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      04-01-2020, 07:06 AM   #3609
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Agree with the post above re man made climate change and our belief that we have to help the planet and our staggering arrogance that we can alter the course of the planet.

Mother nature not a cuddly pet to be saved she is a vicious motherfucker as you can see with recent events and im not giving up my heating and cars and flights and meat and alcohol etc to satisfy the idiotic green lobby people.
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      04-01-2020, 10:04 AM   #3610
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Yeah, we have to be thinking that this is going to be a long term recession/depression scenario and if people aren't even able to commute to work, it would really decrease demand for Tesla's (at least here in CA). Everywhere else, I would think people will hold back on big purchases and with gas as cheap as it is, there isn't a lot of incentive to get an EV in this environment.
Long term Tesla has a chance for a strong win at this game: after the pandemic, there will be a real distaste for public transportation, especially larger types like buses and subway trains. People will buy more cars (helps Tesla equally with everyone else), those who can't buy will look for car sharing (the first company to succeed with autonomous driving will own this market), and The Boring Company's tunnels built for small cars will look more appealing to the general public than large subways.

Tesla just needs to ride over the crisis, and the cost of that to the company is the current unknown.
And this is exactly what is happening in Tokyo now.

People that used public transportation day in and day out for decades are now either renewing or obtaining their drivers licenses for the first time ever. Most are taking driving courses and considering the purchase of private automobiles as they now see public transportation as one of the main conduits for viruses and Illness.

It is no secret that car ownership on a metropolis the size of Tokyo is cost prohibitive, but people are now revisiting their whole approach to public transportation and putting up with the sheer expense and perils of private car ownership.

Interesting times.
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      04-01-2020, 10:37 AM   #3611
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Religion has played a huge role in my life. I attended parochial schools my entire adolescent life and currently send my kids to the same type of schools. I think this is a very very interesting idea. The "Religious Left" (RL) appeasing the "climate change Judge" and Climate Change Deniers (CCD) actually have very much in common.

The RL use their "faith" as a coping mechanism for dealing with a difficult issue. ie, if they drive an EV, recycle, reduce their carbon footprint etc then they will appease the climate change Judge and feel like they are saving the world.

The CCD also use their "faith" as a coping mechanism in dealing with a difficult issue. ie we are not capable/smart enough to manipulate climate or there is no such thing as climate change.

So where does this idea come from, that we aren't smart enough to manipulate the climate? Is it humility in the face of a religious God? Is there a study that says we don't know how to change climate? Or, is it that our actions have consequences that might be beyond our complete understanding?
So first off, I'm not confusing weather with climate, so lets get that straight. Fun joke, but stupid.

The climate constantly changes. The solar system constantly changes. The sun constantly changes. Human activity constantly changes. The climate has changed over time and the life form(s) that inhabit the planet have fallen, risen, and disappeared all without their brains deciding they are (were) the major effect on the planet's climate. Yet the change is so incredibly slow, it looks stagnant to most people. Because it looks stagnant, the Religious Warmers (Warmers - I think that's the term used for them) believe the climate should never change; fossil and geological evidence tell us the opposite is true.

Statistically as shown by the fossil record, humans are not always going to inhabit the planet earth. Let me be more precise, homo sapiens statically are not always going to inhabit the earth.

Religious Warmers believe homo sapiens do know how to change the climate. Their philosophy is entirely based on "studies" of mostly relative short-term observation (just a bit over 100 years - with their measuring techniques gaining precision all the while). But in parallel they believe we only have thus far, known how to change the climate incorrectly. The Warmers have developed models that fit what they believe. Not one model points to a better climate future. Statistically, in the science of modeling anything, some of the models must be wrong, which is why multiple approaches to modeling something are taken as validation. Further to validate, models are checked against the real world, and that is where the climate models fail.

We homo sapiens are not smart enough to keep the climate static. There are too many other variables (natural force) at play to counteract all of them. Trying control greenhouse gas emissions is not enough. Everyone seems to miss the point that humans exist on the planet because of the greenhouse effect, not in spite of it.
It's more comforting to think we are just being arrogant. That way we don't have to anything and we aren't responsible for our actions. I haven't witnessed this level of unaccountability since kindergarten.
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      04-01-2020, 10:51 AM   #3612
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It's more comforting to think we are just being arrogant. That way we don't have to anything and we aren't responsible for our actions. I haven't witnessed this level of unaccountability since kindergarten.
I wonder when that "OK Boomer" moment will come, when we admit we had the facts in the '70's, or before.
My Gramps worked for Esso from 15 yrs old (1916) to retirement. If I had a dollar for every time he said, "Hey kiddo, turn off the light. You think that grows on trees?", it would probably surpass the amount he left his family in Exxon stock!

Homocentrism is a terrible philosophy.

