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      07-13-2018, 06:23 AM   #1
Amgkiller1017
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Will used F80 M3 prices start to increase since it is ending production soon?

Will the M3 values be going up now that they are ending production in 10/18?
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      07-13-2018, 06:53 AM   #2
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No because G80 is coming...
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      07-13-2018, 06:54 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedoniste View Post
No because G80 is coming...
Yeah but isn't that not until late 2020 or early 2021?
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      07-13-2018, 06:58 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amgkiller1017 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedoniste View Post
No because G80 is coming...
Yeah but isn't that not until late 2020 or early 2021?
Right but it was the same thing with E9x... I think prices will decline the same way.
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      07-13-2018, 07:00 AM   #5
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May stay afloat a little if you bought a manual and they truly get rid of manuals for the G.
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      07-13-2018, 07:23 AM   #6
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      07-13-2018, 07:24 AM   #7
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I don't think values will go up. They may slow down their decline...
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      07-13-2018, 07:38 AM   #8
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Almost all M3's have shown a similar depreciation curve with time and miles. The f8x so far is no different.

The only f8x difference I think I'm seeing is....

1. The four door is holding it's value better than the e90 since it performs the same as the coupe/no sacrifices made.
2. The competition package models are depreciating at the same level as the non-competition levels, as there is an argument to be made that the comp package does not "improve" the car as previous comp packages were perceived to do.
3. If this is the last manual trans m3/m4, those models may wind up commanding a slight premium. This is unclear though.
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      07-13-2018, 07:41 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amgkiller1017 View Post
Yeah but isn't that not until late 2020 or early 2021?
Still possible we will see it about a year sooner than that, like the M5 timeline compared to the G30.

In particular, see SCOTT's recent comment:

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh...6#post23395476
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      07-13-2018, 09:14 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
Still possible we will see it about a year sooner than that, like the M5 timeline compared to the G30.

In particular, see SCOTT's recent comment:

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh...6#post23395476
Interesting. What is he saying there? The next M4 will not simply be a 2 door version of the M3 but something completely different?
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      07-13-2018, 09:21 AM   #11
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No. I don’t think people shopping for a new car will just jump into the used market and increase demand just because the F80 production ends. They will wait for the new generation or buy an alternative.
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      07-13-2018, 09:27 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cotmfk View Post
I don't think values will go up. They may slow down their decline...
This. People shopping for M3/4 will have to look at used market, that will decrease supply. Prices won't increase but should hold.

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Originally Posted by RickFLM4 View Post
No. I don’t think people shopping for a new car will just jump into the used market and increase demand just because the F80 production ends. They will wait for the new generation or buy an alternative.
Certainly for some, buying an alternative means looking at used F80s.
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      07-13-2018, 09:42 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsublime View Post
Certainly for some, buying an alternative means looking at used F80s.
Not if they want a new car. There are far more buyers in the market than enthusiasts on this forum and I don't expect them to be so brand / model loyal that anywhere near a majority switch from wanting new to buying used. Aside from those who are able to go with a similar car in a coupe (M4 / RS5 / C63S), those who need 4 doors can look to C63S / Giulia sedans and even SUVs, such as the X3M, Macan, etc.

I'm sure a few will flip to used, but nowhere near enough to move the needle on used car prices, and some of those flipping to used may consider other used alternatives including, for example, a 911. The M3 is a mass produced car with many alternatives in various configurations, not to mention the option of just sitting tight until the next generation is available.
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      07-13-2018, 09:48 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gatorfast View Post
Interesting. What is he saying there? The next M4 will not simply be a 2 door version of the M3 but something completely different?
I don't think it will be "completely different" - they'll still share similar versions of the CLAR vehicle matrix and most drivetrain components - but the implication is that it will have its own visual identity similar to how the M6 (now M8) is not merely an M5 coupe.

