customers. He sells them all over the world.

Increasingly he is getting lots of competition from China and India. About 30% of what he sells right now he sells into the US. 70% is sold elsewhere in the world. He feels pretty good about his ability to compete in the US because he is pretty dialed in to the specific needs of utilities here. But he is under more and more attack on the 70% of his business that ships outside of the US.

Steel and Aluminum are both MAJOR components of transformers (in the case of aluminum - some of them are made with copper windings, some with aluminum).

So what does that mean? It means that the prices for his raw materials just went up. A LOT. Now that probably doesn't impact his US business - because in all likelihood they will also slap tariffs on imported transformers because of the steel and aluminum content. So for the US part of his business, it's probably a wash (other than every utility in the US will now pay more for transformers - so wait for electricity prices to go up). That's not a possibility - it's a "take it to the bank that's what's going to happen - you - you personally @[Kidscollege$] are about to pay more for electricity as a result of this.

But that's not even the bigger problem.

The bigger problem is for the 70% of his business that is OUTSIDE of the US. Now he's competing against a whole bunch of Chinese, Indian and European transformer manufacturers who are NOT paying more for steel and aluminum.

What does that mean? It means he's fucked. The business is already low margin and he's not going to win a utility bid in Norway if his price is 40% higher than everybody else. But if his profit margin is only about 3% - he sure as hell can't match the price so....

That means that every time some shit like this gets pulled - US Manufacturing takes a hit and many go out of business. Sadly - it will happen again.

SMH

[Kidscollege$]

Originally Posted by F83

Sorry you feel that way because it won't help the economy. That's why the stock market is reacting the way it is. This could play out a number of different ways;

At best - it simply raises the price of anything that uses steel. So you end up with a benefit for a very narrow slice of the economy (steel & aluminum producers), at the expense of higher prices paid by everybody for anything that uses steel and aluminum (cars, washing machines, beer, construction materials, etc, etc). This puts more inflationary pressure into an economy that is already at risk for inflation - which will drive the Fed to put interest rates up even higher. This means that everyone ALSO now pays more for car loans, mortgages, etc. Because interest rates and mortgage rates go higher, that also puts DOWNWARD pressure on house prices - so folks can expect an asset price hit as well.

Finally - it makes American manufacturing fundamentally less competitive (which is why the unions will be against it). If you are making something with steel or aluminum in the US and you are hoping to sell it internationally - well guess what? You are now competing not only against lower cost manufacturing - but you're also now competing against lower cost steel and aluminum - because all other parts of the world will continue buying steel and aluminum at the global market price. So US Manufacturing ends up losing share of the global market because it UNIQUELY IN THE WORLD now has to pay more for steel and aluminum vs anybody else.

That's the best case scenario. And BTW - Steel and Aluminum processing is heavily automated these days so who benefits from this? Hundreds of thousands of workers? Nope. The owners of steel plants mostly.

The WORST case scenario means all of the above PLUS there is a trade war. So China decides they don't want US Soybeans anymore (for example). Or to take my company's example (we export US made electronics into China) - if they impose a tariff on those sorts of products, then we can't sell much to China anymore and US workers lose their job on that front as well.

This is 60s style "tried and failed" left leaning policies.

Well, maybe its time that we were able to level the playing field on products? other countries can produce VCR's, DVD's, fidget spinners, widgets what have you for a fraction of the cost due to cheap labor. By imposing tariffs on the goods that are produced with cheap labor, we level the playing field over here to account for our higher labor rates.

China already imposes tariffs on USA for motorcycles and movies/videos (30%). What is China going to do? Impose more on us? so that we cant pay back our debt to them? I dont really know the answer, but I would want a client that can pay their debt back.

The mining of steel, aluminum still has to occur. Yes, the mills are pretty automated.

[Kidscollege$]

Originally Posted by F83

So what does that mean? It means that the prices for his raw materials just went up. A LOT. Now that probably doesn't impact his US business - because in all likelihood they will also slap tariffs on imported transformers because of the steel and aluminum content. So for the US part of his business, it's probably a wash (other than every utility in the US will now pay more for transformers - so wait for electricity prices to go up). That's not a possibility - it's a "take it to the bank that's what's going to happen - you - you personally @[Kidscollege$] are about to pay more for electricity as a result of this.

His raw cost went up if he was buying foriegn steel and aluminum...Not if he was buying US made material. Unless the foreign material was 30% cheaper for his manufacturing and if that is the case, you can see why cheap labor kills the american manufacturing.

What I find funny about all this is the Unions always say "buy american", but now they are not? They have always said, "I will spend more to keep it in America". But now they wont?