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      04-01-2020, 12:47 PM   #3613
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Oh, I completely disagree 100% when it comes to trying to engineer the climate. Trying to drastically change the carbon cycle could have consequences that are just as not understood as letting the current emissions profile continue....

This is why the Warmer's goal post always moves. First it was global cooling in the 1970s, then global warming in the late '90s, now it is just under the umbrella of "climate change". In the last two years the narrative moved to "the rate of change is increasing". Last year it was "we only have 12 years until we reach the point of no return!". And then AOC and Greta Thunderberg shit out of someone's ass, and we have to listen to two climate drama queens. The first climate drama queen was Al Gore
I certainly agree with the first part of your post: It is very foolish to put any faith in our ability to engineer a better global climate. Except that, now, the alternative to trying is...?

But the second part is old hat excuse making. Esso knew the dangers of global warming in the '60s. Al Gore was into it by '79.
Science knew way back, even the oil industry knew. Many people were comfortably numb, and most pols totally folded.

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      04-01-2020, 01:21 PM   #3614
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Sorry, but I'm not listening to politicians who fly on private Jets and own oceanside real estate in the very flood plains they are telling us we are going to cause if we don't curb our lifestyles.

Talk about confusing climate with weather. Please. These people are hypocrites.
Of course you shouldn't!
That's why you listen to the science.

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      04-01-2020, 01:50 PM   #3615
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Oh, I completely disagree 100% when it comes to trying to engineer the climate. Trying to drastically change the carbon cycle could have consequences that are just as not understood as letting the current emissions profile continue. Sure, we have models that predict a change for the good, but the result and ultimate validation is thousands of years away. We shouldn't be willing to trust such models.

And talk of no responsibility and unaccountability; all the climate modellers and politicians will be long dead and long forgotten.

If anyone thinks any type of action or inaction towards steering the climate, starting in the year 2020 is going to impact the climate (and weather they experience) in their lifetime or the children's lifetime or grand children's lifetime really doesn't understand earth science. This is why the Warmer's goal post always moves. First it was global cooling in the 1970s, then global warming in the late '90s, now it is just under the umbrella of "climate change". In the last two years the narrative moved to "the rate of change is increasing". Last year it was "we only have 12 years until we reach the point of no return!". And then AOC and Greta Thunderberg shit out of someone's ass, and we have to listen to two climate drama queens. The first climate drama queen was Al Gore, put out of a Government job by Geo. Bush and his brother Jeb. Gore was the queen until it was learned his house uses 10 times the amount of juice the average American does. Then Barrak Obama tried to jump in, but he bought a $14M mansion right on the beach in Martha's Vineyard...
You have this all wrong, Justin Trudeau's "tax on pollution" (carbon tax) will control the climate......
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      04-01-2020, 01:58 PM   #3616
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i want to help climate change everyone else will change their lifestyle and pay for it. Poor folk with old cars will pay a levy to go into cities.
i will cycle at weekends on my $1000 bike and hold up traffic looking smug as fuck while increasing pollution levels and I will lease a £50-109k ev for use on working days and get another ev when my lease ends and still go on holidays but will maintain a holier than thou attitude as no one dare challenge me.
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      04-01-2020, 02:03 PM   #3617
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Yes. I learned the science about the Earth's climate when the internet was DARPAs wet dream and astronomy and geology weren't politicized.
Were you protesting energy use, etc., way back then?

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      04-01-2020, 02:12 PM   #3618
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No. But I was using an electric tractor to cut our lawn.
Way back in '74, our first real gas crisis, I bought my first BMW 2002. My best friend nabe, who was into large Chevys, asked me why I bought a little furin' car!

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      04-01-2020, 02:35 PM   #3619
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
i want to help climate change everyone else will change their lifestyle and pay for it. Poor folk with old cars will pay a levy to go into cities.
i will cycle at weekends on my $1000 bike and hold up traffic looking smug as fuck while increasing pollution levels and I will lease a 50-109k ev for use on working days and get another ev when my lease ends and still go on holidays but will maintain a holier than thou attitude as no one dare challenge me.
Yeah, we should all follow your example and feel smug as fuck doing nothing at all.
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      04-01-2020, 03:38 PM   #3620
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Yeah, we should all follow your example and feel smug as fuck doing nothing at all.
In general this is why we need generational change - many people grow up with ideas like earth-just-does-shit-humans-can't-do-a-thing and mentally they're stuck there for life.

For example, you can apply all of the anti-climate-change arguments to home fires:

* What's going to cause my next home fire?? NO way I can know that!
* How do we control all of the home fire causal variables? we can't!
* If lightning is a major cause, we can't control that!
* Fires just happen, controlling the variables is impossible, it's all too expensive. can't!
* Anti-home-fire people are hypocrites because they have homes!

