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      03-26-2020, 12:37 AM   #2619
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
How about you re-read the last 30 or so pages of this thread so we don't have to tell you personally what has already been said to the dozens of others like you? Or, for a similar effect, just https://lmgtfy.com/?q=how+coronaviru...t+from+flu&s=l
See article I just posted about seasonal flu from US News, 14,000 people have died of seasonal flu in 2019-20 season vs. less than 1000 of Coronavirus for which everyone has gone hyterical over and hoarded toilet paper. Maybe just get a bidet.
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      03-26-2020, 12:39 AM   #2620
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Originally Posted by bimmer456 View Post
See article I just posted about seasonal flu from US News, 14,000 people have died of seasonal flu in 2019-20 season vs. less than 1000 of Coronavirus for which everyone has gone hyterical over and hoarded toilet paper. Maybe just get a bidet.
Which letter in the word "exponential" do you not understand?
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      03-26-2020, 12:45 AM   #2621
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
Which letter in the word "exponential" do you not understand?
According to this article the flu is deadlier:
https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year
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      03-26-2020, 12:56 AM   #2622
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Originally Posted by bimmer456 View Post
According to this article the flu is deadlier:
https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year
I am constantly surprised how many truly dumb people there are on this forum. I guess money doesn’t buy brains.
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      03-26-2020, 02:03 AM   #2623
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The cost of removing restrictions after two weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...n-america.html
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      03-26-2020, 04:32 AM   #2624
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
The cost of removing restrictions after two weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...n-america.html
Paywall and mexico propaganda outlet.
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      03-26-2020, 04:37 AM   #2625
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
The cost of removing restrictions after two weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...n-america.html
This seems like completed bullshit, they are taking guesses without even paying attention to what's going on in other countries. Anyone can underwrite something with worst case scenarios, it takes actual skill to get it right.
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      03-26-2020, 06:04 AM   #2626
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Does anyone know (and have a source) for the survival rate of COVID-19 patients who are put on respirators?
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      03-26-2020, 06:21 AM   #2627
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Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
Does anyone know (and have a source) for the survival rate of COVID-19 patients who are put on respirators?
Higher than those who aren't. The survival rate for folks having myocardial infarction (heart attacks) that require life supporting intervention, CPR-defibrillation is something like 2%, and yet how much time and money are spend on CPR training and defibrillators in public places etc.
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      03-26-2020, 06:23 AM   #2628
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
Higher than those who aren't. The survival rate for folks having myocardial infarction (heart attacks) that require life supporting intervention, CPR-defibrillation is something like 2%, and yet how much time and money are spend on CPR training and defibrillators in public places etc.
A doc in the Bay Area told me it is zero. If that was true, I wouldn’t think there would be such a rush to get ventilators. Wondering if there is data out there yet on this (and I know there are a lot of unresolved cases still on ventilators).
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      03-26-2020, 06:35 AM   #2629
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Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
A doc in the Bay Area told me it is zero. If that was true, I wouldn’t think there would be such a rush to get ventilators. Wondering if there is data out there yet on this (and I know there are a lot of unresolved cases still on ventilators).
So here are some excerpts from the linked article, it appears that New Orleans has been pretty hard hit with estimates that 1 in 1000 have the virus:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics...s-coronavirus/

“I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.”

“We have an observation unit in the hospital, and we have been admitting patients that had tested positive or are presumptive positive — these are patients that had been in contact with people who were positive. We go and check vitals on patients every four hours, and some are on a continuous cardiac monitor, so we see that their heart rate has a sudden increase or decrease, or someone goes in and sees that the patient is struggling to breathe or is unresponsive. That seems to be what happens to a lot of these patients: They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.”

“It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%. The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator. The additional pressure helps the oxygen go into the bloodstream.
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      03-26-2020, 07:16 AM   #2630
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FYI.

GREENVILLE, SC (FOX Carolina) - Prisma Health announced Wednesday they have developed an innovative ventilator device for COVID-19 patients.

An ER physician at Prisma Health named Sarah Farris invented the device, which officials said allows one ventilator to serve up to four patients at one time. Farris worked with her husband, who is a software engineer named Ryan Farris, and a Prisma Health pulmonologist, named Antine Stenbit, to develop the device, called Vesper.

The Vesper is a 3D-printed device that Prisma said is made from material already in use for medical devised and produced for minimal cost.

Officials said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has granted emergency use authorization for this ventilators.


https://www.foxcarolina.com/news/pri...73df8214a.html
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      03-26-2020, 07:42 AM   #2631
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Garage List
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Translated from Dutch:

Bmw drivers are proud. They already have been keeping 1.5 meter distance for years now.

Some humor in times of misery
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      03-26-2020, 07:46 AM   #2632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bimmer456 View Post
Looks to me like covid isn't much worse than H1N1 which originated in the US or Mexico. Not sure why we have to close all the schools and businesses with the very low fatality rate and so far only a few hundred people have died.
I felt like you a month ago. But I didn't turn of my brain. The death rate m ay not be that bad but the rate of hospitalization is truly through the roof. Have you noticed, ventilators are at a premium. And when these people code suddenly, they are dead before the Nurses and docs can double suit up. They are doing more and more DNR orders.