[F83]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

His raw cost went up if he was buying foriegn steel and aluminum...Not if he was buying US made material. Unless the foreign material was 30% cheaper for his manufacturing and if that is the case, you can see why cheap labor kills the american manufacturing.

What I find funny about all this is the Unions always say "buy american", but now they are not? They have always said, "I will spend more to keep it in America". But now they wont?

Steel and Aluminum are not products like iPhones or Automobiles. They are commodities like barrels of oil that trade on global commodity markets. Which means that everybody that participates in the global market pays a similar price depending on how they negotiate their contracts and the grade of the product. (Variables include; minimum purchase agreements, fixed vs floating contracts, grade of the product itself, etc). So the individual contracts will vary according to all those dimensions but they are all anchored in the global commodity prices. Yes of course there are specialty products - but I'm talking about the generic products that make up the bulk of the industry (ie: specific gauge and quality of cold rolled steel).

But when you create an artificial market on a global commodity by putting in place tariffs - that insulated market will now pay a higher price.

Oh wait a minute - do you think the US manufacturers out of the goodness of their heart will continue selling at the global commodity price in the US once their market is protected?

Aren't you precious.

But anyway, even if the way you are outlining was how it worked (it isn't) there's still a flaw in your reasoning - and here it is;

The fundamental mistake people are making when they get protectionist in any market - and in particular in the US - is that they believe that the domestic market is the only important market.

The US is the fourth largest producer of steel in the world - producing 6% of the world's total per year (about 80 million tons/year). China is the largest and produces about 50%.

On the consumption side, 8.7% of the world's steel production goes into the NAFTA countries - US, Canada and Mexico. The estimate is that this is about 7% is into the US proper. 45% of the world's steel goes into China. 18% goes into the rest of Asia. That's one of the reasons why China steel is so competitive - they are just consuming so damn much of it. You can say it's cheap labor (and at a certain point in the past that was true). But today that's not the case - labor prices in many labor markets in China has exploded in price. The real difference is scale and the fact that these manufacturers have invested massively in their (state of the art) production facilities.

So the US produces 6% of the world's steel today - and consumes a little over 7%. A slight deficit.

Now you're not going to have a perfect trade balance on every item in an economy - but let's say this deficit is cause for concern. It is a modest deficit at best.

There are many ways you can help close this deficit. How you construct government contracts is one of the best ways - as things relating to government procurement drive a great deal of steel consumption. A few simple tactics like this could almost certainly close this deficit - and would not have negative impacts.

But by making the US an artificial market for steel by launching tariffs - you end up with all the problems I just described.

[Lups]

Originally Posted by F83

Steel and Aluminum are not products like iPhones or Automobiles. They are commodities like barrels of oil that trade on global commodity markets. Which means that everybody that participates in the global market pays a similar price depending on how they negotiate their contracts and the grade of the product. (Variables include; minimum purchase agreements, fixed vs floating contracts, grade of the product itself, etc). So the individual contracts will vary according to all those dimensions but they are all anchored in the global commodity prices. Yes of course there are specialty products - but I'm talking about the generic products that make up the bulk of the industry (ie: specific gauge and quality of cold rolled steel).

But when you create an artificial market on a global commodity by putting in place tariffs - that insulated market will now pay a higher price.

Oh wait a minute - do you think the US manufacturers out of the goodness of their heart will continue selling at the global commodity price in the US once their market is protected?

Aren't you precious.

But anyway, even if the way you are outlining was how it worked (it isn't) there's still a flaw in your reasoning - and here it is;

The fundamental mistake people are making when they get protectionist in any market - and in particular in the US - is that they believe that the domestic market is the only important market.

The US is the fourth largest producer of steel in the world - producing 6% of the world's total per year (about 80 million tons/year). China is the largest and produces about 50%.

On the consumption side, 8.7% of the world's steel production goes into the NAFTA countries - US, Canada and Mexico. The estimate is that this is about 7% is into the US proper.

So the US produces 6% of the world's steel today - and consumes a little over 7%. A slight deficit.

Now you're not going to have a perfect trade balance on every item in an economy - but let's say this deficit is cause for concern. It is a modest deficit at best.

There are many ways you can help close this deficit. How you construct government contracts is one of the best ways - as things relating to government procurement drive a great deal of steel consumption. A few simple tactics like this could almost certainly close this deficit - and would not have negative impacts.

But by making the US an artificial market for steel by launching tariffs - you end up with all the problems I just described.

This wa very well said, and this is the hottest argument we've had in the ssott since the softwood lumber.

