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      04-21-2020, 07:55 PM   #3169
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
This may sound odd, but i'm concerned about (high) fuel prices over the next few years and beyond ... I've been watching the transition to electric energy and it's happening even faster than I thought. Sorry for the long post ...

People are missing a few things:

* Obviously $0 oil will make fuel cheap in the short-term, but will also kill small oil producing companies and disincent the creation of new ones; as well as hurting Big Oil, halting new projects, etc. Eventually, however, that decreasing supply of newly pumped oil and the decreasing supply of stored oil will get used up ... and it won't be cheap to restart pumping and there won't be as many companies to do it. At a minimum this will cause a delay, plus those companies that have survived will be looking to make up for their losses ...

* It's not ICE vs BEV, it's efficient-energy-point-of-access: when a consumer needs energy for any reason how do they access it? Most things are now electric except cars because it's just more convenient, familiar, and easy-to-use: it's at your house in your outlet. Petrol requires a separate trip ... which might be ok if you're out making trips but WFH, Amazon, covid ...

* Electric energy can be created directly by the consumer and is massively portable: not only can you charge, say, a Goal Zero Yeti battery with solar or wind, you can bring it anywhere with you to power anything with a plug, including using it for a backup generator for storms, etc. That's pretty convenient and removes consumer friction.

* As more devices turn electric (yard tools, etc) economies of scale shift over to them, making them cheaper, more variety, and more available; and simultaneously ICE becomes less available, less variety, and more expensive

* As home delivery increases there's going to be less need for gasoline (incl autonomous BEV delivery testing in Houston with up to 5000 vehicles!) which will disincent pumpers from pumping, refiners from refining, and gas stations from selling. (e.g., Amazon is buying 100,000 BEVs from Rivian for home delivery)

* Institutional investors have turned away from Big Oil leading to people like Jim Cramer calling it "dead" - this effectively makes new projects for oil companies more expensive so they take a double hit: fuel demand is dropping and costs of new projects are rising.

* Obviously all auto manufacturers have massive BEV projects (though they may be put on hold, we'll see), thus the new cars being produced will become more and more BEV, and consumers more easily making a choice for a car that happens to be BEV vs because it's BEV.

* China has committed to being the largest BEV builder by 2025, assuming that sticks, and if covid's lack of ICE traffic decreases people's tolerance for air pollution, and Europe continues with its regulatory trajectory, then the World's #1 and #3 vehicle markets will be full BEV

OTOH, yes, there are 10-20 years of cheap used ICE cars out there, very cheap to own, rural America hates BEVs, no pickup trucks, etc ...

... but if over the next 2 years fuel prices started rising and cheap used electric cars become more prevalent (e.g., Nissan Leaf, Prius, et al), and there are a real variety of BEV trucks (cybertruck, Rivian, Ford) and they're better, etc ...

I'm not making the oh no high gas prices argument, rather in 2-5 years ICE cars might be very hard to sell and used prices could fall significantly (and thus lease prices - at some point - will also increase significantly). For me, for the last 15 years, a fun ICE car has been worth ~$20k-$25k/year but I'm not gonna go higher than that and honestly I'm not sure it's still worth that much, though if there continues to be no ability to travel then maybe it still is ... but there's also no way I'm going to store a car I'm not using or maintain a 5+ year old car so ...

Anyway, if it's not obvious, I wrote this up to think it all through, and I'm pretty sure my line is $20k/year assuming I can use the car most days and do some sport driving a few times/month. If I can't then it's probably not worth that much and I would move that money to other hobbies.

Thanks for listening! Wait. Is anybody still listening? no? That's fair.
Considering we have a Plug In Prius Prime, I know the experience extremely well. I can easily push this car about 1k+ miles before needing to refill again. However, because my father drives with a lead foot now a days, he kind of pulls it down. Generally I can push it to like 30+ miles purely on EV before it switches over. It's even a plus for us since we have solar panels so it isn't really affecting our electric bill. That is why that thread on the PHEV 3er where some whiners are, er well whining. I didn't bother to jump in because most of them don't understand the handiness of having a PHEV car.

