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      02-25-2020, 01:51 AM   #1
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6MT M3 commanding a heavy premium?

EDIT July 8, 2020:
The cheapest 6MT M3 500 miles from San Francisco is $46,995.
The cheapest DCT/6MT M3/M4 500 miles from San Francisco is $35,777.
The cheapest 6MT M3 across America is $42,950.

EDIT June 5, 2020:
The cheapest 6MT M3 500 miles from San Francisco is $43,439.
The cheapest DCT/6MT M3/M4 500 miles from San Francisco is $29,995.
The cheapest 6MT M3 across America is $38,490.

EDIT April 21, 2020 (with the pandemic in mind):
The cheapest 6MT M3 500 miles from San Francisco is $37,500.
The cheapest DCT/6MT M3/M4 500 miles from San Francisco is $31,900.


EDIT March 9, 2020:
The cheapest 6MT M3 500 miles from San Francisco is $39,250.
The cheapest 6MT/DCT M3/M4 500 miles from San Francisco is $35,995.

The cheapest M3 6MT 500 miles near San Francisco is $39.5k - ignoring the California premium, what makes the 6MT M3 command a large premium over a DCT M3/M4? Do you think it will be similar to a convertible E46 M3 vs 6MT coupe E46 M3? (e.g. 2-3x value difference)

Also, here is an interesting graph of M3 price trends from carguru. When was the last time a relatively new luxury german sedan went up in value?


Last edited by _robert_; 07-07-2020 at 11:57 PM..
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      02-25-2020, 11:13 AM   #2
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My guess? DCT is more common, and as time goes on the DCT tech will lose its luster and become obsolete. Manual never be becomes obsolete, and there are less of them.

Look back at every previous M3. Do you think the manual of its iteration of automatic is more desirable?

Answer is the same: Manual.
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      02-25-2020, 11:36 AM   #3
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I'm still impressed by the pairing of the transmission and engine. Such a great experience!
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      02-25-2020, 02:25 PM   #4
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I ended up shipping mine from the east coast to CA since all the 6pd's were either overpriced or were scooped up too fast.
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      02-25-2020, 02:58 PM   #5
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6MT has the perception of being desirable within the enthusiast community and has a much lower inventory - those two factors make it worth more on resale. I think they will continue to hold a premium relative to the market price of a comparable DCT car, as they always do as performance cars age.

I do think that the F8X is engineered as DCT focused platform and doesn't necessarily have the features that seemingly make a manual E30, 36, and 46 so highly prized - NA high revving motor, lightweight & nimble chasis, short wheelbase, awful SMG alternative (E46 specific), etc. So i'm interested to see how much higher value holds for 6MT over time with the F8X platform specifically.

None of this is an opinion of 6MT vs DCT btw... not trying to derail the thread with that BS.
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      02-25-2020, 03:18 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RugbyBro View Post
6MT has the perception of being desirable within the enthusiast community and has a much lower inventory - those two factors make it worth more on resale. I think they will continue to hold a premium relative to the market price of a comparable DCT car, as they always do as performance cars age.

I do think that the F8X is engineered as DCT focused platform and doesn't necessarily have the features that seemingly make a manual E30, 36, and 46 so highly prized - NA high revving motor, lightweight & nimble chasis, short wheelbase, awful SMG alternative (E46 specific), etc. So i'm interested to see how much higher value holds for 6MT over time with the F8X platform specifically.

None of this is an opinion of 6MT vs DCT btw... not trying to derail the thread with that BS.
Spun Crank Hub happens way more often for DCT though - it often only happens for 6MT due to over-rev/lack of manual skills.

SCH is not great for the reputation of the platform - it will be the "water pump" of the car.
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      02-25-2020, 03:34 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
Spun Crank Hub happens way more often for DCT though - it often only happens for 6MT due to over-rev/lack of manual skills.

SCH is not great for the reputation of the platform - it will be the "water pump" of the car.
I personally don't think SCH is an endemic issue and AFAIK there are no verifiable statistics on this occurring across a sample set that would accurately represent the distribution of ownership. There is a lot of unsubstantiated info out there (and on this forum) that seems to suggest, among other things, that DCT can play into it but I don't see it hurting resale value of DCTs or 6MTs in the future, possibly until the F8Xs stop depreciating and are sitting at $20k. Even then I think other items like maintenance records will be much more important since at that point, you're opened up to a much larger market with cars that are likely to be very high mileage.

Also not trying to "spin" this thread into a SCH thread, don't want to deal with that BS either. (As in the back and forth between SCH and Non-SCH people)
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Last edited by RugbyBro; 02-25-2020 at 03:39 PM.. Reason: clarification
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      02-25-2020, 05:00 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
SCH is not great for the reputation of the platform - it will be the "water pump" of the car.
haha good comparison.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RugbyBro View Post
I personally don't think SCH is an endemic issue and AFAIK there are no verifiable statistics on this occurring across a sample set that would accurately represent the distribution of ownership. There is a lot of unsubstantiated info out there (and on this forum) that seems to suggest, among other things, that DCT can play into it but I don't see it hurting resale value of DCTs or 6MTs in the future, possibly until the F8Xs stop depreciating and are sitting at $20k. Even then I think other items like maintenance records will be much more important since at that point, you're opened up to a much larger market with cars that are likely to be very high mileage.
Agreed. Having a complete list of maintenance records will vastly outweigh the SCH "issue". SCH seems to be few and far between unless pushing higher boost and incorrect downshifting.
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      02-27-2020, 10:54 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sassicaia View Post
Manual never be becomes obsolete, and there are less of them.
The flip side of that is: there are fewer 6MTs out there because there was less demand for them from the customers in the first place.