I don't always agree with chris but he is right and you are DEAD wrong.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/hospi...ment-shortages
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      03-26-2020, 07:51 AM   #2633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adc100 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by bimmer456 View Post
Looks to me like covid isn't much worse than H1N1 which originated in the US or Mexico. Not sure why we have to close all the schools and businesses with the very low fatality rate and so far only a few hundred people have died.
I felt like you a month ago. But I didn't turn of my brain. The death rate m ay not be that bad but the rate of hospitalization is truly through the roof. Have you noticed, ventilators are at a premium. And when these people code suddenly, they are dead before the Nurses and docs can double suit up. They are doing more and more DNR orders.

I don't always agree with chris but he is right and you are DEAD wrong.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/hospi...ment-shortages
Saw this article. Granted it's a few days old as the UK is on lockdown. There is evidence social distancing doesn't work and Taiwan and Japan did not have draconian lockdowns yet there health systems aren't overwhelmed dispute some missteps early on. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/
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      03-26-2020, 08:00 AM   #2634
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
There are two problems here. One is described on the page where this guy discusses the underlying models:

The other is my own: I don't see him trying to figure out how sensitive his model is to the input error (and I think we can all agree the current data is far from being precise and complete). Since we're still at the bottom of the exponential side of the Gompertz curve, intuitively I want to say input errors should swing the maximum both horizontally and vertically pretty wildly, but someone with more time than me should try and test this to really know the answer.
Like most publicly known models right now, they're based primarily on John Hopkins University's data collection. The models built are simple. Kaggle.com has some good data that can be used, but to get detailed data you'll more than likely need to be contracted by someone and sign an NDA and do some HIPAA compliance stuff.

The data is being continuously improved and it's the best we've got right now. The models being built by biostatisticians or other math-heavy professions are where I prefer to get my information about where things might be going. Nobody really knows though.
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      03-26-2020, 08:11 AM   #2635
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US death rate far below the never ending doom and fear porn you hear about in Italy and Spain.

https://mises.org/wire/uss-covid-19-...taly-and-spain
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      03-26-2020, 08:18 AM   #2636
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you really don't get it do you?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
US death rate far below the never ending doom and fear porn you hear about in Italy and Spain.

https://mises.org/wire/uss-covid-19-...taly-and-spain
No one is arguing that the U.S. didn't succeed in delaying the spread of the virus. But Trump's vaunted borders aren't going to help in the next two or three weeks.
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      03-26-2020, 08:32 AM   #2637
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Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
US death rate far below the never ending doom and fear porn you hear about in Italy and Spain.

https://mises.org/wire/uss-covid-19-...taly-and-spain
I was watching an interview earlier, you might have posted it, it was from Germany. They were stating Italy is only testing people with severe symptoms and the dead. Where Germany and South Korea are testing as many as they can. Death rates in Germany and South Korea are probably the most accurate we have right now.
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      03-26-2020, 08:33 AM   #2638
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BimmerBoomer;25970749[B
]No one is arguing that the U.S. didn't succeed in delaying the spread of the virus.[/B] But Trump's vaunted borders aren't going to help in the next two or three weeks.
Actually a lot of us were (no point in doing it now since we are where we are) because the US didn't really succeed in doing this. Communities are playing catch up now and trying to with the social distancing/shelter in place orders. But, as you can see it is quickly marching through major cities on the coasts and working its way into the interior of the US.
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      03-26-2020, 08:35 AM   #2639
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BimmerBoomer View Post
No one is arguing that the U.S. didn't succeed in delaying the spread of the virus. But Trump's vaunted borders aren't going to help in the next two or three weeks.
Ann of course you give him no credit to cutting off travel with china 7 weeks ago that has literally saved thousands of American lives.
TDS is strong with you my friend.

Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
Actually a lot of us were (no point in doing it now since we are where we are) because the US didn't really succeed in doing this. Communities are playing catch up now and trying to with the social distancing/shelter in place orders. But, as you can see it is quickly marching through major cities on the coasts and working its way into the interior of the US.
Even in spite of way more testing the number of new infections in the U.S. went from doubling every 2 days on Sunday to every 4.7 cays by Wed. That is phenomenal news Minn!!

There is probably a convoy of new yorkers headed to gopherland as we speak

Last edited by adc100; 03-26-2020 at 08:42 AM..
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      03-26-2020, 08:41 AM   #2640
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well...

Quote:
Originally Posted by adc100 View Post
Ann of course you give him no credit to cutting off travel with china 7 weeks ago that has literally saved thousands of American lives.
TDS is strong with you my friend.
If he had the sense to use the time you gained productively I would have no problem giving him credit. As it is, we'll have to see where mortality per capita stands at the end of the first wave in another month or two.
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