Of course all those arguments are equally ridiculous to climate change as they are to home fires because the costs of being wrong are so high and the costs of being right are so low.

How low are the costs? Check you fire insurance bill and their reinsurance bill. That's how much.
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      04-01-2020, 03:50 PM   #3621
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
i want to help climate change everyone else will change their lifestyle and pay for it. Poor folk with old cars will pay a levy to go into cities.
i will cycle at weekends on my $1000 bike and hold up traffic looking smug as fuck while increasing pollution levels and I will lease a £50-109k ev for use on working days and get another ev when my lease ends and still go on holidays but will maintain a holier than thou attitude as no one dare challenge me.
Yeah, we should all follow your example and feel smug as fuck doing nothing at all.
not donning lycra and not buying and driving an oversized frog spawn doesn't mean im doing nothing at all. Im actively reducing the pain I could inflict on peoples eyes and lives
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      04-01-2020, 04:01 PM   #3622
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Oh, I completely disagree 100% when it comes to trying to engineer the climate. Trying to drastically change the carbon cycle could have consequences that are just as not understood as letting the current emissions profile continue. Sure, we have models that predict a change for the good, but the result and ultimate validation is thousands of years away. We shouldn't be willing to trust such models.

And talk of no responsibility and unaccountability; all the climate modellers and politicians will be long dead and long forgotten.
Even if I were to agree with you 100% and it were all true, this isn't a dichotomy, they can be wrong about the models and CCD's can also be wrong in dismissing accountability. You speak as if an opposing argument being wrong automatically makes the other right.

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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
If anyone thinks any type of action or inaction towards steering the climate, starting in the year 2020 is going to impact the climate (and weather they experience) in their lifetime or the children's lifetime or grand children's lifetime really doesn't understand earth science. This is why the Warmer's goal post always moves. First it was global cooling in the 1970s, then global warming in the late '90s, now it is just under the umbrella of "climate change". In the last two years the narrative moved to "the rate of change is increasing". Last year it was "we only have 12 years until we reach the point of no return!". And then AOC and Greta Thunderberg shit out of someone's ass, and we have to listen to two climate drama queens. The first climate drama queen was Al Gore, put out of a Government job by Geo. Bush and his brother Jeb. Gore was the queen until it was learned his house uses 10 times the amount of juice the average American does. Then Barrak Obama tried to jump in, but he bought a $14M mansion right on the beach in Martha's Vineyard...
Why are you lumping opinions about climate change that oppose yours into one category? Have you thought of the possibility that there are more than one opinion and just because one opinion is wrong, doesn't mean they are all wrong? Did you know that the study that suggested a cooling effect was later changed to suggest a warming effect because they realized they underestimated the warming effects of CO2 vs the cooling effects of air pollution? Sound familiar? This actually lines up with the current thoughts on climate change, since our CO2 production and carbon footprint has increased exponentially. If you "understand science" you know that theories aren't facts and can change over time and that this isn't a contradiction from a previous study, but a correlation from an unexpected outcome. That's why we have peer review, repeatability, and duplication. These are the best educated theories about our natural world. IMHO it's a bit more reliable than any argument CCDs have made because so far the most common ones are heavily influenced by politics and religion. In the scientific world, opinions change to reflect gains in understanding and further reviews. Try and change someone's politics and religion, it's like wrestling a gorilla, it becomes personal. Politics and religion are based personal beliefs. Science, on the other hand can change an idea simply because it is designed to be open-minded to new information so as not to stunt progress. Politics and religion, on the other had, have less interest in progress. Why would that make it a worthwhile influence on science? It doesn't, and in fact it's a conflict on interest in most cases.

Do you really think naming those names makes a rational argument? Those are cults of personality, not facts. This is clearly a political/emotional argument.
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      04-01-2020, 04:49 PM   #3623
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
i want to help climate change everyone else will change their lifestyle and pay for it. Poor folk with old cars will pay a levy to go into cities.
i will cycle at weekends on my $1000 bike and hold up traffic looking smug as fuck while increasing pollution levels and I will lease a £50-109k ev for use on working days and get another ev when my lease ends and still go on holidays but will maintain a holier than thou attitude as no one dare challenge me.
There are non-asshole ways of doing it.
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      04-01-2020, 04:58 PM   #3624
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not donning lycra and not buying and driving an oversized frog spawn doesn't mean im doing nothing at all. Im actively reducing the pain I could inflict on peoples eyes and lives
Yeah, so ugly and undrivable.









In the "I don't car what it looks like" aka the "My self worth isn't entirely dependent on what others think of my car" category, my 2 previous i3's:

20170805 - i3 Lower Grand - IMG_1116-Edit_100 by JMG, on Flickr

20190310 - i3 Parking - IMG_1148-Edit_100 by JMG, on Flickr
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      04-01-2020, 05:02 PM   #3625
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Yeah, so ugly and undrivable.









