SSOTT

[Captain Blood]

Anybody voting on here today?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Captain Blood

Anybody voting on here today?

We voted sunday for Biden (California).

Soooo ... anybody else terrified that the fed does an emergency rate cut and the make drops 300 points?

[minn19]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

We voted sunday for Biden (California).

Soooo ... anybody else terrified that the fed does an emergency rate cut and the make drops 300 points?

Monetary/materialistic issues aren't my biggest concern right now.

Plus you need to post every few minutes to keep up with the swings. I thought I saw a drop as much as 700.

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by minn19

Monetary/materialistic issues aren't my biggest concern right now.

Plus you need to post every few minutes to keep up with the swings. I thought I saw a drop as much as 700.

I'm in the same boat.

I'm not confident regarding the government as a whole. There isn't really anyone Republican or Democrat that can make me think otherwise at the moment. Both parties are too busy trying to outdo each other in the "We are dumber" department than anything else.

And big BTW, Trump is by far the biggest showcase of how bad the American Educational System is.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by minn19

Monetary/materialistic issues aren't my biggest concern right now.

That wasn't a "monetary / materialistic" point - it's a oh-fuck-it's-a-canary point - here's why:

Yesterday and overnight the markets were operating completely normally with plenty of liquidity - in other words, there was absolutely no market reason for a rate cut, yet the Fed rolled out an "emergency" cut (note, first since the Great Recession!):



Ignoring the issue of Trump tweeting about about the cut in advance, a non-emergency emergency means either the Fed is seeing incredibly scary numbers they're not sharing or they're acting incredibly stupidly (like following political direction rather than data).

Both of those scenarios are pretty scary and why the market has deflated despite the incredibly inflationary move.

Net-net: Something in our government just got very scary or very broken and the market reacted appropriately. (Note the 10y bond set a record low yield, meaning investors are fleeing to safety - not a good sign for what's to come, and I'm not talking about money although that too)

[GrussGott]

Wow, big night for Biden - who woulda guessed?

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Wow, big night for Biden - who woulda guessed?

I would not have guessed but Im pretty happy about it. Im all in on Joe at this point. Now Bloomberg has dropped out and endorsed him. Maybe enough momentum here to get him the nod.

[dmk08]

BTW minn19 I was inspired by the “how to pretend you're rich and that you care about the environment” video floating around youtube and bought a 16 Tesla S instead of a Mustang.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Wow, big night for Biden - who woulda guessed?

Originally Posted by dmk08

I would not have guessed but Im pretty happy about it. Im all in on Joe at this point. Now Bloomberg has dropped out and endorsed him. Maybe enough momentum here to get him the nod.

Not a huge Biden guy, but he does have a much better chance at beating Trump, so yah......

Originally Posted by dmk08

BTW minn19 I was inspired by the “how to pretend you're rich and that you care about the environment” video floating around youtube and bought a 16 Tesla S instead of a Mustang.

Congrats, probably faster/more consistent in a straight line than a supercharged 'Stang anyway. Obviously much more comfortable and usable DD etc also.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by dmk08

BTW minn19 I was inspired by the “how to pretend you're rich and that you care about the environment” video floating around youtube and bought a 16 Tesla S instead of a Mustang.

Nice! Give us the review!

[GrussGott]

So Bern'd!

[GrussGott]

If any of you are veterans of The Struggle (nighttime temperature wars with your spouse), I can recommend the Chilipad, although it's my first day. You can get them on Amazon for about 30% cheaper than the site.

It really works! and it's got a sweet RF remote so it can be totally out of sight - the only downside I'd say could be condensation if you don't humidity control your room. Other than that, so far, i'm impressed!

[Arcades]

Would Biden really beat Trump?

I thought a moderate Democrat is probably the last thing most would want or is US so messed up right now, people are brain dead?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Arcades

Would Biden really beat Trump?

I thought a moderate Democrat is probably the last thing most would want or is US so messed up right now, people are brain dead?

It's more/less a math problem vs a "lane" problem:

* the bulk of democratic voters are younger, blue collar, and of color (repub is opposite)

* to win, either party must get turn out - whichever side is more motivated wins

In the case of the Dem primary, to win, one candidate needed african-americans, suburban (esp women), and older voters - Biden got exactly that and younger voters didn't turn out for Bernie. To win the general, it's more/less the same for a Dem candidate: african-american voters, suburban (esp women), older given they have the coastal cities.

Biden just proved that not only does he have those demos, but he increased turnout in them, exactly what's needed to win the general. The markets also bounced because Biden doesn't scare banks, business or Wall Street (as Bernie & Warren do).

For Bernie to win the general, given he'd lose what Biden won, he has to turn out new voters, especially youth voters - that's been his thesis, and last night his thesis was disproven as the youth stayed home and the terrified GenXers and suburban women turned out.

So, yeah, if Biden has the same night during the general as he had last night, it's a Biden landslide win.