[Kidscollege$]

Originally Posted by F83

Steel and Aluminum are not products like iPhones or Automobiles. They are commodities like barrels of oil that trade on global commodity markets. Which means that everybody that participates in the global market pays a similar price depending on how they negotiate their contracts and the grade of the product. (Variables include; minimum purchase agreements, fixed vs floating contracts, grade of the product itself, etc). So the individual contracts will vary according to all those dimensions but they are all anchored in the global commodity prices.

But when you create an artificial market on a global commodity by putting in place tariffs - that insulated market will now pay a higher price.

Oh wait a minute - do you think the US manufacturers out of the goodness of their heart will continue selling at the global commodity price in the US once their market is protected?

Aren't you precious.

As a matter of fact I am precious...

I deal with large steel products (steel beams, reinforcing steel etc). Yes, contractors can buy foreign steel cheaper than US steel (foreign steel is also substandard in my opinion FYI). This is also why on Federal highway projects we have the "Buy American Act". It forces all steel used on projects to be of US origin. They had to do this as the foreign steel was destroying our steel industry. The Chinese were buying all of our scrap 10 yrs ago and taking it home, recycling and sending it back as VCR's, washing machines and Fart Can mufflers...all cheaper than we were producing here. The fact that they can manufacture steel overseas, ship it over here and sell it cheaper should tell you something. VS manufacturing here and distributing here in the states. It is cheaper and they are putting a tariff on the goods to equal them to the US playing field.

[Kidscollege$]

Originally Posted by Lups

This wa very well said, and this is the hottest argument we've had in the ssott since the softwood lumber.

Softwood...isn't that an oxymoron?

No discussion yet on morning wood yet though..

[Lups]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

Softwood...isn't that an oxymoron?

No discussion yet on morning wood yet though..

Dude we're all so old here we don't even remember the morning lumber!

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Kidscollege$

Tariffs...what we needed a long time ago. Can't wait to see how the Unions are going to oppose him on this even though it is a great benefit to them.

Thought of the day: My company employs more US citizens than work in the entire US steel industry.

The tariffs are a great idea if it's 1955.

In 2018 these tariffs will economically crush US consumers and there's literally no disagreement about that with any business expert, including Trump's own cabinet.

EDIT: I'll add that one of the key principles of global trade is national security: countries that free trade are full of people that lose in a war and thus free trade prevents war. Tariffs ignore that reality.

[Lups]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Thought of the day: My company employs more US citizens than work in the entire US steel industry.

The tariffs are a great idea if it's 1955.

In 2018 these tariffs will economically crush US consumers and there's literally no disagreement about that with any business expert, including Trump's own cabinet.

EDIT: I'll add that one of the key principles of global trade is national security: countries that free trade are full of people that lose in a war and thus free trade prevents war. Tariffs ignore that reality.

Yup, but apparently none of this what you've listed matter anymore.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Lups

Dude we're all so old here we don't even remember the morning lumber!

Hey speak for yourself! Sometimes I have to pee so bad it is like morning wood.

[Lups]

Originally Posted by minn19

Hey speak for yourself! Sometimes I have to pee so bad it is like morning wood.

We sure are the coolest gang in central America!



https://finance.google.com/finance?q...EIuLswGEtaCQBg

I keep hitting refresh to see where this will end. I don't have a good feeling about the next few weeks.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Lups

We sure are the coolest gang in central America!



https://finance.google.com/finance?q...EIuLswGEtaCQBg

I keep hitting refresh to see where this will end. I don't have a good feeling about the next few weeks.

You said you had to make some quick cash, there has to be some opportunities in this shit show to do that. I wish I was smart enough to know how.

[Lups]

Originally Posted by minn19

You said you had to make some quick cash, there has to be some opportunities in this shit show to do that. I wish I was smart enough to know how.

Well, I'll give you some tips.

Be like Carl Icahn.

End of tips. Apparently the guy dumped all steel stocks he had last week.

Fuck my life, even that doesn't make top 50 need of the week.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Lups

Yup, but apparently none of this what you've listed matter anymore.

Funny thing is, you know that corporate mummy that's been comatose for 90% of his public service? You know, this guy:



Well, turns out he's not the sharpest knife on the tree, because he went on CNBC and tried to make a "it's not that bad argument" (or he was asking how to get the soup out)



basically wilbur claimed the tariff would "only add $175 to the average new car price" ... forgetting of course that's a new $3B / year tax on consumers just for cars alone! Add in the price increase of every other product and it'll be $50-$150B in new consumer taxes.

Poor Wilbur.