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      03-10-2020, 01:33 AM   #23
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After today's trading everyone was dumping DCTs and 6 spd manuals are holding strong at 2/10ths% on the S&P📉
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      03-10-2020, 05:48 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doug_999 View Post
Well, that would be cool - alas, to make that even close to statistically correct, we would see 5.4x times more DCT responses to the 6MT (for both non spun and spun combined).

But we don't - my late night calculation says 540 people with DCT responded vs. 245 with manual.

So the entire thing is bunk - but I think we knew that.
The 5.4x ratio I used is the actual F80 worldwide production ratio of DCT vs 6MT. The reason I used that number is because it is fair to assume that the vast majority of folks who have not spun their crank hub have not responded to the poll. But like I said, highly unscientific... .

But even using your numbers from the poll respondents, the 6MT is still 1.3x more likely to experience a SCH. IMO, saying that DCT are more prone to suffer a SCH is really what is bunk.
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Last edited by CanAutM3; 03-10-2020 at 07:24 AM..
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      03-10-2020, 07:58 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
Well, in my area, the cheapest M3/4 are all 6MT. I am not sure a snapshot taken on a given day in a given area tells much...

Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
That thread has the number of reported no SCH. You can't extrapolate like that since e.g. grandmas driving an M4 aren't likely on the forum.
I have not voted on that thread and I have not spun my crank hub. With over 100+ combined track days on my F8X, I sure don't drive like a grandma. There are many others who have not spun their crank hub that have not voted on this thread. My point is that we can get the numbers to say anything we want...
Basically, anyone can spin numbers just as easy as a crank hub.
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      03-10-2020, 07:58 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Habber View Post
Basically, anyone can spin numbers just as easy as a crank hub.
^ This, albeit spinning the crank hub is not "that easy" .
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      03-10-2020, 08:45 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
But even using your numbers from the poll respondents, the 6MT is still 1.3x more likely to experience a SCH. IMO, saying that DCT are more prone to suffer a SCH is really what is bunk.
What if you found out that there are more 6-speed owners on this board than DCT? Cause you know the percentage right?

and go talk to your dealer up there - ask them what they see more of.
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      03-10-2020, 09:15 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by doug_999 View Post
What if you found out that there are more 6-speed owners on this board than DCT? Cause you know the percentage right?

and go talk to your dealer up there - ask them what they see more of.
I am not sure what point you are trying to make ...
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      03-10-2020, 09:48 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
Well, in my area, the cheapest M3/4 are all 6MT. I am not sure a snapshot taken on a given day in a given area tells much...
You and Habber are in Canada - I think there's some confusion about the "given area"- it's not just any area. 500 miles from San Francisco includes Monterey (ever heard of Monterey Car Week?), Los Angeles, and many more cities. This sample market is 15+ million people, and California is a huge car market and arguably a major driver of car trends. There's a reason why you can drive a Ferrari California but not a Ferrari Quebec.

It's clear that there is a price premium for manual 4 doors in the California market for M3/M4 - someone on this thread already said they shipped a car to California from the east coast due to this.
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      03-10-2020, 09:59 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
I am not sure what point you are trying to make ...
Well this is an international board right? And per your numbers there are 5.4x more DCT owners than 6-speed - except, wait, are there more people with 6-speeds on this board than DCT? What would that do to your numbers?

Go get the book Freakanomics - eye opening.
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      03-10-2020, 03:52 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doug_999 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
I am not sure what point you are trying to make ...
Well this is an international board right? And per your numbers there are 5.4x more DCT owners than 6-speed - except, wait, are there more people with 6-speeds on this board than DCT? What would that do to your numbers?

Go get the book Freakanomics - eye opening.
And your point is ????…

I'll try to clarify mine: There is no statistical evidence that demonstrates either transmission to be more prone to the SCH issue. IMO, it solely related to the S55 engine itself.
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Last edited by CanAutM3; 03-10-2020 at 05:03 PM..
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      03-10-2020, 03:55 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
You and Habber are in Canada - I think there's some confusion about the "given area"- it's not just any area. 500 miles from San Francisco includes Monterey (ever heard of Monterey Car Week?), Los Angeles, and many more cities. This sample market is 15+ million people, and California is a huge car market and arguably a major driver of car trends. There's a reason why you can drive a Ferrari California but not a Ferrari Quebec.

It's clear that there is a price premium for manual 4 doors in the California market for M3/M4 - someone on this thread already said they shipped a car to California from the east coast due to this.
OK, understood: you are looking at a very specific area . You might want to change your thread title accordingly then.
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