Ultimate Spun Crank Hub (SCH) Poll: ALL Members Please Vote!

[FriedPiston]

Originally Posted by Smeargle

voted in wrong spot by accident. voted in "2018+ | 6MT | Modified 500-550 whp | SCH Failure" when I should've voted for the 2018 comp pack equivalent of that vote. Incase anyones wondering car was more or less fbo on 93 stage 2 with about 8k miles on tune. Was driving on the hwy going at it with another m4 in my area, no misshifts overrevs or anything of the sort, then when I get off the hwy I just get the drivetrain malfunction. Was a lightly spun hub, no limp mode but timing was dead. Took off all the mods for stock parts, tuner cleared my car and into the dealer it went. New hub under warranty; car was gone for maybe 3 days.

edit: car had about 15.1k miles when it happened too.

Thanks for sharing! It's refreshing to hear that BMW was willing to warranty the crank hub despite previously being tuned. Others have not had the same fortune as you.

[Smeargle]

Originally Posted by nars3000

Thanks for sharing! It's refreshing to hear that BMW was willing to warranty the crank hub despite previously being tuned. Others have not had the same fortune as you.

yeah it was pretty crazy when it happened cause I always thought if I didn't money shift it then I'd get away with it but even on a my18 car with almost no miles on it, the hub still blew without me doing anything good ol' bmw.

[FriedPiston]

TTT -- let's try to get to 200 votes before end of the year.

[IK6SPEED]

22 Failures out of 194 votes

4 out of 22 Failures on Stock.

Somewhat surprised the percentage has remained consistent over the past 100 votes.

[FriedPiston]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

22 Failures out of 194 votes

4 out of 22 Failures on Stock.

Somewhat surprised the percentage has remained consistent over the past 100 votes.

Hypothetically speaking, if half of the current total views (2608) participated, which you yourself have not done then the failure rate would be more like:

1304 samples
22 failures
------
Failure rate = 1.6%

If a 3rd of the thread views participated, then we'd still only be looking at 2.5% failure rate.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by nars3000

Hypothetically speaking, if half of the current total views (2608) participated, which you yourself have not done then the failure rate would be more like:

1304 samples
22 failures
------
Failure rate = 1.6%

If a 3rd of the thread views participated, then we'd still only be looking at 2.5% failure rate.

Pure speculation with no basis in fact. If you want to throw out fictional numbers, why create a poll or even ask to people to vote in it?

I have posted several times i feel the failure rate is misrepresented. But that it has remained consistent over the last 100 votes is eye opening.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

Pure speculation with no basis in fact. If you want to throw out fictional numbers, why create a poll or even ask to people to vote in it?

I have posted several times i feel the failure rate is misrepresented. But that it has remained consistent over the last 100 votes is eye opening.

This forum is inherently bias and has no basis for what the percentage of SCHs have actually occurred. If you read the thread, there have been three people so far who misclicked.

[Evren]

I have a question; if crack the engine is completely rubbish?

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by r0wr

This forum is inherently bias and has no basis for what the percentage of SCHs have actually occurred. If you read the thread, there have been three people so far who misclicked.

And those people have supposedly messaged the mods to correct.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

And those people have supposedly messaged the mods to correct.

No, that was merely suggested. I'm one of those people who clicked on accident and I haven't asked yet.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by nars3000

Hypothetically speaking, if half of the current total views (2608) participated, which you yourself have not done then the failure rate would be more like:

1304 samples
22 failures
------
Failure rate = 1.6%

If a 3rd of the thread views participated, then we'd still only be looking at 2.5% failure rate.

Again, assumption.

And people that view the thread multiple times are counted each time.

Thus you are giving them a presumptive vote each time they view.

So that assumption based on the metric you listed have no basis in reality.

[Spoolin Montego]

Poll also can't account for the numerous cars which arnt even on the boards. I bet less than 3% of F8x owners actually post here. "Fixing" the hub is a huge waste of time and money in my opinion when it likes effects less than 1 in 1000 cars

[TrueNorthM5]

Originally Posted by Spoolin Montego

Poll also can't account for the numerous cars which arnt even on the boards. I bet less than 3% of F8x owners actually post here. "Fixing" the hub is a huge waste of time and money in my opinion when it likes effects less than 1 in 1000 cars

Your opinion is a bit of a stretch based on what we are seeing here. While I support the idea that we aren't seeing true representation here in the poll, thus skewed data, your opinion that the Crank Hub issue effects less than 1 in 1000 cars is pretty meaningless/uninformed unless you have some other data pool to draw from.

We have at least 22 failures thus far on a board that gets just a small sample of the overall f80/f82 population. It's a pretty staggering number considering our small sample size here of bimmerpost.

[overlook637]

Do we have 22,000 members?

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by overlook637

Do we have 22,000 members?

Well, if you want to use the assumptions above, roughly 36,500 F80s made Worldwise (Fact) and if only 3% are on Bimmerpost, then slightly more than 1000 F80 owners are on Bimmerpost.

The real issue is getting votes for a meaningful sample.

That said, I do find it interesting that 10 of the 23 failures (almost half) thus far are from 2018 Model Year Vehicles. I wonder if that trend will continue with more votes.

Likewise, 2014-2015 is #2 with 8 failures.

2 for MY 2016 and 3 for MY 2017.

I would have bet that the numbers would rise proportionally from the older years forward.

It will be interesting to look at that trend as it’s all statistically unreliable at this point with 215 votes.

[marvinp]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

Well, if you want to use the assumptions above, roughly 36,500 F80s made Worldwise (Fact) and if only 3% are on Bimmerpost, then slightly more than 1000 F80 owners are on Bimmerpost.

The real issue is getting votes for a meaningful sample.

That said, I do find it interesting that 10 of the 23 failures (almost half) thus far are from 2018 Model Year Vehicles. I wonder if that trend will continue with more votes.

Likewise, 2014-2015 is #2 with 8 failures.

2 for MY 2016 and 3 for MY 2017.

I would have bet that the numbers would rise proportionally from the older years forward.

It will be interesting to look at that trend as it’s all statistically unreliable at this point with 215 votes.

The fact that there are more 2018 cars in the polls could be recency bias, where folks who just got their cars are more active in the forums. I don't have anything to back that up but I'd imagine that over time people's interest in the forums will wane and some may move on to other cars after 2+ years.

[Smeargle]

so like, for my vote we gotta now unfortunately count it twice :

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by marvinp

The fact that there are more 2018 cars in the polls could be recency bias, where folks who just got their cars are more active in the forums. I don't have anything to back that up but I'd imagine that over time people's interest in the forums will wane and some may move on to other cars after 2+ years.

Problem with that is that of the 216 votes, only 47 are from 2018+

10 of 47 votes is well over 20%, much higher than any other year.

Furthermore, 98 of the 216, just under half are 2014-2105 vehicles...and again 8 failures of the 98, just under 10%.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by Smeargle

so like, for my vote we gotta now unfortunately count it twice :

Only seeing one in voting.

[Smeargle]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

Only seeing one in voting.

Poll doesn't allow for more than one vote for repeat cases

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by Smeargle

Poll doesn't allow for more than one vote for repeat cases

So you actually had 2 SCH?

[Smeargle]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

So you actually had 2 SCH?

If you get a hub changed(just the hub) which is more often than not the case for warranty claims, the hub is prone to going again shortly after because retiming the motor is a very hard job and most dealers can't do it. So yes.