The important point in the context of market timing is that the M3 would then no longer borrow its front end from the M4. This would free up the M3 to go into production earlier, no longer having to wait for the M4. We should know soon if this is happening for certain. More revealing G80 spy shots should arrive shortly if this is the plan, and more importantly, they would need to reveal that the M3 is sharing the 3 Series headlights (which it already appears is the case, but given the camo and how similar the Series coupe/sedan headlights look in the current generation, its not 100%).
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      07-13-2018, 10:58 AM   #15
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The G80 sharing headlights with the 3 series would be a negative in my book.

One of the unique things about the F80 (and previous iterations of the 4 door M3) is the unique blend of coupe headlights with sedan body - the only way to get that mix was to get an M (the gran coupe released for the F generation being an exception).
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      07-13-2018, 12:48 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amgkiller1017 View Post
Will the M3 values be going up now that they are ending production in 10/18?
Not with all the F80s now coming off lease.
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      07-13-2018, 02:38 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JibSTir13 View Post
The G80 sharing headlights with the 3 series would be a negative in my book.

One of the unique things about the F80 (and previous iterations of the 4 door M3) is the unique blend of coupe headlights with sedan body - the only way to get that mix was to get an M (the gran coupe released for the F generation being an exception).
With the rumors of a M4 Gran Coupe for the next generation, I think they'll likely have to visually differentiate M3 and M4 Gran Coupe.
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      07-13-2018, 02:52 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinp View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JibSTir13 View Post
The G80 sharing headlights with the 3 series would be a negative in my book.

One of the unique things about the F80 (and previous iterations of the 4 door M3) is the unique blend of coupe headlights with sedan body - the only way to get that mix was to get an M (the gran coupe released for the F generation being an exception).
With the rumors of a M4 Gran Coupe for the next generation, I think they'll likely have to visually differentiate M3 and M4 Gran Coupe.


When will it end with all the variants??
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      07-13-2018, 03:16 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth One View Post


When will it end with all the variants??
So many variants, not counting the standard series, we have M lites, Ms, MZCP, MCS, MGTS. 5 M variations in one series now?
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      07-14-2018, 10:15 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeFromPA View Post

2. The competition package models are depreciating at the same level as the non-competition levels, as there is an argument to be made that the comp package does not "improve" the car as previous comp packages were perceived to do.
I’m in this camp. The comp package didn’t exist when I bought my ‘15 F80, and it didn’t represent much value for me when I bought my ‘18. Yes, it offers a little more power, but the styling cues and everything else didn’t add up to what BMW was charging. To each his/her own.
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      07-14-2018, 11:08 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amgkiller1017 View Post
Will the M3 values be going up now that they are ending production in 10/18?
I think as a whole market, they will continue to depreciate like normal. However, if you have a clean F80, in the right color combo, with 6MT and CP, you as an individual have a good chance of commanding a premium to the right buyer. Maybe not yet since there's still new F80's on dealer lots. But in like 6 months from now when all the new ones are sold and there's still a good chunk of time before the next gen delivers - I believe we'll see a short lived spike in used F80 sales (for the right specific individual not the market average as a whole).

A similar thing was happening when the M2's stopped production for a short period of time in between model year - I forget if it was 2016 to 2017 maybe? There was a small period of time where you couldn't get one new.

And a clean used M2 was commanding new car prices - but it was short lived. Generally speaking, that was a bad deal for the buyer. But to an individual buyer and an individual seller people were making deals at those prices.

My theory is all assuming that there a RWD and 6MT is available in the new M3 model. If that's not the case then I do believe there will be an increase in F80 MT values. Not Porsche 993 like. But a lesser depreciation to normal M3/M4 values.
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      07-14-2018, 04:35 PM   #22
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F8x might be the last generation with hand parking brake, 6MT, DCT, analogue gages, carbon drive shaft, etc. These may be important to a subset of the enthusiast community that would hold onto their car rather than trade up or go to another brand and may reduce supply of clean unmodded examples.
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