Personally, I have always planned on getting a simple DD other than my M3 (or whichever it might end up being at the moment). I thought of a Accord before, of course a Giulia came up too. I am probably going to avoid getting the G20 3er because the seats are uncomfortable for me. Obviously the options for a PHEV is getting more and more numerous but going full EV is probably not going to happen for me. Primarily because we would need to tear out part of our wall to install the faster charging thing necessary to even make it a thing. It takes us 6 hours to charge our 18 Prius Prime. A full EV would take longer than a day. It's far too much of a hassle.
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      04-21-2020, 08:49 PM   #3170
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FYI

As of March 2020, America has approximately 1.2 million megawatts of generation capacity. The largest fuel source for this capacity is natural gas (44%), followed by coal (21%). Nuclear, hydro, and wind together account for about one-quarter of capacity. Solar currently constitutes over 3% of all capacity.


https://www.publicpower.org/resource...ating-capacity


I always thought fuel oil contributed a significant amount to our power grid.
Apparently I was wrong.
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      04-21-2020, 11:34 PM   #3171
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Originally Posted by Captain Blood View Post
As of March 2020, America has approximately 1.2 million megawatts of generation capacity. The largest fuel source for this capacity is natural gas (44%), followed by coal (21%). Nuclear, hydro, and wind together account for about one-quarter of capacity. Solar currently constitutes over 3% of all capacity.
Yeah, definitely, and a few things about America's electrical power generation:

* Our electrical infrastructure desperately needs upgrading, what's cheapest? More on that in a sec

* Consumer micro-generation is now possible, i.e., making their own electrical power to be self-sufficient, and it turns out this is more a lot safer and more secure especially during storms / natural disasters because you don't need so many lines running all over and people can keep power for food, medicine, healthcare, etc. West coast wildfires, east coast hurricanes are examples.

* Current US infrastructure uses "peaker plants" which sit idle 90% of the time and cost hundreds of millions to build, and more to staff and maintain. And, battery peaker plants are 10x cheaper and way more efficient.

* In fact, Elon Musk's 100 MW Australian peaker built with solar and wind won a bet and has been powering Southern Australia for 2 years

* Further, even with older solar technology, it would take ~21,000 square miles of solar to power the entire US - which sounds like a lot until you realize that's a corner of AZ, and according the the US BLM Big Oil leases ~40,000 sq miles of land ... and that doesn't power the entire US and it doesn't include private land for oil, coal lands, refining, etc ... or the ~33,000 sq mi of land for growing corn for ethanol.

In other words, the US could launch an energy revolution economic boom via building new power infrastructure with a highly secure, highly versatile, way cheaper, way cleaner electrical grid. China's gonna, we might as well beat them to it with our own tech!
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He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
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      04-23-2020, 11:36 AM   #3172
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minn19 you might be interested in https://thebulwark.com/february-7-a-...ive-in-infamy/ good piece in the atlantic too but now I can't find it
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      04-23-2020, 11:48 AM   #3173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
minn19 you might be interested in https://thebulwark.com/february-7-a-...ive-in-infamy/ good piece in the atlantic too but now I can't find it
The only possible good thing that could come out of this mess is hopefully moderate Republicans and Independents take a good hard look at all of this. Hopefully they'll see who is currently running the Republicans and the useful idiots that keep them in power. Then take action to remove Trumpism and the Hannity's, Rush's, Ingraham's, McConnell's, Gaetz's etc etc from the party getting back to an actual moral belief system. Not one just based on money and power for the top few percent of the US only for the sake of money and power.

The only way for this to happen is devastating results in this falls election. I have very big doubts that this will happen though. As you know I'm not a big fan of Biden (or his own baggage) and I don't see the Democrats fully taking advantage of the situation in a good way to get back to their moral belief system/roots currently either.
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      04-23-2020, 11:53 AM   #3174
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Arcades this have anything to do with you?
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He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
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      04-24-2020, 12:08 PM   #3175
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Arcades this have anything to do with you?
Nope!

No idea who this is.
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      04-24-2020, 01:54 PM   #3176
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Local news a few weeks back showed the senior village right next to a hotel that OC had a lease. After the protests, OC let the hotel owner out

Hotel owner had already done similar leases, just not next to senior center
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      04-27-2020, 05:30 PM   #3177
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minn19 - this making the news in MN?
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      04-27-2020, 05:36 PM   #3178
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minn19 - this making the news in MN?
Thankfully no and this is the first I’ve heard of him.