[UncleWede]

It's bittersweet that I am turning in the 5.0 vert stang tomorrow. In just a week SO MANY near misses with 5-0. That whole gas thing too

Grott, have you seen those fans that sit at the base of the bed? Variable speed control, under the covers so the partner who can't sleep if a butterfly flaps its wings near my face can still get some shut-eye

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

It's more/less a math problem vs a "lane" problem:

* the bulk of democratic voters are younger, blue collar, and of color (repub is opposite)

* to win, either party must get turn out - whichever side is more motivated wins

In the case of the Dem primary, to win, one candidate needed african-americans, suburban (esp women), and older voters - Biden got exactly that and younger voters didn't turn out for Bernie. To win the general, it's more/less the same for a Dem candidate: african-american voters, suburban (esp women), older given they have the coastal cities.

Biden just proved that not only does he have those demos, but he increased turnout in them, exactly what's needed to win the general. The markets also bounced because Biden doesn't scare banks, business or Wall Street (as Bernie & Warren do).

For Bernie to win the general, given he'd lose what Biden won, he has to turn out new voters, especially youth voters - that's been his thesis, and last night his thesis was disproven as the youth stayed home and the terrified GenXers and suburban women turned out.

So, yeah, if Biden has the same night during the general as he had last night, it's a Biden landslide win.

My concern with Biden is mainly the same I have with Trump. While... Biden is far more competent, he still has that habit of spewing random stuff Trump does.

It already seems Republicans are trying to shove a foot in the door of Biden just to show they will make his life hard because Republicans are all about being "Against the Machine!" sort to say (even though they are the main cause of problems currently).

I'm also not overly fond of the news constantly covering how Wall Street seems more easy with Biden then Sanders.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

It's more/less a math problem vs a "lane" problem:

* the bulk of democratic voters are younger, blue collar, and of color (repub is opposite)

* to win, either party must get turn out - whichever side is more motivated wins

In the case of the Dem primary, to win, one candidate needed african-americans, suburban (esp women), and older voters - Biden got exactly that and younger voters didn't turn out for Bernie. To win the general, it's more/less the same for a Dem candidate: african-american voters, suburban (esp women), older given they have the coastal cities.

Biden just proved that not only does he have those demos, but he increased turnout in them, exactly what's needed to win the general. The markets also bounced because Biden doesn't scare banks, business or Wall Street (as Bernie & Warren do).

For Bernie to win the general, given he'd lose what Biden won, he has to turn out new voters, especially youth voters - that's been his thesis, and last night his thesis was disproven as the youth stayed home and the terrified GenXers and suburban women turned out.

So, yeah, if Biden has the same night during the general as he had last night, it's a Biden landslide win.

The young voters: "but I'm in a game.

I'll vote later......".

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Arcades

My concern with Biden is mainly the same I have with Trump. While... Biden is far more competent, he still has that habit of spewing random stuff Trump does.

It already seems Republicans are trying to shove a foot in the door of Biden just to show they will make his life hard because Republicans are all about being "Against the Machine!" sort to say (even though they are the main cause of problems currently).

I'm also not overly fond of the news constantly covering how Wall Street seems more easy with Biden then Sanders.

Well said, Biden is a major piece of shit as well, just a more competent one, which is something I guess. But, if he wins it’ll be four more years of weird ass shit coming out of the WH, just different weird from Biden (if he wins).

I agree as well, I’m tired of the “what is better for Wall Street” crap. Them assholes nearly destroyed the worlds financial system a little over ten years ago and are poised to do it for real this time with Trump at the helm.

The Dems had a real chance to get some fresh blood/fresh ideas and here we are stuck with a choice of two old as hell, weird white boomers again.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by minn19

The Dems had a real chance to get some fresh blood/fresh ideas and here we are stuck with a choice of two old as hell, weird white boomers again.

I'm FAR less pessimistic than you guys - I'm basing that on Biden's team and his remarks about Pete, Amy, and Beto: unless he's lying, he's clearly planning on building an administration with the next generation of democrats:

"I just can’t tell you how much I appreciate it, because I promise you, you’re gonna end up over your lifetime seeing a hell of a lot more of Pete than you are of me."
"Democrats need a candidate who can assemble the largest, most diverse coalition possible"

And the Biden campaign started selling this t-shirt:
In short, Biden's actions tell me he's thinking of this election as more of a caretaker role, bringing in a team of young democrats to do the leading - if he wins, I wouldn't be surprised to see him not run for a second term if there's a path for his Veep or other ...

Further, Biden's politics have significantly evolved and, despite that fact people keep calling him a moderate, none of his campaign policy positions are moderate (for better or worse):

EXAMPLE #1: Health Care
This is complicated because most people don't understand how health insurance and Medicare work ... the TLDR is Biden wants a huge expansion of the ACA which is more/less a universal coverage public option.

The slightly longer answer is:

* Today Medicare Parts A, B, D (doc visits, hospital stays, drugs) kinda suck: limited coverage, coverage time limits (e.g., 6 weeks then you're booted), no vision, dental or annual exam, etc. To cover those gaps, you can buy various "medicare supplemental" insurance plans (and/or state medicaid plans can help like they did my grandma in MN)

* Or - you can go Medicare Part C, aka "Medicare Advantage" which is *private insurance*. Essentially the Feds "sell" your medical risk to a private insurance company, paying the private insurance company what they would guess you'd cost to cover every year. To figure out this gov't-to-private payment, the government bases it on how healthy/ill the member is and "risk adjusts" the payment to the private insurer (healthier=$, sicker=$$$). Part C, btw, is exploding in popularity covering about 30M people ...