Now, you could argue that 6MT might have lower cost of ownership over the long term, thus the used car market may have higher % demand for 6MT vs. DCT.

a
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      02-27-2020, 06:53 PM   #10
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I will sell my 6mt for $80k to anyone interested
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      02-28-2020, 08:39 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
Spun Crank Hub happens way more often for DCT though - it often only happens for 6MT due to over-rev/lack of manual skills.

SCH is not great for the reputation of the platform - it will be the "water pump" of the car.
I agree and mostly agree; I spun my CH with my manual, and yes, its because I went from 3-2 at WOT (went to do 3-4 but mispositioned my hand). I've driven manuals my whole adulthood life, laid down some good track times with a manual; but, I'm only human. An Accident happened

This was also 2 hours after doing stage 2 BM3 tune -- totally unrelated, it was 100% operator error.
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      03-09-2020, 12:16 PM   #12
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It is looking like the F80 M3 is actually a pretty darn reliable car. Alas, with no new one coming tomorrow (it is late next year I think), I think people are starting to realize "crap, this car is pretty good"

nice video here explaining how there really is not much out there that is better.


and yes, Manuals were much lower production - and want one with a sunroof? Good luck!

and man, I agree, the SCH thing is so over blown.
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      03-09-2020, 12:59 PM   #13
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I got an f82 6 speed with sunroof
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      03-09-2020, 05:35 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by David0ff View Post
I got an f82 6 speed with sunroof
No one cares for f82.
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      03-09-2020, 05:37 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
Spun Crank Hub happens way more often for DCT though - it often only happens for 6MT due to over-rev/lack of manual skills.

SCH is not great for the reputation of the platform - it will be the "water pump" of the car.
That is mostly to do with the fact that there are significantly LESS manual cars. Therefore the chance of you seeing someone post about a SCH with a 6mt will already by default be lower.
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      03-09-2020, 07:02 PM   #16
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I don't really get the point of your thread. There's nothing in the OP that substantiates the claim of the thread title...
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      03-09-2020, 08:10 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGames View Post
That is mostly to do with the fact that there are significantly LESS manual cars. Therefore the chance of you seeing someone post about a SCH with a 6mt will already by default be lower.
mostly cause it just doesn't happen with the manual cars... I've talked to my dealer, they have had almost ZERO cases of SCH (even with DCT) - it just doesn't happen.... so overblown it is not even funny

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I got an f82 6 speed with sunroof
To be fair, you can still order one of those
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      03-09-2020, 08:21 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
Spun Crank Hub happens way more often for DCT though - it often only happens for 6MT due to over-rev/lack of manual skills.

SCH is not great for the reputation of the platform - it will be the "water pump" of the car.
Doing a very un-scientific statistical analysis:

Based on this thread, there are 32 SCH 6MT reported events vs 55 for DCT. Since the DCT outsells the 6MT 5.4x to 1, this means that a 6MT is 3.14 times more likely to suffer a spun crank hub than a DCT .
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      03-09-2020, 08:56 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
I don't really get the point of your thread. There's nothing in the OP that substantiates the claim of the thread title...
The cheapest 6MT M3 500 miles from San Francisco is $39,250.

The cheapest 6MT/DCT M3/M4 500 miles from San Francisco is $35,995.

There are currently 19 M3/M4 cars cheaper than the 6MT M3 in the sample market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
Doing a very un-scientific statistical analysis:

Based on this thread, there are 32 SCH 6MT reported events vs 55 for DCT. Since the DCT outsells the 6MT 5.4x to 1, this means that a 6MT is 3.14 times more likely to suffer a spun crank hub than a DCT .
That thread has the number of reported no SCH. You can't extrapolate like that since e.g. grandmas driving an M4 aren't likely on the forum.

Last edited by _robert_; 03-09-2020 at 09:05 PM..
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      03-09-2020, 10:22 PM   #20
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The best explanation I heard was that new car buyers and used car buyers are different.

Most new car buyers want the best and fastest (ie DCT) which doesn’t necessarily means the best residual. When they are finished (lease) with the car they buy another new car.

Most second hand buyers for M3/M4 are car enthusiast looking for driving experience and pleasure. They are cost and maintenance conscientious and concern about future repairs.
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      03-09-2020, 10:30 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
Well, in my area, the cheapest M3/4 are all 6MT. I am not sure a snapshot taken on a given day in a given area tells much...

Quote:
Originally Posted by _robert_ View Post
That thread has the number of reported no SCH. You can't extrapolate like that since e.g. grandmas driving an M4 aren't likely on the forum.
I have not voted on that thread and I have not spun my crank hub. With over 100+ combined track days on my F8X, I sure don't drive like a grandma. There are many others who have not spun their crank hub that have not voted on this thread. My point is that we can get the numbers to say anything we want...
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      03-09-2020, 11:21 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanAutM3 View Post
Doing a very un-scientific statistical analysis:

Based on this thread, there are 32 SCH 6MT reported events vs 55 for DCT. Since the DCT outsells the 6MT 5.4x to 1, this means that a 6MT is 3.14 times more likely to suffer a spun crank hub than a DCT .
Well, that would be cool - alas, to make that even close to statistically correct, we would see 5.4x times more DCT responses to the 6MT (for both non spun and spun combined).

But we don't - my late night calculation says 540 people with DCT responded vs. 245 with manual.

So the entire thing is bunk - but I think we knew that.
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