Most can’t stand that dbag here anymore.
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      04-28-2020, 04:01 PM   #3179
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Thankfully no and this is the first I’ve heard of him.

Most can’t stand that dbag here anymore.
The last thing anyone should really vote for is a former wrestler.
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      04-28-2020, 05:21 PM   #3180
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The last thing anyone should really vote for is a former wrestler.
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      04-28-2020, 05:54 PM   #3181
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Quote:
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The last thing anyone should really vote for is a former wrestler.
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I’ll admit it, I was young and dumb (24) and got caught up in it. AKA, I voted for a former pro wrestler at one time in my life.

I should’ve voted for Norm.
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      04-28-2020, 05:58 PM   #3182
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Quote:
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minn19 - this making the news in MN?
Thankfully no and this is the first I've heard of him.

Most can't stand that dbag here anymore.
You guys have some really strange ones, politically, in that state. My state has some really bad ones, but maybe not as strange.
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      04-28-2020, 06:28 PM   #3183
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You guys have some really strange ones, politically, in that state. My state has some really bad ones, but maybe not as strange.
Where are you located by the way? I feel like I know this and can’t remember or I should know.

And yes, we’ve had some interesting political characters over the years that’s for sure.
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      04-28-2020, 07:59 PM   #3184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Blood View Post
You guys have some really strange ones, politically, in that state. My state has some really bad ones, but maybe not as strange.
Where are you located by the way? I feel like I know this and can't remember or I should know.

And yes, we've had some interesting political characters over the years that's for sure.
Texas,
Though I've lived in Arizona, multiple towns in California, New Mexico, Washington, Philadelphia, and a few different cities in Texas.
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      04-29-2020, 12:37 AM   #3185
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I’ll admit it, I was young and dumb (24) and got caught up in it. AKA, I voted for a former pro wrestler at one time in my life.
Ha, well I don't think it was that dumb - I remember that election pretty well; Skip was a no-go and Norm just seemed like a spineless dial tone ... Jesse seemed like a bit of a truth teller and I wasn't at all bummed when he was elected. After it became obvious he had no management or administration experience and wasn't going to do anything, then I was bummed. Still - it wasn't that bad and I definitely don't think, "geez, norm woulda been awesome!". It was almost like a mellow pause.

I still remember Jesse coming out onto the steps of the gov mansion to address this crowd of women protesting him suspending funding for single mothers going to college (or similar). First - he actually come out! Second, this lady came up and said, "how are we supposed to afford to raise our kids and pay for college at the same time!" and Jesse said in his drawl, "well, you shoulda thought of that before you had the kids" and the lady was dumbstruck silent.

Granted, not empathetic and probably not good policy, but it was refreshing. To be clear, I support safety nets just not people that expect to be supported.
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      04-29-2020, 04:57 PM   #3186
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Just throwing it out there.

If my M3 is actually up for sale, would anyone be interested?
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      04-29-2020, 05:27 PM   #3187
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Just throwing it out there.

If my M3 is actually up for sale, would anyone be interested?
I think I’m done with BMW altogether. But, your car should stand out as it is beautiful and obviously well taken care of plus tastefully modded.

GLWS
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      04-29-2020, 05:28 PM   #3188
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GrussGott, the little teapot water tower is pretty close to where I live. Lindstrom was the last hockey game I got to watch my daughter play/coached before the shutdowns started.
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      04-29-2020, 06:30 PM   #3189
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GrussGott, the little teapot water tower is pretty close to where I live. Lindstrom was the last hockey game I got to watch my daughter play/coached before the shutdowns started.
Aw, that sucks, sorry about that!

It's my favorite little town, or at least it used to be, haven't been there in awhile, but I bet it's still awesome. Best coffee shops anywhere ... probably all closed now : (
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      04-29-2020, 07:17 PM   #3190
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Aw, that sucks, sorry about that!

It's my favorite little town, or at least it used to be, haven't been there in awhile, but I bet it's still awesome. Best coffee shops anywhere ... probably all closed now : (
It really hasn’t changed all that much, still has some awesome coffee shops, Deutschland Meats and The Swedish Inn restaurant. Hopefully they all survive.
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