So who gives a fuck?
Well the ACA right now is risk adjusted too (different formula because people are younger).

What's that mean?
That ACA healthcare coverage is a government/private partnership exactly like Medicare part C!

Why's that matter?
Because Bernie's "Medicare for All" is NOT a partnership, it's much more like Medicare parts A & B (which Bernie wisely doesn't use!!) with unlimited coverage which makes it so expensive that 43 cents of every dollar in the US economy would flow through the US government which is more than at the height of WW2! In short, it's virtually impossible. More importantly, Bernie is completely inflexible on it - Even AOC has said she'd support a public-option compromise, but Bernie said M4A is already the compromise.

Joe Biden's plan, while still raising taxes, would simply be an expansion of the existing Medicaid, ACA, Medicare Part C infrastructure already in place - in short extremely doable and even desirable by the existing healthcare stakeholders.

EXAMPLE #2: Fiscal Policy
Biden tax policy is to both increase taxes and shift the burden of the increase to upper incomes:


Anyway, my point is, all of the evidence indicates Joe Biden is building a team of next-gen superstars to push *THEIR* progressive policy agenda - which is far from past moderate Joe.

While I may not like some of those policies, any of them are better for my economic future (and life) than Trump as I believe he's destroying the US's economic future, exchanging short-term emotional wins at the huge price of long-term expansion.

[GrussGott]

And furthermore, as someone who worked for 15 years to prevent and treat disease, Ax:

[Arcades]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I'm FAR less pessimistic than you guys - I'm basing that on Biden's team and his remarks about Pete, Amy, and Beto: unless he's lying, he's clearly planning on building an administration with the next generation of democrats:

"I just can’t tell you how much I appreciate it, because I promise you, you’re gonna end up over your lifetime seeing a hell of a lot more of Pete than you are of me."
"Democrats need a candidate who can assemble the largest, most diverse coalition possible"

And the Biden campaign started selling this t-shirt:
In short, Biden's actions tell me he's thinking of this election as more of a caretaker role, bringing in a team of young democrats to do the leading - if he wins, I wouldn't be surprised to see him not run for a second term if there's a path for his Veep or other ...

Further, Biden's politics have significantly evolved and, despite that fact people keep calling him a moderate, none of his campaign policy positions are moderate (for better or worse):

EXAMPLE #1: Health Care
This is complicated because most people don't understand how health insurance and Medicare work ... the TLDR is Biden wants a huge expansion of the ACA which is more/less a universal coverage public option.

The slightly longer answer is:

* Today Medicare Parts A, B, D (doc visits, hospital stays, drugs) kinda suck: limited coverage, coverage time limits (e.g., 6 weeks then you're booted), no vision, dental or annual exam, etc. To cover those gaps, you can buy various "medicare supplemental" insurance plans (and/or state medicaid plans can help like they did my grandma in MN)

* Or - you can go Medicare Part C, aka "Medicare Advantage" which is *private insurance*. Essentially the Feds "sell" your medical risk to a private insurance company, paying the private insurance company what they would guess you'd cost to cover every year. To figure out this gov't-to-private payment, the government bases it on how healthy/ill the member is and "risk adjusts" the payment to the private insurer (healthier=$, sicker=$$$). Part C, btw, is exploding in popularity covering about 30M people ...

So who gives a fuck?
Well the ACA right now is risk adjusted too (different formula because people are younger).

What's that mean?
That ACA healthcare coverage is a government/private partnership exactly like Medicare part C!

Why's that matter?
Because Bernie's "Medicare for All" is NOT a partnership, it's much more like Medicare parts A & B (which Bernie wisely doesn't use!!) with unlimited coverage which makes it so expensive that 43 cents of every dollar in the US economy would flow through the US government which is more than at the height of WW2! In short, it's virtually impossible. More importantly, Bernie is completely inflexible on it - Even AOC has said she'd support a public-option compromise, but Bernie said M4A is already the compromise.

Joe Biden's plan, while still raising taxes, would simply be an expansion of the existing Medicaid, ACA, Medicare Part C infrastructure already in place - in short extremely doable and even desirable by the existing healthcare stakeholders.

EXAMPLE #2: Fiscal Policy
Biden tax policy is to both increase taxes and shift the burden of the increase to upper incomes:


Anyway, my point is, all of the evidence indicates Joe Biden is building a team of next-gen superstars to push *THEIR* progressive policy agenda - which is far from past moderate Joe.

While I may not like some of those policies, any of them are better for my economic future (and life) than Trump as I believe he's destroying the US's economic future, exchanging short-term emotional wins at the huge price of long-term expansion.

Well I mean... I am pessimistic for a reason lol

[GrussGott]

So this happened today. For reals. Not the onion. this is real.