In the "I don't car what it looks like" aka the "My self worth isn't entirely dependent on what others think of my car" category, my 2 previous i3's:

20170805 - i3 Lower Grand - IMG_1116-Edit_100 by JMG, on Flickr

20190310 - i3 Parking - IMG_1148-Edit_100 by JMG, on Flickr
So the sexy good looking drivable cars you posted are completely unaffordable, the affordable ones i3 is so ugly IMHO. There isn't an appealing EV for under $100K.

Here's what you can get for under $100K in ICE, way under for the most part.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-cul...llars/?slide=1
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      04-01-2020, 06:18 PM   #3626
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So the sexy good looking drivable cars you posted are completely unaffordable, the affordable ones i3 is so ugly IMHO. There isn't an appealing EV for under $100K.

Here's what you can get for under $100K in ICE, way under for the most part.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-cul...llars/?slide=1
I wasn't aware that there was a price ceiling on what we can consider beautiful?!

The Honda e is not $100k and we all know style trickles down. The Model 3 is doesn't have a lot of character, but it's definitely not an ugly car and is very appealing. It also outperforms almost all other cars under $100k.

Also, if you have driven an i3, you might find it as appealing as I have. It's got a lot of character and I enjoy it's polarizing styling. I'm actually on my 3rd and it's one of the best cars I've ever owned.

Here are some sub-$100k EVs:







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      04-01-2020, 07:33 PM   #3627
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So the sexy good looking drivable cars you posted are completely unaffordable, the affordable ones i3 is so ugly IMHO.
When toyota, datsun, honda, et al entered into US market it was definitely not with sexy good looking affordable cars ... let's say just affordable with the benefit of an oil crisis. That's not how good product development works ... consider the Fiat 500 launched in 2016 as a cute affordable car; that was its best year, downhill since, and there are many other examples.

In product land, especially with new technology products, the tried and true path to success is:

(1.) You build a premium product for the niche market of "innovators" that can both afford it and are willing to try new stuff (and bear the risks - no pussies allowed).

(2.) Then you expand the niche to "early adopters" with still a niche premium product, but with fewer bugs, has fewer trade-offs, but still a premium product (in Tesla's case, more super chargers around, and a model X with more room for example)

(3.) Now that you've validated your premium product, you pivot to the "early majority", early mainstream buyers less tolerant of tradeoffs and more price sensitive. (for tesla this is the model 3 and model y)

There's some stuff after that, but you get the idea: "affordable" is new-product-success-bane, especially for new tech products; in that world, "premium" is where the profits start.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      04-02-2020, 07:11 AM   #3628
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
When toyota, datsun, honda, et al entered into US market it was definitely not with sexy good looking affordable cars ... let's say just affordable with the benefit of an oil crisis. That's not how good product development works ... consider the Fiat 500 launched in 2016 as a cute affordable car; that was its best year, downhill since, and there are many other examples.

In product land, especially with new technology products, the tried and true path to success is:

(1.) You build a premium product for the niche market of "innovators" that can both afford it and are willing to try new stuff (and bear the risks - no pussies allowed).

(2.) Then you expand the niche to "early adopters" with still a niche premium product, but with fewer bugs, has fewer trade-offs, but still a premium product (in Tesla's case, more super chargers around, and a model X with more room for example)

(3.) Now that you've validated your premium product, you pivot to the "early majority", early mainstream buyers less tolerant of tradeoffs and more price sensitive. (for tesla this is the model 3 and model y)

There's some stuff after that, but you get the idea: "affordable" is new-product-success-bane, especially for new tech products; in that world, "premium" is where the profits start.
I don't disagree with you, my point was that none of the cars that were in the post I was responding to attainable while there are very many cars in other price points that are good looking and fun.
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      04-02-2020, 07:14 AM   #3629
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
I wasn't aware that there was a price ceiling on what we can consider beautiful?!

The Honda e is not $100k and we all know style trickles down. The Model 3 is doesn't have a lot of character, but it's definitely not an ugly car and is very appealing. It also outperforms almost all other cars under $100k.

Also, if you have driven an i3, you might find it as appealing as I have. It's got a lot of character and I enjoy it's polarizing styling. I'm actually on my 3rd and it's one of the best cars I've ever owned.

Here are some sub-$100k EVs:








The i3 is an ugly car, IMHO and that of many others and the sales numbers support that I think. The Honda isn't a bad looking car. The other in the original post were all very high end examples to support the premise being made. They were drivable and all very expensive.
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      04-02-2020, 07:46 AM   #3630
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model 3 and X look so very ugly i cringe when I see them on the road.
model s doesn't look too bad it could pass off as a budget sedan like ford mondeo.
Tesla roadster looks great.
I3 in black with black wheels etc looks cute like a girls car.
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